📋 Changelog

🤝 Draw Predictions — Back and Smarter

• ✅ Draw picks are back on all Draw Predictions pages — and they're now selected by a smarter rule. A draw tip appears only when the draw is genuinely likely (high draw probability) and the teams are evenly matched on strength. No more draw picks that were actually less likely than a home win — every draw tip on the page is a match where the deadlock is a real possibility.
• ✅ Each draw tip shows its own draw probability and confidence score, calculated on a scale designed for the draw market — so you can compare candidates at a glance.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions Now Affect Predictions

• ✅ The model now reads official injury and suspension data before every prediction round. A team missing several players gets its attacking expectation reduced — the more absences, the bigger the adjustment (capped so a long injury list never distorts the numbers beyond reason).
• ✅ League Insights cards now include confirmed absences by name when analysing a fixture — you'll see exactly which players are out or doubtful when reading the analysis.

📐 Expected Goals (xG) Inside the Model

• ✅ Where the data is available (top leagues), the model now blends expected goals (xG) from recent matches into its attacking and defensive ratings — not just raw goals scored. xG measures the quality of chances a team creates and concedes, which predicts future results better than goals alone.

🎯 Smarter, More Consistent Predictions

• ✅ Every tip now always points to the most likely outcome. We rebuilt how final picks are chosen: previously a tip could be based on the single most likely scoreline, which in some matches led to a "Draw" tip even when a home win was actually more probable. Now every pick — Match Result, BTTS, Over/Under — is always the outcome with the highest total probability behind it.
• ✅ Early-season predictions just got much sharper. While the new season table is still taking shape, the model now reads each team's strength from last season's final standings instead of treating all clubs as equals. Promoted teams get realistic starter ratings — no more overestimated newcomers in August and September.
• ✅ Probabilities are now calibrated against bookmaker odds. Our model's numbers are blended with live market prices (75% model, 25% market) — this keeps extreme outliers grounded while preserving the model's own edge. When our probability still beats the bookmaker's implied one after blending, that's a genuine value signal.
• ✅ Head-to-head history now respects time. Recent meetings between two teams weigh far more than clashes from 5-10 years ago with completely different squads. Old H2H no longer inflates goal expectations.

📈 League Insights — New Cards & Fact-Checking

• ✅ New card: Model Track Record. See how our model has actually performed in each specific league — real hit rates on settled matches for Match Winner, BTTS, Over/Under and more. No marketing claims, just verified numbers from our own prediction archive.
• ✅ New card: Model vs Market — Value Edges. We compare our probabilities with bookmaker implied odds and show you exactly where the model rates an outcome higher than the market does — the fixtures where long-term value hides.
• ✅ Every number is now fact-checked before publishing. An automated verification layer compares every figure in the insights against the underlying match data. If a number doesn't match the data exactly, the card is regenerated or removed — you will never see an invented statistic.
• ✅ Insights are now refreshed twice a week (Tuesday and Friday) so the analysis always covers the fixtures that are actually coming up — never matches already played.

📊 Accuracy Block — Full Transparency Upgrades

• ✅ Recent Form — Last 30 Days. The accuracy block on league pages now shows how the model is performing right now, alongside the season-long record. A hot streak or a cold patch is visible at a glance.
• ✅ Probability Calibration table. When our model says "70% chance", does it really land about 7 times out of 10? The new table answers exactly that — predicted probability versus actual hit rate, bucket by bucket. This is the most honest accuracy report you'll find on any prediction site.
• ✅ Clearer season labels. When a league page still shows last season's completed statistics, the block now explicitly says "Final Report" instead of implying live tracking — you always know exactly which season the numbers belong to.

🆕 New Leagues

• ✅ Major League Soccer 🇺🇸 USA — the premier professional football league in the United States, featuring 30 clubs across the Eastern and Western Conferences.
• ✅ Allsvenskan 🇸🇪 Sweden — Sweden's top-flight football division, one of the oldest professional leagues in Europe, running annually from April to November.
• ✅ Eliteserien 🇳🇴 Norway — Norway's highest professional football league, consisting of 16 clubs competing in a spring-to-autumn season.
• ✅ Veikkausliiga 🇫🇮 Finland — Finland's premier football league, a 12-club competition played throughout the Finnish summer season from April to October.

🏖️ Off-Season Hub

• ✅ Final Standings table is now displayed on league pages once the season ends — showing all teams ranked by points, with their goal difference, form across the last 5 matches, and clearly marked promotion, relegation and European qualification zones.
• ✅ AI Prediction Accuracy block tracks prediction performance live throughout the active season — recording correct and incorrect outcomes per tip type. During the off-season it switches to a full-season review, showing overall accuracy rates across Match Result, BTTS, Over/Under and other prediction categories for the completed campaign.
• ✅ Best of Season Awards — 9 statistical nominations generated from the final standings and season data: Champion (league winner), King of Goals (highest-scoring team), Clean Sheet Masters (most clean sheets), Iron Curtain Defence (fewest goals conceded), Draw Specialists (most draws), Home Fortress (best home record), Away Day Kings (best away record), Unstoppable Run (longest unbeaten streak), and AI Most Predicted (team most frequently selected as the AI's top pick).
• ✅ Off-Season FAQ — 4 questions auto-populated with real season data: which teams were promoted and relegated (pulled directly from final standings), what the overall AI prediction accuracy was for the completed season, which leagues are currently active with live predictions, and when the next season is expected to begin.

