Our model gives GOR Mahia win a 89% confidence rating
Kenya FKF Premier League Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches β’ Next 20 Days β’ 3 Matches β’ Round 1 β’ Updated 2 minutes ago β’ UTC+3
Regular Season, Round 1
Saturday, October 10
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 14:00 | WLDLW |
Mathare United
vs
APS Bomet
|
WWWWW | 76% | 35.7% | Away β | N/A | 0 β 0 FT |
| 10/10 16:15 | DWDDL |
Posta Rangers FC
vs
Shabana
|
WLDLD | 77% | 37.1% | Home β | N/A | 0 β 1 FT |
Sunday, October 11
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 14:00 | LDLWW |
Ulinzi Stars
vs
Tusker
|
WLWLD | 74% | 30.1% | Draw β | N/A | 0 β 2 FT |
| 11/10 15:00 | DWDDW |
3K
vs
Mara Sugar
|
LWLWW | 79% | 44.7% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 2 FT |
| 11/10 15:00 | DWWWW |
Migori Youth
vs
Police
|
DWWDW | 76% | 36.3% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 1 FT |
| 11/10 16:00 | DLWLW |
Nairobi United
vs
KCB
|
DLWDL | 79% | 44.7% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 2 FT |
Tomorrow - Tuesday, October 13
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | WDWLD |
Mombasa Elite
vs
Homeboyz
|
LLLDL | 80% | 45.7% | Home | N/A | β |
| 19:00 | WDWWD |
GOR Mahia
vs
Murang'a SEAL
|
LWLLL | 89% | 70.9% | Home | 1.50 | β |
Wednesday, October 14
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | WWWLL |
AFC Leopards
vs
Bandari
|
LDDWL | 82% | 52.1% | Home | 2.02 | β |
Top Trends from FKF Premier League Teams
Our model gives Police win a 88% confidence rating
Our model gives APS Bomet win a 86% confidence rating
3K are unbeaten in their last 10 matches
In their 10 most recent matches, Murang'a SEAL have achieved just 1 wins
Migori Youth are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
Mombasa Elite are unbeaten in 8 of their 10 most recent matches
Predictlix FKF Premier League Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 9, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
GOR Mahia carry the sharpest edge in this window, with the PredictLix model rating their home win over Murang'a SEAL at 89 confidence and 71.1%, the highest probability on the board. That gap traces to a home attack averaging 2.1262 goals against an away figure of 0.8674, and Murang'a SEAL's single win in ten. AFC Leopards versus Bandari also stands out at 87 confidence and 66.1%. Back GOR Mahia to win at 89 confidence, but keep stakes modest given early-season uncertainty.
Model Track Record in This League
Across 42 settled matches in this league, the PredictLix model's match winner accuracy sits at 31% correct (13/42). That is a small sample, so treat these figures as an early read rather than a settled verdict. Double chance has landed 73.8% correct (31/42), while Over/Under 2.5 reached 59.5% correct (25/42). BTTS came in at 42.9% correct (18/42). Correct score proved hardest at 11.9% correct (5/42).
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL is the clear Over 2.5 lean at 47.9%, driven by a home attack rating of 2.1262 against an away side winless in ten recent outings. AFC Leopards vs Bandari sits firmly Under at 57.5%, with Bandari's 0.4196 away figure the lowest in this window. Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker also favours Under at 58.7%, both attacks subdued at 0.8892 and 0.8928. Back Under 2.5 in AFC Leopards vs Bandari at 57.5% with the strongest defensive edge.
Streak & Momentum Signals
3K arrive at their clash with Mara Sugar unbeaten in their last 10 matches, the longest active run in this window. APS Bomet and Police each carry 9-match unbeaten sequences into their respective ties against Mathare United and Migori Youth. At the other end, Murang'a SEAL have managed just 1 win across their 10 most recent matches, a poor stretch ahead of facing GOR Mahia. Early-season caveats apply, since no team has yet completed a league round.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Defensive numbers across this window sit at zero for every side, since no team has played a competitive round yet. Nairobi United, KCB, Mathare United and APS Bomet therefore carry no clean sheets and no conceded average to separate them. The trend engine offers the sharper read: Murang'a SEAL have managed just 1 win in their 10 most recent matches, while APS Bomet and Police each arrive unbeaten in their last 9.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
GOR Mahia sit fourth against Murang'a SEAL in 14th, with Murang'a SEAL managing just 1 win from their 10 most recent matches. Every club in this window has 0 pts and a goal difference of +0 across 0 rounds played, so the table order is not yet meaningful. Nairobi United, 17th, host sixth-placed KCB, while 18th-placed 3K welcome 16th-placed Mara Sugar, both in Regular Season - 1. No fixture here qualifies as a dead rubber, since all 11 carry live stakes.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL carries the strongest indicator in this window, with the PredictLix model rating a home win at 89% confidence. AFC Leopards also impress at 87% against Bandari. Yet no accumulator can be built here. The snapshot confirms there are not enough priced high-confidence legs, since odds are unavailable across the board. Instead, one single stands out: back GOR Mahia to win, given that 71.1% model probability and their opponent's poor recent form.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types β wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form β Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration β Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) Β· <60% | 38.1% | 0.0% | 6 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· <60% | 51.5% | 66.7% | 6 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· <60% | 53.1% | 66.7% | 6 |
| Correct Score Β· <60% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 6 |
| Double Chance Β· 60-69% | 67.8% | 75.0% | 4 |
| Double Chance Β· 70-79% | 74.0% | 100.0% | 2 |
| Draw Predictions Β· <60% | 28.4% | 50.0% | 2 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Final
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 14:00 | WDWLD |
Mombasa Elite
vs
Kariobangi Sharks
|
----- | β | β | No data | N/A | 2 β 1 FT |