Our model gives France win a 87% confidence rating
Quarter-finals
Tomorrow - Thursday, July 09
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00 | WWWWW |
France
vs
Morocco
|
WWWDD | 87% | 60.3% | Home | 1.61 | β |
Friday, July 10
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:00 | WWWWD |
Spain
vs
Belgium
|
WDDWW | 69% | 26.4% | Draw | 3.98 | β |
Saturday, July 11
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | WWLWW |
Norway
vs
England
|
WWWDW | 70% | 27.5% | Draw | N/A | β |
Sunday, July 12
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | WWWWW |
Argentina
vs
Switzerland
|
WWWDD | 84% | 54.9% | Home | N/A | β |
Top Trends from World Cup Teams
Morocco are unbeaten in their last 10 matches
Spain are unbeaten in their last 10 matches
Belgium are unbeaten in their last 10 matches
Norway are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
Argentina are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
Switzerland are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
Predictlix World Cup Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: July 4, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Argentina versus Egypt carries the clearest signal across this Round of 16 slate. PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine backs the home win at 83% confidence, driven by a wide lambda gap β 1.39 to 0.72 β and Argentina's perfect five-match winning streak. Mexico hosting England also stands out at 80% confidence. Canada's 82% home prediction against Morocco offers another strong indicator. Back Argentina to win at a confident pick, though odds were unavailable at the time of analysis.
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
Paraguay versus France stands out as a strong Over 2.5 candidate, with PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine showing an 81.9% probability and a combined lambda of 4.64. USA against Belgium also screams goals, boasting an 86.4% Over 2.5 rate and a staggering 83.2% BTTS probability. Conversely, Mexico hosting England leans Under, with a 65.1% probability for Under 2.5 and low attacking lambdas of 1.27 and 0.83. The play is to back Over 2.5 in USA vs Belgium at 1.78, given the sky-high 86.4% probability and strong confidence rating.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Canada bring a formidable five-match winning streak into this Round of 16 clash. Mexico are on an impressive unbeaten run of seven games, a powerful indicator of their current form. Argentina have won their last four fixtures, building clear momentum. England's recent form shows three wins from four, though they did suffer a loss. Switzerland have gone six matches without defeat, a strong record. These streaks will be tested in the knockout phase.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Every Round of 16 tie carries knockout stakes, with no dead rubbers in this window. Canada hosts Morocco seeking a quarter-final berth, while Paraguay and France both know defeat ends their campaign. Brazil and Norway face a high-stakes draw prediction, where a single slip could prove costly. Mexico welcomes England with home advantage amplifying their win expectancy. Portugal versus Spain is a tense Iberian clash where neither side can afford to lose. USA and Belgium meet in a finely balanced contest with progression on the line. Argentina and Egypt battle with Argentina favoured, but Egypt has everything to play for. Switzerland and Colombia round out a competitive slate where every result matters.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Canada's home win prediction carries 82 confidence and 5.54 odds, making it a strong accumulator leg. Mexico's 80-confidence home victory against England at 3.16 offers excellent value for a second pick. Argentina's 83-confidence home win completes the treble, though odds are unavailable. The PredictLix model sees these three home sides advancing with conviction. Back the Canada-Mexico-Argentina home win accumulator, where all three exceed the 70-confidence threshold for acca inclusion.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Round of 16
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 20:00 | WLWDD |
Canada
vs
Morocco
|
WWWDD | 82% | 51.1% | Home β | @5.54 | 0 β 3 FT |
| 05/07 00:00 | DWLWL |
Paraguay
vs
France
|
WWWWW | 65% | 18.5% | Draw β | @7.45 | 0 β 1 FT |
| 05/07 23:00 | WWWDW |
Brazil
vs
Norway
|
WWLWW | 70% | 28.8% | Draw β | @3.76 | 1 β 2 FT |
| 06/07 04:00 | WWWWW |
Mexico
vs
England
|
WWWDW | 80% | 46.5% | Home β | @3.20 | 2 β 3 FT |
| 06/07 22:00 | WDWDW |
Portugal
vs
Spain
|
WWWWD | 68% | 24.3% | Draw β | @3.62 | 0 β 1 FT |
| 07/07 03:00 | WLWWL |
USA
vs
Belgium
|
WDDWW | 64% | 17.6% | Draw β | @3.50 | 1 β 4 FT |
| 07/07 19:00 | WWWWW |
Argentina
vs
Egypt
|
DWDLW | 83% | 52.6% | Home β | @1.36 | 3 β 2 FT |
