Our model gives Nashville SC win a 90% confidence rating
Regular Season , Round 17
Thursday, July 16
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:30 | DLDWW |
CF Montreal
vs
Toronto FC
|
LLLLD | 85% | 57.6% | Home | N/A | β |
Friday, July 17
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:30 | WWWLL |
Chicago Fire
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
|
WLWDD | 79% | 45.6% | Home | N/A | β |
| 03:30 | WDWWL |
St. Louis City
vs
Sporting Kansas City
|
LWWLD | 86% | 59% | Home | N/A | β |
| 05:30 | LLWDD |
Seattle Sounders
vs
Portland Timbers
|
LLDWL | 67% | 22.2% | Draw | N/A | β |
Saturday, July 18
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 | WWWDL |
Nashville SC
vs
Atlanta United FC
|
LLDLW | 90% | 66.2% | Home | N/A | β |
| 05:45 | DWLWD |
Los Angeles Galaxy
vs
Los Angeles FC
|
WLLLL | 80% | 47.9% | Home | N/A | β |
Top Trends from Major League Soccer Teams
In their 10 most recent matches, Philadelphia Union have achieved just 1 wins
Inter Miami are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
In their 10 most recent matches, San Diego have achieved just 1 wins
Toronto FC have failed to win in their last 8 matches
In their 10 most recent matches, Sporting Kansas City have achieved just 2 wins
Seattle Sounders are unbeaten in 8 of their 10 most recent matches
Predictlix Major League Soccer Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: July 4, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Nashville SC's clash with Atlanta United FC in Regular Season - 17 stands out as the strongest signal across this window. PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine assigns a 90% confidence level to the home win, driven by a commanding home lambda of 2.4457 against Atlanta's meager 1.0735 away figure. St. Louis City also shows strong home edge at 86% confidence, while New England Revolution matches that mark against Toronto FC. The betting takeaway: back Nashville SC moneyline at odds around -250 given the 66.2% probability and massive attacking disparity.
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
Chicago Fire host Vancouver Whitecaps with strong goal-scoring indicators. PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine shows a 75.7% BTTS probability and 78% Over 2.5 likelihood, backed by lambdas of 2.28 and 1.94. FC Cincinnati versus Vancouver also leans Over, with a 76.5% Over 2.5 rate and a 74.7% BTTS chance. Conversely, Seattle Sounders against Portland Timbers trends Under, with only a 43.3% Over 2.5 probability and lower attacking lambdas. Back Over 2.5 in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps at 78% confidence.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Columbus Crew carry the hottest streak in this window, riding a five-match winning run according to recent form. Los Angeles Galaxy also boast considerable momentum with four victories on the bounce. On the flip side, Toronto FC are mired in a difficult spell, having lost their last four outings. Sporting Kansas City are similarly struggling, winless across five consecutive matches. These contrasting patterns give PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine clear indicators for the upcoming regular season clashes.
Head-to-Head & Historical Edge
Nashville SC holds a clear historical edge over Atlanta United FC, winning five of their last seven meetings while keeping four clean sheets. That defensive solidity at home is a key pattern. St. Louis City also dominates this rivalry with Sporting Kansas City, unbeaten in seven straight and winning four of the last five. Goals have been scarce, with three of those four wins featuring a single goal margin. PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine reflects these strong home trends.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Several teams display contrasting defensive profiles across this window. Nashville SC and Columbus Crew both concede under one goal per game on average, forming a strong foundation. Conversely, Toronto FC and Vancouver Whitecaps appear vulnerable, shipping over 1.5 goals per match and rarely keeping clean sheets. CF Montreal sits somewhere in the middle, solid at home but inconsistent away. Chicago Fire and San Jose Earthquakes have shown recent defensive improvement in their latest outings.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Across this Major League Soccer window spanning Regular Season rounds 17 and 18, every fixture carries genuine stakes. The Los Angeles Galaxy host their crosstown rivals Los Angeles FC in a clash where positioning in the Western Conference table is paramount. Atlanta United FC face a challenging double-header, visiting Nashville SC before traveling to Charlotte, testing their consistency. Chicago Fire meet Vancouver Whitecaps twice in this window, a demanding schedule that will test squad depth. Columbus Crew welcome New York City FC with both sides aiming to solidify their playoff credentials. No fixture is a dead rubber.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Nashville SC's 90 confidence at Geodis Park against Atlanta United FC provides a rock-solid anchor for any accumulator. Their strong home form and Atlanta's poor road record make this a compelling single. St. Louis City, with 86 confidence at CITYPARK, also presents a high-probability home win against Sporting Kansas City. New England Revolution, backed by 86 confidence at Gillette Stadium, face a struggling Toronto FC side and offer another excellent leg. Combine Nashville SC, St. Louis City and New England Revolution into a treble for a confident play.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