🌍 New Tournament

• ✅ FIFA World Cup 2026 — the biggest football tournament on the planet is now covered on PredictLix. Match predictions, confidence scores and odds for every fixture of the 2026 World Cup, hosted across the USA, Canada and Mexico.

🧠 League Insights Block

• ✅ A new League Insights block now appears on every league Match Result (1×2) page — for example on Premier League predictions. The block delivers 7 data-driven analytical notes specific to the upcoming fixtures in the prediction window.
• ✅ Each insight covers a distinct betting angle: Match Outcome Confidence Map, Goals Landscape, Streak & Momentum Signals, Head-to-Head & Historical Edge, Defensive Lines, Standings Context & Match Motivation, and Accumulator Builder.
• ✅ Insights are generated from real match data — upcoming fixtures, pre-computed trends, standings, H2H history and team stats — not generic text. Every league page gets unique content built around the teams actually playing in the current prediction window.
• ✅ Content is refreshed weekly via the data pipeline and timestamped so both users and search engines always see when the analysis was last updated.

🔥 Top Trends Block

• ✅ Brand new Top Trends block now appears on every league page - surfacing the most interesting statistical patterns across all teams in the league at a glance.
• ✅ Trends are built from each team's last 10 matches across all tournaments (league, cups, international) - giving a fuller picture of current form than league-only stats.
• ✅ Each prediction type gets its own unique set of trends - no duplicates between sections. BTTS shows BTTS streaks, Over/Under shows goal averages, Corners shows corner stats, and so on.

📈 Trend Types Covered

• ✅ Form streaks - unbeaten runs, winless runs, win/lose streaks, home unbeaten, away winless.
• ✅ Goals trends - scoring streaks, failed-to-score runs, high-scoring and leaky-defence patterns, average goals per match.
• ✅ BTTS trends - BTTS Yes/No streaks, clean sheets runs and matches where teams failed to score.
• ✅ Over/Under trends - Over 2.5 and Under 2.5 streaks with goal averages from recent matches.
• ✅ Corners trends - corners won, corners conceded and total corners averages per team, plus Over/Under 9.5 corner streaks.
• ✅ H2H trends - head-to-head dominance and historical goals patterns between meeting teams.
• ✅ Draw trends - teams with a high share of draws in their recent matches.

🎯 Smart Ranking

• ✅ Trends are ranked by strength and relevance to the current prediction type - the most actionable patterns appear first.
• ✅ Pure statistics - no confidence percentages on specialised pages, only real numbers from recent matches.

🆕 New Leagues

• ✅ India Super League - India's top professional football league is now fully covered with predictions and results.
• ✅ Ghana Premier League - Ghana's national top division added, expanding our African football coverage.
• ✅ Zambia Super League - Zambia's top-flight league now included with full predictions and match history.
• ✅ International Friendlies — national team friendly matches now included with full predictions ahead of tournaments and international breaks.

📊 Previous Round Results

• ✅ The Previous Round block on league pages now looks back up to 10 days - so you'll always see the last completed round even in leagues that play less frequently.
• ✅ Previous round results are now persistent - if no new round has started yet, the last completed round stays visible until the next one begins. No more empty sections between matchdays.

⚡ Performance

• ✅ Pages now load noticeably faster - prediction data files have been optimised and reduced in size without losing any information.

🆕 New Leagues

• ✅ Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara - top-flight Tanzanian football league added.
• ✅ Uganda Premier League - Uganda's national top division now covered.
• ✅ Brazil Série A - South America's biggest league added to predictions.

📱 Mobile

• ✅ Improved layout and usability across prediction tables and navigation on mobile devices.

⚡ Latest Results

• ✅ The Latest Football Results section now displays only matches from leagues available on PredictLix.

🔧 Fixes

• 🔧 Minor bug fixes and stability improvements across the platform.

🆕 Prediction Types

• ✅ Match Result (1x2) - AI-powered Home / Draw / Away predictions with confidence scores and live odds.
• ✅ BTTS - Both Teams to Score predictions (Yes/No) with probability ratings.
• ✅ Over/Under 2.5 Goals - predicted total goals with Poisson-based probability.
• ✅ Correct Score - exact scoreline predictions derived from the score matrix.
• ✅ Double Chance - 1X, X2, 12 predictions with confidence ratings.
• ✅ Corner Predictions - Over/Under 9.5 corners with expected corners shown per match.
• ✅ Draw Predictions - filtered list of all matches where a draw is the predicted outcome.
• ✅ Sure Win Predictions - high-confidence Top Picks and Sure Wins for today only.

📅 Coverage

• ✅ Predictions available for Today, Tomorrow, all 7 days of the week and Weekend view
• ✅ Dedicated league pages with predictions for the next 10 days per league

📊 Algorithm

• ✅ Poisson-based Score Matrix as the master prediction source for all outcomes
• ✅ λ (expected goals) calculated from team form, table position, H2H stats, defensive weakness and win streaks
• ✅ Independent Confidence and Probability scores shown for every prediction

💰 Odds

• ✅ Live bookmaker odds for all prediction types including corners - collected up to 3 days ahead from the primary bookmaker, with automatic fallback to a secondary source if odds are unavailable.