Our model gives Phu Dong win a 92% confidence rating
Vietnam V.League 1 Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches • Next 20 Days • 7 Matches • Round 4 • Updated 1 hour ago • UTC+3
Regular Season, Round 4
Saturday, October 17
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | WLLWL |
Thanh Hóa
vs
Nam Dinh
|
DLWLD | 80% | 44.8% | Home | N/A | — |
| 14:00 | LWLWD |
Da Nang
vs
Hai Phong
|
LLWLD | 78% | 40.4% | Home | N/A | — |
| 14:00 | WWLLD |
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
vs
Song Lam Nghe An
|
DWWWL | 74% | 30.5% | Away | N/A | — |
Sunday, October 18
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | LWWLW |
Bắc Ninh
vs
Bình Phước
|
LLLLW | 86% | 61.2% | Home | N/A | — |
| 14:00 | DWWLW |
Phu Dong
vs
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
|
WLLLL | 92% | 76.4% | Home | N/A | — |
| 15:15 | WLWWW |
Công An Nhân Dân
vs
Ha Noi
|
WLLDL | 89% | 70.8% | Home | N/A | — |
Monday, October 19
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | DDLWL |
Ho Chi Minh
vs
Viettel
|
LDLWL | 75% | 32% | Home | N/A | — |
Top Trends from V.League 1 Teams
Our model gives Công An Nhân Dân win a 91% confidence rating
Our model gives Bắc Ninh win a 86% confidence rating
In their 10 most recent matches, Nam Dinh have achieved just 2 wins
In their 10 most recent matches, Hai Phong have achieved just 2 wins
Ha Noi have won 7 of the last 9 meetings against Da Nang
Bình Phước are on a run of 4 consecutive defeats
Predictlix V.League 1 Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 13, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Công An Nhân Dân carry the sharpest home edge in this window, with a 91 confidence rating and 73.9% probability against Thanh Hóa, driven by home and away attacking rates of 2.4629 and 1.0393. Phu Dong's clash with Ho Chi Minh tops the card at 76.4%, the highest model probability here. Elsewhere, Viettel's 81 confidence and 49.1% lean rests on a 1.1201 versus 0.5184 split. Back Công An Nhân Dân at home, medium stakes, given early-season caution.
Model Track Record in This League
Transparency matters more than marketing, so here are the real settled numbers from this league. Across 21 settled matches, the PredictLix model's match winner accuracy stands at 38.1% correct (8/21), while BTTS landed at 47.6% correct (10/21). Over/Under 2.5 sits at 52.4% correct (11/21), and correct score is just 4.8% correct (1/21). Double chance reached 81% correct (17/21), though draw picks returned 0% correct (0/10). High-confidence picks hit 47.6% correct (n=63); medium-confidence managed 32.7% correct (n=52).
Goals Landscape — Over/Under Breakdown
Công An Nhân Dân versus Thanh Hóa leans Over 2.5 at 55.5%, driven by a home lambda of 2.4629 against a visiting defence conceding 1.7 goals per game. Phu Dong against Ho Chi Minh carries the window's strongest Over indicator at 55.3%, with BTTS Yes at 56%. By contrast Viettel versus Bắc Ninh tilts firmly Under 2.5 at 59.2%, reflecting an away lambda of just 0.5184. Back Under 2.5 in that contest at 59.2% confidence for the safest goals play.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Bình Phước arrive on a run of 4 consecutive defeats, the longest losing sequence in this window. Công An Nhân Dân sit top with three straight victories, while Phu Dong and Song Lam Nghe An each carry a draw-then-two-wins pattern. Nam Dinh and Hai Phong have managed just 2 wins from their 10 most recent matches. Note that teams have played at most 3 rounds, so these streaks rest on short samples.
Defensive Lines — Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Công An Nhân Dân stand out defensively with 3 clean sheets and just 0 conceded per game. Phu Dong also look tidy at the back with 0.7 conceded per game and 1 clean sheet. By contrast, Thanh Hóa and Bình Phước both leak 2.3 goals per game, while Ha Noi ship 2.0 and Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2.3. Bắc Ninh, Hai Phong and Viettel sit mid-range on 1.3, and Song Lam Nghe An concede 1.0.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Công An Nhân Dân sit top on 9 points with a perfect WWW run, yet the snapshot stresses that every position is not yet meaningful given only 3 rounds played. Bình Phước remain bottom on 0 points and a GD of -6, still chasing a first win after 4 consecutive defeats. Viettel against Bắc Ninh is a mid-table Regular Season - 5 contest between 9th and 10th, both on 3 points. At the other end, Phu Dong and Song Lam Nghe An are level on 7 points.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
No accumulator can be offered here, because the snapshot confirms there are not enough priced high-confidence legs (confidence of 70 or above with real odds) across these twenty fixtures. Rather than force a false combination, the PredictLix model flags one standout single: Công An Nhân Dân to beat Thanh Hóa at 91 confidence, with a 73.9% predicted-outcome probability. Back that home win alone and treat the acca card as unavailable this window.
Head-to-Head & Historical Edge
Da Nang versus Ha Noi stands out historically, with Ha Noi winning 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two sides. That is a commanding head-to-head record. Meanwhile, the trend engine also flags Thanh Hóa, whose recent meetings with Nam Dinh have yielded just 2 wins in their 10 most recent matches. Both patterns suggest genuine historical edges rather than noise.
AI Prediction Accuracy — Season 2027/28
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types — wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form — Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration — Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) · <60% | 42.4% | 36.8% | 19 |
| Match Result (1X2) · 60-69% | 62.7% | 50.0% | 2 |
| Both Teams to Score · <60% | 53.3% | 38.9% | 18 |
| Both Teams to Score · 60-69% | 61.0% | 100.0% | 3 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · <60% | 54.2% | 55.0% | 20 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · 60-69% | 60.5% | 0.0% | 1 |
| Correct Score · <60% | 11.0% | 4.8% | 21 |
| Double Chance · 70-79% | 74.3% | 81.3% | 16 |
| Double Chance · 60-69% | 66.4% | 100.0% | 3 |
| Double Chance · 80+% | 83.8% | 50.0% | 2 |
| Draw Predictions · <60% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 10 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Regular Season, Round 3
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 15:15 | LDLWL |
Viettel
vs
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
|
WWLLD | 85% | 60.7% | Home ❌ | N/A | 1 – 3 FT |
| 10/10 13:00 | WLLLL |
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
vs
Da Nang
|
LWLWD | 74% | 29.2% | Away ❌ | N/A | 3 – 0 FT |
| 10/10 14:00 | LLWLD |
Hai Phong
vs
Thanh Hóa
|
WLLWL | 82% | 52.6% | Home ❌ | N/A | 1 – 2 FT |
| 10/10 14:00 | DLWLD |
Nam Dinh
vs
Phu Dong
|
DWWLW | 77% | 36.9% | Home ❌ | N/A | 1 – 1 FT |
| 11/10 14:00 | DWWWL |
Song Lam Nghe An
vs
Ho Chi Minh
|
DDLWL | 80% | 46.8% | Home ❌ | N/A | 1 – 1 FT |
| 11/10 15:15 | WLLDL |
Ha Noi
vs
Bắc Ninh
|
LWWLW | 76% | 35.8% | Home ✅ | N/A | 1 – 0 FT |