Lecce vs Bologna

Lecce host Bologna at the Stadio Via del Mare on Sunday with both sides desperate for a lift in Serie A's sixth round. The hosts sit 12th on 6 points from 5 games, while Bologna are languishing in 18th with just 2 points, making this a genuine six-pointer even at this early stage.

The model leans toward the home side, giving Lecce a 37.9 percent win probability at 75 percent confidence, with the double chance 1X priced at 70.1 percent. Form is hardly inspiring: Lecce arrive on LWLLW, Bologna on DLDLL and winless. The expected goals picture is tight, with Lecce at 1.0939 and Bologna at 0.939, though recent attacking output tells a different story, Bologna creating 1.58 xG against Lecce's 1.16. Injuries bite both squads, with Lecce missing five including Banda and Berisha, and Bologna without six, notably Orsolini and Dovbyk.

Where might value hide? The model flags Under 2.5 at 54.9 percent and BTTS No at 54.4 percent, both pointing to a scrappy, low-scoring affair. The correct score favourite is 1-0 at 12.98 percent, with 2-0 at 7.84 and 2-1 at 7.36. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 50 percent against an expected 9.5. The draw carries 32.5 percent at 74 percent confidence, a reminder this could easily stall.

The honest caveat: Bologna's recent xG of 1.58 suggests they create more than their league position implies, and with both attacks depleted, a single set-piece could flip a tight script. Treat the home tip as marginal, not commanding.