Our model gives Bali United win a 92% confidence rating
Indonesia Liga 1 Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches β’ Next 20 Days β’ 9 Matches β’ Round 4 β’ Updated 4 hours ago β’ UTC+3
Regular Season, Round 4
Friday, October 09
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | DWLLL |
Persik Kediri
vs
Persepam Madura Utd
|
WWWWL | 77% | 38.7% | Away | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | LLLWW |
Isenmulang Kalteng
vs
Persebaya Surabaya
|
DWDWW | 77% | 37% | Away | N/A | β |
Saturday, October 10
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | DDWLL |
Arema FC
vs
Bhayangkara FC
|
WDDWL | 80% | 45.6% | Home | N/A | β |
| 11:30 | LLDLW |
PSIM Yogyakarta
vs
Persija
|
WWWWL | 83% | 54.4% | Away | N/A | β |
| 11:30 | DWDLD |
Persita
vs
Garudayaksa
|
DLDWW | 82% | 50.8% | Home | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | LWWLW |
Bali United
vs
Persijap
|
LLLDD | 92% | 79.5% | Home | N/A | β |
Sunday, October 11
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | LLDLD |
Java United
vs
Pusamania Borneo
|
WLWLW | 75% | 33.9% | Away | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | WWLWW |
Persib Bandung
vs
Dewa United
|
WWDWL | 82% | 52% | Home | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | LLLWD |
PSS Sleman
vs
PSM Makassar
|
DDLLL | 76% | 36.5% | Home | N/A | β |
Top Trends from Liga 1 Teams
Our model gives Dewa United win a 92% confidence rating
Our model gives Persebaya Surabaya win a 90% confidence rating
Our model gives Persib Bandung win a 89% confidence rating
Our model gives Bhayangkara FC win a 87% confidence rating
Garudayaksa are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
In their 10 most recent matches, PSIM Yogyakarta have achieved just 2 wins
Predictlix Liga 1 Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 2, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Dewa United versus Persijap carries the sharpest edge in this window, with the PredictLix model rating the home win at 85 percent, the highest probability anywhere in these twenty fixtures. The lambdas tell the story plainly: 2.0977 against 0.3869, a mismatch between the league leaders and a Persijap side still searching for a first point. Persebaya Surabaya against PSS Sleman also stands out at 90 confidence and 71.9 percent, while Bali United versus Persijap sits at 79.5 percent. Back Dewa United at home with high confidence, but keep stakes modest given the model's 47.9 percent record on 75-plus picks.
Model Track Record in This League
The PredictLix model's settled record in this league comes from just 28 matches, a sample small enough that every figure below deserves caution. Match winner accuracy sits at 46.4% correct (13/28), identical to the BTTS rate of 46.4% (13/28). Over/Under 2.5 calls landed at 39.3% (11/28), while correct score reached only 14.3% (4/28). Double chance stands far stronger at 71.4% (20/28). Draw picks managed 42.9% (3/7).
