Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution

Philadelphia Union host New England Revolution at Subaru Park in Regular Season Round 31, a fixture with real weight at both ends of the table. The model is firmly on the home side, giving Philadelphia a 66.3 percent win probability at odds of 1.58, with confidence rated 88.

The form line explains much of that. Philadelphia arrive on a five-match winning run, WWWWW, while New England have been mixed at WWLLW. The expected-goals numbers back the gap: Philadelphia are projected at 1.8892 goals against New England's 0.9155, and their recent attacking output of 1.94 xG sits well clear of the visitors' 1.42. The head-to-head record is streaky rather than one-sided — New England won 2-1 in May 2026, but Philadelphia have taken three of the last five meetings, including a 5-1 rout in July 2024.

The tips follow the same logic. Double chance 1X carries 80.3 percent, the safest port of call. Both teams to score No is priced at 2.55 on a 44.5 percent model read, and Under 2.5 goals at 2.84 on 39.6 percent — both are minority calls, so treat them as speculative rather than core. The correct-score model leans 2-0 at 10.84 percent, with 1-0 at 10.42 and 2-1 at 9.92 close behind. Corners offer a cleaner angle: Over 9.5 is tipped at 57.2 percent with an expected 12.1.

The honest caveat is team news. Both squads list extensive absences, and New England's E. Kohler is doubtful, so lineups could shift the picture materially. Verify the starting elevens before committing, and note that the goals markets are the least confident part of this snapshot.