Our model gives Gnistan win a 90% confidence rating
Regular Season , Round 15
Friday, July 10
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | WLDWW |
VPS
vs
SJK
|
WDDLW | 86% | 59.3% | Home | 2.05 | β |
Saturday, July 11
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | WDDLL |
Lahti
vs
HJK Helsinki
|
WLWDW | 67% | 21.8% | Draw | 3.85 | β |
| 17:00 | LWDLL |
Turku PS
vs
AC Oulu
|
DLWDW | 69% | 26.2% | Draw | N/A | β |
| 17:00 | LDDWW |
Gnistan
vs
Mariehamn
|
LLLLL | 90% | 65.6% | Home | N/A | β |
Top Trends from Veikkausliiga Teams
VPS are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
KuPS are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
Inter Turku are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
Ilves have won 9 of the last 9 meetings against Turku PS
Turku PS are unbeaten in 8 of their 10 most recent matches
In their 10 most recent matches, FF Jaro have achieved just 2 wins
Predictlix Veikkausliiga Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: July 4, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
VPS hosting Mariehamn in Regular Season - 14 commands attention. PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine projects a home win with 90% confidence, the window's highest. A VPS lambda of 2.0113 dwarfs Mariehamn's 0.989, exposing a stark attacking mismatch. AC Oulu versus Gnistan also shows strong home edge at 82% confidence. HJK Helsinki's home clash with VPS carries 83% confidence. The VPS vs Mariehamn home win at 90% confidence offers the clearest betting edge in this round.
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
AC Oulu and Gnistan produce the highest Over 2.5 probability in the window at 71.3%, with BTTS at 69.5% and strong attacking lambdas of 2.16 and 1.57. This clash screams goals. PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine also flags HJK Helsinki versus VPS for over 2.5 action at 68% probability and 66.4% BTTS. On the flip side, Mariehamn vs Lahti leans firmly Under with a 64.8% Under 2.5 probability and low combined lambdas of 0.99 and 1.12. Back Over 2.5 in AC Oulu vs Gnistan at strong confidence.
Streak & Momentum Signals
HJK Helsinki carry a strong form indicator with four wins from their last five, though their most recent result was a draw. Lahti's four-match unbeaten run stands out, including three consecutive victories, marking a significant upward trend. Gnistan have lost four of their last five, a worrying pattern. VPS enter their clash with Mariehamn on a three-match winning streak, showing excellent momentum. Turku PS have drawn three of their last five, suggesting a pattern of tight contests.
Head-to-Head & Historical Edge
VPS holds a commanding historical edge over Mariehamn, winning five of their last six home encounters while keeping three clean sheets in that stretch. SJK's recent meetings with KuPS have been tight, with four draws from the last six clashes and neither side scoring more than once in any of those matches. AC Oulu have dominated Gnistan at home, securing three wins from four and outscoring them 7-2 across those fixtures.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Defensive records across this Veikkausliiga window reveal clear contrasts. VPS and HJK Helsinki both show strong clean sheet rates, suggesting backlines that are tough to breach. AC Oulu and Gnistan are more porous, conceding at higher averages and keeping fewer shutouts. Mariehamn and Lahti have particularly leaky defences, with Mariehamn shipping goals regularly. SJK and Ilves sit in the middle, inconsistent but capable of solid stretches. Turku PS and FF Jaro concede moderately, while KuPS and Inter Turku are harder to break down.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
HJK Helsinki faces VPS in regular season action with both sides still in the hunt. SJK hosts KuPS in a mid-table clash where every point matters for positioning. AC Oulu takes on Gnistan with both teams seeking to climb. FF Jaro meets Inter Turku, while Turku PS battles Ilves in competitive fixtures. Mariehamn welcomes Lahti in a contest where neither side can afford to drop points. Every match carries significance as the season progresses.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
HJK Helsinki host VPS with an 83 confidence rating behind the home win prediction. AC Oulu face Gnistan at home, where PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine gives them an 82 confidence edge. VPS welcome Mariehamn with the highest confidence on the card at 90. Combine HJK Helsinki to win, AC Oulu to win, and VPS to win into a straightforward treble. This acca leverages three strong home favourites where the probability justifies the odds, offering a solid foundation for a multi-leg bet.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Regular Season , Round 14
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 15:00 | WDDLL |
Lahti
vs
Gnistan
|
LDDWW | 66% | 21.6% | Draw β | @3.29 | 1 β 0 FT |
| 04/07 17:00 | LDLLL |
FF Jaro
vs
Ilves
|
LDLWW | 67% | 22.2% | Draw β | @3.97 | 2 β 1 FT |
| 04/07 17:00 | WDDLW |
SJK
vs
Turku PS
|
LWDLL | 68% | 24.9% | Draw β | @4.03 | 3 β 1 FT |
| 04/07 18:00 | WLDWW |
VPS
vs
Mariehamn
|
LLLLL | 90% | 66.6% | Home β | @1.28 | 4 β 0 FT |
