Predictions β†’ Portugal Primeira Liga

Santa Clara vs Benfica

Next match: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 76% 36% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 72% 72.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 82% 51.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 84% 54.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-1 62% 6.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Santa Clara 1.76 – 1.64 Benfica Β· expected total 3.41

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Santa Clara host Benfica in Round 9 of the Primeira Liga, and the stakes are unusually high for a fixture like this: the visitors sit 2nd on 19 points from 8 games, while Santa Clara are 4th on 18 points from 8. A win for the hosts would flip the table positions, which makes this far more than a routine away day.

The model sees a genuinely tight contest. Santa Clara arrive on a WDWWD run, Benfica on LWWWW, and the expected goals are almost level: 1.7638 for the home side against 1.6441 for the visitors, with both teams' recent xG sitting at 1.31. No injuries are reported on either side. History leans Benfica, who won three of the last five head-to-heads, including 3-0 and 4-1, though Santa Clara's 1-1 draw in September 2025 shows they can hold their own.

The headline tip is a home win at 36 percent with 76 confidence, and the double chance covering draw and away is rated 72.5 percent. Both teams to score lands at 51.7 percent, Over 2.5 goals at 54.9 percent, and the correct-score model likes 2-1 at 8.5 percent, followed by 2-0 at 5.17 and 3-1 at 5. Corners point to Over 9.5 with an expected 9.7 and 52.5 percent.

The caveat: no bookmaker odds are quoted here, so the value case rests on model probabilities alone, and a 36 percent home tip is far from a banker. Treat the correct-score and corners angles as speculative.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Santa Clara

Form (last 5)
WCasa Pia (A) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026DSC Braga (H) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026WArouca (A) 2–1 Β· 13/09/2026WRio Ave (H) 4–0 Β· 06/09/2026DAlverca (A) 1–1 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.31
xG against (recent avg)0.57
Elo strength rating1486

Benfica

Form (last 5)
LFC Porto (A) 1–3 Β· 20/09/2026WAC Milan (A) 2–0 Β· 16/09/2026WGIL Vicente (H) 3–1 Β· 13/09/2026WMoreirense (A) 4–0 Β· 09/09/2026WMaritimo (A) 3–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)3.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)1.11
xG against (recent avg)0.84
Elo strength rating1706
Santa ClaraBenfica
Goals scored (season avg)
1.60
3.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.60
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
2
5
xG for (recent avg)
1.31
1.11
xG against (recent avg)
0.57
0.84
Elo strength rating
1486
1706

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Santa Clara

Unbeaten 10
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Benfica

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Primeira Liga

Santa Clara

2nd best defence (0.60 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (4)

Benfica

Best attack (3.10 goals/game) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Santa Clara at home Β· Benfica away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Santa Clara (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–0L
W 2
D 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.50
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1

Benfica (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–1L
W 3
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)3.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Santa Clara (home)Benfica (away)
W 2
D 2
W 3
L 1
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
3.80
Goals conceded (avg)
0.50
0.80
Clean sheets
3
3
Failed to score
1
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
6.6%
2–0
4%
3–1
3.9%
1–0
3.8%
3–2
3.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Benfica 9 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Santa Clara 0 wins Β· avg 3.1 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

9
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
13 Feb 2026 Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica Primeira Liga
12 Sep 2025 Benfica 1–1 Santa Clara Primeira Liga
15 Feb 2025 Santa Clara 0–1 Benfica Primeira Liga
30 Oct 2024 Benfica 3–0 Santa Clara TaΓ§a da Liga
14 Sep 2024 Benfica 4–1 Santa Clara Primeira Liga
27 May 2023 Benfica 3–0 Santa Clara Primeira Liga
21 Jan 2023 Santa Clara 0–3 Benfica Primeira Liga
12 Feb 2022 Benfica 2–1 Santa Clara Primeira Liga
11 Sep 2021 Santa Clara 0–5 Benfica Primeira Liga
26 Apr 2021 Benfica 2–1 Santa Clara Primeira Liga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Santa Clara

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Casa Pia Away 1–0 W
20/09 SC Braga Home 0–0 D
13/09 Arouca Away 2–1 W
06/09 Rio Ave Home 4–0 W
29/08 Alverca Away 1–1 D

Benfica

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 FC Porto Away 1–3 L
16/09 AC Milan Away 2–0 W
13/09 GIL Vicente Home 3–1 W
09/09 Moreirense Away 4–0 W
05/09 Maritimo Away 3–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Primeira Liga

Santa Clara #4 Β· 18 pts β€”  Benfica #2 Β· 19 pts

Santa Clara

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–3D–0L
W 5
D 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score1
Yellow cards18
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.31
xG against (avg)0.57
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Benfica

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–1D–1L
W 6
D 1
L 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)3.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Yellow cards14
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.11
xG against (avg)0.84
Corners for (avg)5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
Santa ClaraBenfica
W 5
D 3
W 6
D 1
L 1
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
3.10
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
1.00
Clean sheets
4
3
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
18
14
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
1.31
1.11
xG against (avg)
0.57
0.84
Corners for (avg)
4.20
5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Santa Clara

0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
76-90
2
scored conceded

Benfica

1
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
8
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primeira Liga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws