Benfica vs Lech Poznan
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 • 23:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 4 • ☀️ 24°C, 11 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: Yes at 2.10 (74.8%, Model EV +57.1%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.25 → 1.22 ▼2% | 1xBet1.22 | 79.9% | -2.5% |
| Double Chance | 1X | William Hill1.04 | 91.7% | -4.6% |
| BTTS | Yes | Bet3651.95 | 76.3% · No 23.7% | +48.8% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 1xBet1.37 | 75.3% · Under 24.7% | +3.2% |
| Correct Score | 3-1 | Betano10.75 | 7.6% | -18.3% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 1xBet1.86 | 64.5% · Under 35.5% | +20% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Benfica · Home
Benfica have scored in all five recent matches, including a 4-1 win over Celtic and a 4-1 away win at Omonia Nicosia, with a recent xG for of 2.23 across those matches. Their only defeat in that run was a 1-3 loss at FC Porto.
Lech Poznan · Away
Lech Poznan have scored 12 goals in their last five, including a 6-1 win over Korona Kielce, but they failed to score in a 0-1 loss at Siarka Tarnobrzeg and have no clean sheets in that run. Their recent xG for is 1.95.
H2H goals point to home win
The latest head-to-head is the clearest angle: Benfica beat Lech Poznan 4-0 on 3 Dec 2020, and the earlier meeting finished 2-4 with Benfica scoring four away. Both meetings produced four Benfica goals, and the model expected goals of 3.2 for Benfica fit that pattern. The evidence supports Benfica win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 22:46 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Benfica 3.20 – 1.57 Lech Poznan · expected total 4.77
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Benfica
Lech Poznan
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Benfica
Lech Poznan
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: UEFA Europa League
Benfica
Lech Poznan
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Benfica at home · Lech Poznan away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Benfica (home)
Lech Poznan (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Benfica 2 wins · 0 draws · Lech Poznan 0 wins · avg 5 goals · BTTS in 1 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Dec 2020 | Benfica | 4–0 | Lech Poznan | UEFA Europa League |
| 22 Oct 2020 | Lech Poznan | 2–4 | Benfica | UEFA Europa League |
📈 Recent Form
Benfica
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Santa Clara | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 22/10 | Omonia Nicosia | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 15/10 | Celtic | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 11/10 | Vitória SC | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 20/09 | FC Porto | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 16/09 | AC Milan | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 13/09 | GIL Vicente | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 09/09 | Moreirense | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Maritimo | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 31/08 | Estoril | Home | 2–1 | W |
Lech Poznan
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Wisla Krakow | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 28/10 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 25/10 | Legia Warszawa | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 22/10 | Sunderland | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 18/10 | Korona Kielce | Home | 6–1 | W |
| 15/10 | Bayer Leverkusen | Home | 0–4 | L |
| 10/10 | Slask Wroclaw | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 03/10 | Energie Cottbus | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 20/09 | Radomiak Radom | Home | 5–1 | W |
| 17/09 | Crystal Palace | Away | 0–4 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: UEFA Europa League
Benfica #1 · 9 pts · Lech Poznan #32 · 1 pts
Benfica
Lech Poznan
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Benfica
Lech Poznan
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Benfica
- ❌ A. Bah: Injury
- ❌ D. Banjaqui: Muscle Injury
- ❌ E. Barrenechea: Injury
- ❌ J. Kaminski: Muscle Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): L. Barreiro, J. Duran, D. Ferreira; not counted as confirmed absences.
Lech Poznan
- ❌ A. Douglas: Ankle Injury
- ❌ A. Gholizadeh: Knee Injury
- ❌ A. Kozubal: Thigh Injury
- ❌ R. Murawski: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ A. Sayyadmanesh: Groin Injury
- ❌ W. Monka: Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): R. Gumny, J. Moutinho; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: UEFA Europa League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws