Lech Poznan vs Sunderland

Next match: Thu, 22 Oct 2026 • 16:45 UTC+3 • League Stage - 3 • Stadion Poznan • ⛅ 9.9°C, 11 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	85%	59.6%	—	—	—	—
Double Chance	1X	77%	80.1%	—	—	—	—
BTTS	Yes	81%	49.7%	—	—	—	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	80%	47.8%	—	—	—	—
Correct Score	1-0	68%	10.4%	—	—	—	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.3 exp.)	Over 9.5	67%	57.5%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Lech Poznan 1.68 – 0.81 Sunderland · expected total 2.49

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Lech Poznan host Sunderland at Stadion Poznan on Thursday, 22 October 2026, with both sides hunting a first Europa League league-phase foothold. The visitors sit 15th on 3 points from 1 game, while Lech are 35th with 0 points from 1, so the hosts need a response in front of their own crowd.

The model leans home. Lech's recent expected goals read 2.53 against Sunderland's 2.72, yet the goal projections split sharply: 1.6056 for the hosts versus 0.8816 for the visitors. Form is mixed — Lech's WLLWW against Sunderland's LWLWD — and the away injury list is heavy with seven absentees including J. Angulo and C. Talbi, while Lech miss A. Douglas, A. Gholizadeh and A. Kozubal.

The headline tip is a home win at 54.6 percent with 83 confidence, and the double chance 1X at 77.5 percent is the safer route. Both teams to score lands at 48.7 percent, over 2.5 goals at 47 percent, and the top correct score is 1-0 at 9.9 percent. Corners offer the standout: over 9.5 at 57.5 percent from an expected 12.3.

The honest caveat: those goal numbers are modest, so a low-scoring, cagey European night could easily undercut the over and BTTS angles.

Updated 07 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Lech Poznan

Form (last 5)

WSlask Wroclaw (A) 4–1 · 10/10/2026DEnergie Cottbus (H) 2–2 · 03/10/2026WRadomiak Radom (H) 5–1 · 20/09/2026LCrystal Palace (A) 0–4 · 17/09/2026LGornik Zabrze (A) 1–2 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)3.00

Goals conceded (season avg)1.20

Win streak (best this season)3

xG for (recent avg)1.93

xG against (recent avg)0.70

Elo strength rating1326

Players out3

Sunderland

Form (last 5)

LBrighton (H) 0–2 · 10/10/2026 LManchester City (A) 3–5 · 20/09/2026 WAZ Alkmaar (H) 1–0 · 16/09/2026LArsenal (H) 0–2 · 12/09/2026WHull City (H) 1–0 · 08/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)0.00

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)2.30

xG against (recent avg)1.70

Elo strength rating1363

Players out7

Lech PoznanSunderland

WSlask Wroclaw (A) 4–1 · 10/10/2026DEnergie Cottbus (H) 2–2 · 03/10/2026WRadomiak Radom (H) 5–1 · 20/09/2026LCrystal Palace (A) 0–4 · 17/09/2026LGornik Zabrze (A) 1–2 · 12/09/2026

LBrighton (H) 0–2 · 10/10/2026 LManchester City (A) 3–5 · 20/09/2026 WAZ Alkmaar (H) 1–0 · 16/09/2026LArsenal (H) 0–2 · 12/09/2026WHull City (H) 1–0 · 08/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

3.00

1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.20

0.00

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.93

2.30

xG against (recent avg)

0.70

1.70

Elo strength rating

1326

1363

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Lech Poznan

Unbeaten 3

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Sunderland

Lost 2 in a row

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

1/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — UEFA Europa League

Lech Poznan

Best attack (3.00 goals/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (67%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Sunderland

2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Lech Poznan at home · Sunderland away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Lech Poznan (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L

W 2

Played2

Goals scored (avg)4.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.00

Clean sheets2

Failed to score0

Sunderland (away)

Played0

Goals scored (avg)0.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Lech Poznan (home)Sunderland (away)

W 2

Played

Goals scored (avg)

4.00

0.00

Goals conceded (avg)

0.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

10.4%

2–0

9.5%

2–1

7.7%

3–0

5.3%

3–1

4.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

📈 Recent Form

Lech Poznan

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Slask Wroclaw	Away	4–1	W
03/10	Energie Cottbus	Home	2–2	D
20/09	Radomiak Radom	Home	5–1	W
17/09	Crystal Palace	Away	0–4	L
12/09	Gornik Zabrze	Away	1–2	L

Sunderland

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Brighton	Home	0–2	L
20/09	Manchester City	Away	3–5	L
16/09	AZ Alkmaar	Home	1–0	W
12/09	Arsenal	Home	0–2	L
08/09	Hull City	Home	1–0	W

📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Europa League

Lech Poznan #35 · 0 pts — Sunderland #15 · 3 pts

Lech Poznan

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L

L 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)3.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets3

Failed to score1

Yellow cards8

Red cards1

xG for (avg)1.93

xG against (avg)0.70

Corners for (avg)6.80

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Sunderland

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L

W 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.00

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Yellow cards3

Red cards0

xG for (avg)2.30

xG against (avg)1.70

Corners for (avg)6.50

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Lech PoznanSunderland

L 1

W 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

3.00

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.20

0.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.93

2.30

xG against (avg)

0.70

1.70

Corners for (avg)

6.80

6.50

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Lech Poznan

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Sunderland

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Lech Poznan

❌ A. Douglas — Ankle Injury
❌ A. Gholizadeh — Knee Injury
❌ A. Kozubal — Thigh Injury

Sunderland

❌ J. Angulo — Off the roster
❌ A. Browne — Off the roster
❌ H. Diarra — Hamstring Injury
❌ M. Ellborg — Off the roster
❌ R. Mundle — Knee Injury
❌ J. Ta Bi — Off the roster
❌ C. Talbi — Off the roster

More: UEFA Europa League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws