Benfica vs Celtic

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 2 • ☀️ 23.8°C, 11 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Over/Under 2.5 — Under 2.5

Model 48.2% · Market best price ≈ 35.7% · Edge +13.8 pp

Best odds 2.80 Pinnacle 2.80Betano 2.77Bet365 2.75

Bet this pick →

¼ Kelly sizing: 4.9% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	92%	83.6%	1.29	Betano	79.7%	+3.9 pp
Double Chance	1X	84%	88.6%	1.08	Betano	93.1%	-4.5 pp
BTTS	No	83%	53.6%	1.91	William Hill	50%	+3.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	81%	48.2%	2.80	Pinnacle	34.4%	+13.8 pp
Correct Score	1-0	79%	16.4%	9.50	Bet365	5.5%	+10.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.9 exp.)	Over 9.5	66%	56.7%	1.77	1xBet	57.8%	-1.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Benfica 1.64 – 0.45 Celtic · expected total 2.10

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Benfica host Celtic in Europa League League Stage matchday two, and the stakes are already lopsided. Benfica sit 7th on 3 points from 1 game, while Celtic are 28th with 0 points from 1. The Portuguese side arrive on a run of LWWWW; Celtic's last five read LLLWW, and their injury list is punishing: L. Emenalo, A. Johnston, Jota, S. Mheuka, C. Osmand, A. Oxlade-Chamberlain and J. van den Berg are all out. Benfica lose only A. Bah.

The model sees a clear home edge. Expected goals point to 1.6435 for Benfica against just 0.4535 for Celtic, though recent xG form is tighter — 1.31 home versus 1.59 away — which is the one number that should stop you getting carried away. The match result tip is Home at 83.6% probability, priced at 1.29, with confidence at 92. Double chance 1X lands at 88.6%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 53.6%, offered at 1.91 — that's where the value looks most interesting given Celtic's blunt expected output. Under 2.5 goals is tipped at 48.2% and priced at 2.8, a thinner edge. The top correct scores are 1-0 at 19.3, 2-0 at 16.61 and 3-0 at 9.1, with the headline correct score 1-0 at 16.4%. Corners lean Over 9.5, expected 11.9 at 56.7%.

The honest caveat: Celtic's recent xG of 1.59 is higher than Benfica's 1.31, so the away side is creating chances even while losing. If that translates, the BTTS No tip at 53.6% is the most fragile call here.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Benfica

Form (last 5)

LFC Porto (A) 1–3 · 20/09/2026 WAC Milan (A) 2–0 · 16/09/2026WGIL Vicente (H) 3–1 · 13/09/2026WMoreirense (A) 4–0 · 09/09/2026WMaritimo (A) 3–0 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)3.00

Goals conceded (season avg)0.90

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.11

xG against (recent avg)0.84

Elo strength rating1401

Players out1

Celtic

Form (last 5)

LRangers (H) 0–1 · 20/09/2026LFerencvarosi TC (H) 1–3 · 17/09/2026LRangers (A) 0–3 · 13/09/2026WST Johnstone (A) 1–0 · 09/09/2026WST Mirren (A) 2–1 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)3.00

Win streak (best this season)0

xG for (recent avg)0.91

xG against (recent avg)0.70

Elo strength rating1425

Players out7

BenficaCeltic

LFC Porto (A) 1–3 · 20/09/2026 WAC Milan (A) 2–0 · 16/09/2026WGIL Vicente (H) 3–1 · 13/09/2026WMoreirense (A) 4–0 · 09/09/2026WMaritimo (A) 3–0 · 05/09/2026

LRangers (H) 0–1 · 20/09/2026LFerencvarosi TC (H) 1–3 · 17/09/2026LRangers (A) 0–3 · 13/09/2026WST Johnstone (A) 1–0 · 09/09/2026WST Mirren (A) 2–1 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

3.00

1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)

0.90

3.00

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.11

0.91

xG against (recent avg)

0.84

0.70

Elo strength rating

1401

1425

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Benfica

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

3/6

Celtic

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — UEFA Europa League

Benfica

Best attack (3.00 goals/game) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Celtic

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Benfica at home · Celtic away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Benfica (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–0L

W 3

Played3

Goals scored (avg)4.70

Goals conceded (avg)0.70

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Celtic (away)

Played0

Goals scored (avg)0.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Benfica (home)Celtic (away)

W 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

4.70

0.00

Goals conceded (avg)

0.70

0.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

16.4%

2–0

14.1%

3–0

7.7%

2–1

6.4%

3–1

3.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Benfica 1 win · 1 draw · Celtic 0 wins · avg 1.5 goals · BTTS in 1 of 2

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
20 Nov 2012	Benfica	2–1	Celtic	UEFA Champions League
19 Sep 2012	Celtic	0–0	Benfica	UEFA Champions League

📈 Recent Form

Benfica

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
20/09	FC Porto	Away	1–3	L
16/09	AC Milan	Away	2–0	W
13/09	GIL Vicente	Home	3–1	W
09/09	Moreirense	Away	4–0	W
05/09	Maritimo	Away	3–0	W

Celtic

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
20/09	Rangers	Home	0–1	L
17/09	Ferencvarosi TC	Home	1–3	L
13/09	Rangers	Away	0–3	L
09/09	ST Johnstone	Away	1–0	W
05/09	ST Mirren	Away	2–1	W

📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Europa League

Benfica #7 · 3 pts — Celtic #28 · 0 pts

Benfica

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L

W 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)3.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.90

Clean sheets2

Failed to score0

Yellow cards10

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.11

xG against (avg)0.84

Corners for (avg)5.50

Penalties (scored/missed)4/0

Celtic

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L

L 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)3.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Yellow cards0

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.91

xG against (avg)0.70

Corners for (avg)8.50

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

BenficaCeltic

W 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

3.00

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

0.90

3.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.11

0.91

xG against (avg)

0.84

0.70

Corners for (avg)

5.50

8.50

Penalties (scored/missed)

4/0

0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Benfica

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Celtic

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Benfica

❌ A. Bah — Injury

Celtic

❌ L. Emenalo — Injury
❌ A. Johnston — Leg Injury
❌ Jota — Knee Injury
❌ S. Mheuka — Off the roster
❌ C. Osmand — Ankle Injury
❌ A. Oxlade-Chamberlain — Red Card
❌ J. van den Berg — Off the roster

More: UEFA Europa League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws