Our model gives Dewa United win a 92% confidence rating
Indonesia Liga 1 Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches β’ Next 20 Days β’ 8 Matches β’ Round 5 β’ Updated 1 hour ago β’ UTC+3
Regular Season, Round 5
Tomorrow - Friday, October 16
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | LLLDL |
PSIM Yogyakarta
vs
PSM Makassar
|
LDDLL | 76% | 35.4% | Home | 2.26 | β |
| 15:00 | LWWWW |
Persepam Madura Utd
vs
Bhayangkara FC
|
DWDDW | 75% | 32.5% | Home | 2.85 | β |
| 15:00 | LLLLD |
Persijap
vs
Isenmulang Kalteng
|
LLLLW | 82% | 51.9% | Draw | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | WLLDL |
Java United
vs
Bali United
|
WLWWL | 77% | 37.3% | Home | N/A | β |
Saturday, October 17
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | LDLDW |
Garudayaksa
vs
Arema FC
|
DDDWL | 74% | 30.8% | Away | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | WDWDL |
Persita
vs
Persija
|
WWWWW | 78% | 41.4% | Away | N/A | β |
Sunday, October 18
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | WDWDW |
Persebaya Surabaya
vs
PSS Sleman
|
WLLLW | 85% | 60.4% | Home | 1.81 | β |
| 15:00 | WDWWW |
Persib Bandung
vs
Persik Kediri
|
WDWLL | 85% | 59.4% | Home | 1.77 | β |
Top Trends from Liga 1 Teams
Our model gives Bali United win a 92% confidence rating
Our model gives Persija win a 89% confidence rating
Our model gives Bhayangkara FC win a 88% confidence rating
Our model gives Persebaya Surabaya win a 85% confidence rating
Persib Bandung are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
In their 10 most recent matches, PSIM Yogyakarta have achieved just 2 wins
Predictlix Liga 1 Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 13, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Dewa United's trip to Persijap carries the window's sharpest edge, with the PredictLix model rating the visitors at 92 confidence and an 88.6% probability, the highest in this set. That gap stems from a home attack worth 2.2106 goals against an away figure of just 0.3172. Elsewhere, Bali United over Garudayaksa sits at 92 confidence, while Persija against Arema FC lands at 89. Back Dewa United, Bali United and Persija in a home treble, though the standout single remains Dewa United at 88.6%.
Model Track Record in This League
PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine has settled 37 matches in this league, a sample small enough that every figure deserves caution. Match winner accuracy sits at 54.1% correct (20/37), while both teams to score landed at 51.4% correct (19/37). Over/Under 2.5 proved the weakest market at 43.2% correct (16/37), and correct score reached just 16.2% correct (6/37). Double chance remains the standout at 75.7% correct (28/37). Draw picks returned 37.5% correct (3/8), and high-confidence selections hit 52.4% correct (n=126).
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
Isenmulang Kalteng versus PSIM Yogyakarta stands out as the clearest Under 2.5 lean at 61%, with lambdas of 0.6339 and 0.5997 reflecting two blunt attacks. Persijap versus Isenmulang Kalteng goes further still, Under 2.5 at 69.4% given lambdas of 0.6237 and 0.1539. By contrast, Persepam Madura Utd versus Persib Bandung leans Over 2.5 at 53.6%, supported by lambdas of 1.7849 and 1.4494. Back Under 2.5 in the Isenmulang tie at 1.9 for solid value.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Persib Bandung arrive unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches, the longest such run among teams in this window. At the other end, PSIM Yogyakarta have managed just 2 wins across their 10 most recent outings. Persijap and Isenmulang Kalteng both sit on four-match losing sequences, while Dewa United and Bali United each carry 92% confidence ratings. Note that flagged partial data for Garudayaksa, Isenmulang Kalteng and Bali United fixtures means some streaks rest on short samples.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Bali United and Persebaya Surabaya share the tightest defensive records in this window, each conceding just 0.5 goals per game with two clean sheets apiece. At the opposite end, Isenmulang Kalteng, PSM Makassar and Persijap all ship 2.8 goals per outing without a single shutout. Dewa United's backline stands out too, conceding only 0.3 per match across four games, while collecting three clean sheets along the way.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Persija sit top on 12 points with a Champions League spot and a WWWW run, while Dewa United and Bali United chase on 11 and 9 points respectively. At the bottom, Isenmulang Kalteng, Persijap and PSIM Yogyakarta all occupy the RELEGATION ZONE and must win. Persija versus Arema FC in Regular Season - 6 pits the leaders against mid-table opposition. Persebaya Surabaya, sixth on 8 points, travel to relegation-threatened PSM Makassar. Every contest carries genuine stakes.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Persita versus Persija anchors the PredictLix treble, with the away side priced at 1.57 and confidence sitting at 85. PSIM Yogyakarta then host PSM Makassar at 2.25, a relegation-zone battle the engine rates at 76 confidence. Persepam Madura Utd complete the list, backed at home against Bhayangkara FC at 2.79 with 75 confidence. Combined odds across all three legs come to exactly 9.86. Stake this accumulator only if you accept the variance.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types β wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form β Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration β Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) Β· <60% | 44.0% | 46.7% | 30 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 60-69% | 64.8% | 80.0% | 5 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 70-79% | 74.3% | 100.0% | 2 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· <60% | 52.0% | 54.3% | 35 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· 60-69% | 63.6% | 0.0% | 2 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· <60% | 51.5% | 50.0% | 32 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· 60-69% | 62.8% | 0.0% | 5 |
| Correct Score Β· <60% | 10.6% | 16.2% | 37 |
| Double Chance Β· 70-79% | 74.2% | 70.4% | 27 |
| Double Chance Β· 80+% | 85.9% | 100.0% | 7 |
| Double Chance Β· 60-69% | 68.3% | 66.7% | 3 |
| Draw Predictions Β· <60% | 27.9% | 37.5% | 8 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Regular Season, Round 4
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 11:30 | WDWLL |
Persik Kediri
vs
Persepam Madura Utd
|
LWWWW | 77% | 38.7% | Away β | N/A | 2 β 0 FT |
| 09/10 15:00 | LLLLW |
Isenmulang Kalteng
vs
Persebaya Surabaya
|
WDWDW | 77% | 37% | Away β | N/A | 0 β 1 FT |
| 10/10 11:30 | DDDWL |
Arema FC
vs
Bhayangkara FC
|
DWDDW | 80% | 45.3% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 2 FT |
| 10/10 11:30 | WDWDL |
Persita
vs
Garudayaksa
|
LDLDW | 81% | 49.4% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 1 FT |
| 10/10 11:30 | LLLDL |
PSIM Yogyakarta
vs
Persija
|
WWWWW | 83% | 54.4% | Away β | N/A | 0 β 4 FT |
| 10/10 15:00 | WLWWL |
Bali United
vs
Persijap
|
LLLLD | 92% | 78.4% | Home β | N/A | 6 β 1 FT |
| 11/10 11:30 | WLLDL |
Java United
vs
Pusamania Borneo
|
WLWLW | 76% | 35.5% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 1 FT |
| 11/10 11:30 | WLLLW |
PSS Sleman
vs
PSM Makassar
|
LDDLL | 76% | 36.5% | Home β | N/A | 3 β 0 FT |
| 11/10 15:00 | WDWWW |
Persib Bandung
vs
Dewa United
|
WWDWL | 81% | 49.5% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 2 FT |