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
Persijap versus Isenmulang Kalteng stands out as the strongest Under 2.5 lean in this window, with the PredictLix model rating it at 68.2% and lambdas of 0.69 and 0.2186 reflecting two blunt attacks. By contrast, Persib Bandung versus Dewa United tilts Over 2.5 at 54.7%, driven by a home lambda of 2.0222 against 1.3754. Persebaya Surabaya versus PSS Sleman leans Under 2.5 at 50.1%, with PSS Sleman's away lambda just 0.6713. Back Under 2.5 in Persijap versus Isenmulang Kalteng at 68.2% confidence.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Persepam Madura Utd arrive on a three-match winning run, while Persija have matched that sequence with three straight victories of their own. At the other end, PSS Sleman, Persijap and Isenmulang Kalteng have each lost their last three, and Isenmulang Kalteng carry a goal difference of -9. Persita's trend engine flags an unbeaten run spanning 9 of their 10 most recent matches, yet PSIM Yogyakarta have managed just 2 wins across the same span. Early season caveat: only 4 rounds played, so these streaks remain short samples.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Isenmulang Kalteng own the leakiest defensive record in this window, conceding 3.3 goals per game across three outings without a single clean sheet. At the other end, Persija and PSIM Yogyakarta have shipped just 0.3 and 0.7 respectively, while Persebaya Surabaya and Persib Bandung also sit on 0.7. Persijap and Java United remain without a shutout, conceding 1.7 apiece. Only Pusamania Borneo, Persija, PSIM Yogyakarta and Persebaya Surabaya have kept two clean sheets each.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Dewa United sit top on 10 points, yet the snapshot stresses the table is not yet meaningful across only 4 rounds played. Java United, on -1 points and 17th, host Pusamania Borneo knowing every early result shapes survival hopes. Persijap and Isenmulang Kalteng, both winless, meet in a Regular Season - 5 clash where the bottom side badly needs a first point. PSS Sleman, still on 0 points with form LLL, face a Persebaya Surabaya side chasing momentum.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Persebaya Surabaya carry the sharpest edge in this window, with the PredictLix model rating their home clash against PSS Sleman at 90 confidence and a 71.9% predicted outcome share. Dewa United and Bali United both sit on 92 confidence, the joint-highest marks available. No accumulator is offered here, because the snapshot confirms there are not enough priced high-confidence legs with real odds to build one honestly. Instead, treat Persebaya Surabaya as a single pick and confirm the price before staking.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types β wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form β Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration β Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) Β· <60% | 44.7% | 36.4% | 22 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 60-69% | 64.8% | 80.0% | 5 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 70-79% | 70.2% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· <60% | 51.9% | 50.0% | 26 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· 60-69% | 63.6% | 0.0% | 2 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· <60% | 51.9% | 47.8% | 23 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· 60-69% | 62.8% | 0.0% | 5 |
| Correct Score Β· <60% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 28 |
| Double Chance Β· 70-79% | 74.3% | 66.7% | 21 |
| Double Chance Β· 80+% | 84.8% | 100.0% | 6 |
| Double Chance Β· 60-69% | 68.3% | 0.0% | 1 |
| Draw Predictions Β· <60% | 28.0% | 42.9% | 7 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Regular Season, Round 3
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 11:30 | DDWLL |
Arema FC
vs
Persik Kediri
|
DWLLL | 83% | 56.2% | Home β | @1.75 | 1 β 1 FT |
| 18/09 15:00 | WWWWL |
Persepam Madura Utd
vs
PSIM Yogyakarta
|
LLDLW | 80% | 49.3% | Home β | @2.09 | 2 β 1 FT |
| 19/09 11:30 | DWDWW |
Persebaya Surabaya
vs
Garudayaksa
|
DLDWW | 88% | 66.5% | Home β | @1.34 | 1 β 1 FT |
| 19/09 11:30 | DDLLL |
PSM Makassar
vs
Persita
|
DWDLD | 77% | 41.9% | Home β | @2.02 | 2 β 2 FT |
| 19/09 15:00 | WDDWL |
Bhayangkara FC
vs
Isenmulang Kalteng
|
LLLWW | 88% | 66.3% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 0 FT |
| 19/09 15:00 | WWWWL |
Persija
vs
Java United
|
LLDLD | 90% | 70.2% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 0 FT |
| 20/09 11:30 | WLWLW |
Pusamania Borneo
vs
Bali United
|
LWWLW | 79% | 46% | Home β | @2.08 | 1 β 0 FT |
| 20/09 11:30 | WWDWL |
Dewa United
vs
PSS Sleman
|
LLLWD | 89% | 67.3% | Home β | @1.42 | 2 β 1 FT |
| 20/09 15:00 | LLLDD |
Persijap
vs
Persib Bandung
|
WWLWW | 82% | 54.4% | Away β | @1.43 | 1 β 2 FT |