Our model gives Pogon Szczecin win a 90% confidence rating
Poland Ekstraklasa Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches • Next 20 Days • 1 Matches • Round 3 • Updated 16 minutes ago • UTC+3
Regular Season, Round 3
Today - Monday, October 12
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:30 | WDWLL |
GKS Katowice
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
|
WWDLD | 82% | 50.6% | Home | 2.13 | — |
Top Trends from Ekstraklasa Teams
Our model gives Lech Poznan win a 89% confidence rating
Our model gives Wisla Krakow win a 89% confidence rating
Our model gives Piast Gliwice win a 87% confidence rating
Our model gives Gornik Zabrze win a 86% confidence rating
Our model gives Wisla Plock win a 86% confidence rating
In their 10 most recent matches, Widzew Łódź have achieved just 1 wins
Predictlix Ekstraklasa Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 9, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Wisla Plock's clash with Radomiak Radom carries the window's strongest signal at 65.4% for a home win, backed by an 87 confidence rating and a huge lambda split of 1.7114 against 0.6877. Lech Poznan versus Korona Kielce sits close behind on 64.9%, while Gornik Zabrze over Piast Gliwice reaches 62.8%. The PredictLix model's value edge favours GKS Katowice at 2.19, a +6.2pp gap. Back Wisla Plock to win, high confidence.
Goals Landscape — Over/Under Breakdown
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce leans Over 2.5 at 54.8%, driven by home lambda 2.2141 against away 1.1403, and BTTS Yes sits at 51.9%. Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow pushes Over harder at 57.6%, with the visitors' 1.9713 lambda carrying real weight. Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin tilts Under 2.5 at 54.2%, both lambdas sitting near 0.95, and Under is priced at 1.95. Best angle: Over 2.5 in Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow, with BTTS Yes at 59.6% offering the sharper edge.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Gornik Zabrze arrive on a DWWWW surge and sit top on 22 points, the division's standout run. Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce share an identical pattern, each unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches. At the other end, Wieczysta Kraków have managed just 1 win across their 10 latest outings, while Widzew Łódź match that grim tally. Note that Wieczysta's figures rest on partial data, so these streaks come from shorter samples.
Defensive Lines — Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Lech Poznan and Gornik Zabrze share the tightest defensive records in this window, each conceding just 0.9 goals per game, with Gornik keeping 3 clean sheets from 9 outings. At the opposite end, Raków Częstochowa leak 2.3 goals per game without a single clean sheet, while Radomiak Radom ship 2.2. Wieczysta Kraków and Widzew Łódź also struggle badly, both recording 0 clean sheets across 8 matches.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Gornik Zabrze sit top on 22 points and host Piast Gliwice in Regular Season - 11, chasing the Champions League spot. Down at the bottom, Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa meet in Regular Season - 11, both in the RELEGATION ZONE — must win. Motor Lublin, also RELEGATION ZONE — must win, face Slask Wroclaw, who are in a relegation battle needing points. Wisla Plock versus Radomiak Radom pits mid-table against a relegation battle.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Lech Poznan's trip to Slask Wroclaw opens the PredictLix acca at 1.62, with the away side favoured on a confidence of 85. Legia Warszawa then host Wisla Krakow at 2.11, an 81-confidence home call. Rounding it off, GKS Katowice welcome Wieczysta Kraków at 2.19, also rated 81. Combined odds across all three legs sit at 7.49. Back this treble at 7.49 with the stated confidence.
Model vs Market — Value Edges
GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków stands out, where the PredictLix model rates the home win at 49.8% against an implied 43.6%, a +6.2pp edge at 2.19. Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow also qualifies, with 49.3% model against 46.1% implied, a +3.2pp edge at 2.11. A positive edge signals long-term value, not a guaranteed win in this specific match. Back GKS Katowice at 2.19 with confidence 81.
AI Prediction Accuracy — Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types — wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form — Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration — Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) · <60% | 41.3% | 75.0% | 8 |
| Both Teams to Score · <60% | 52.1% | 50.0% | 8 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · <60% | 51.2% | 62.5% | 8 |
| Correct Score · <60% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 8 |
| Double Chance · 60-69% | 65.7% | 100.0% | 3 |
| Double Chance · 70-79% | 72.5% | 100.0% | 5 |
| Corners Over/Under · <60% | 53.3% | 75.0% | 8 |
| Draw Predictions · <60% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 3 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Regular Season, Round 10
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 19:00 | WWDLD |
Wieczysta Kraków
vs
Wisla Plock
|
WWDWL | 75% | 32% | Away ❌ | N/A | 3 – 0 FT |
| 09/10 21:30 | LLWLL |
Raków Częstochowa
vs
GKS Katowice
|
WDWLL | 78% | 41.5% | Home ❌ | @2.09 | 1 – 4 FT |
| 10/10 15:45 | LLLLW |
Cracovia Krakow
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
|
LWWDL | 79% | 43.7% | Home ✅ | @1.96 | 3 – 1 FT |
| 11/10 15:45 | LWWWW |
Piast Gliwice
vs
Widzew Łódź
|
DDDLL | 76% | 34.7% | Home ✅ | @2.81 | 2 – 1 FT |
| 11/10 18:30 | DWWDL |
Pogon Szczecin
vs
Korona Kielce
|
WLWDW | 82% | 51.1% | Home ✅ | N/A | 2 – 0 FT |
| 11/10 21:15 | WDWLD |
Legia Warszawa
vs
Wisla Krakow
|
WWDLW | 81% | 48.7% | Home ✅ | @2.10 | 2 – 0 FT |