Our model gives Bodo/Glimt win a 92% confidence rating
Regular Season , Round 13
Saturday, July 11
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | LDWDW |
Fredrikstad
vs
Lillestrom
|
LLLLW | 67% | 23% | Draw | 3.34 | β |
| 17:00 | WDDWW |
Aalesund
vs
Molde
|
LLWWL | 80% | 47.7% | Home | N/A | β |
| 19:00 | WDDLW |
Tromso
vs
Valerenga
|
WLDWL | 85% | 57.5% | Home | N/A | β |
Sunday, July 12
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | LDWLL |
KFUM Oslo
vs
Bodo/Glimt
|
WWDWW | 67% | 22.5% | Draw | N/A | β |
| 18:00 | LWLLL |
Brann
vs
Start
|
LLWLL | 86% | 59.5% | Home | N/A | β |
| 18:00 | WDLLW |
Rosenborg
vs
Kristiansund BK
|
WLLLW | 83% | 53.2% | Home | N/A | β |
| 18:00 | LDLWW |
Sandefjord
vs
Ham-Kam
|
WDDWL | 68% | 24.2% | Draw | N/A | β |
| 20:15 | WWLWL |
Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
Viking
|
DWWWW | 67% | 23.3% | Draw | N/A | β |
Top Trends from Eliteserien Teams
Our model gives Viking win a 90% confidence rating
Start have failed to win in their last 10 matches
Tromso are unbeaten in 8 of their 10 most recent matches
In their 10 most recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF have achieved just 2 wins
Molde have won 8 of the last 9 meetings against Brann
Ham-Kam have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Sandefjord
Predictlix Eliteserien Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: July 4, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Bodo/Glimt's home clash with Fredrikstad stands out with 91% confidence, driven by a massive lambda gap of 2.85 versus 1.23. Viking hosting Sandefjord matches that confidence level, powered by a 3.34 home lambda and a perfect WWWWW form. Molde's 85% home edge over Brann also impresses, but Bodo/Glimt's 68.1% predicted win probability offers the clearest betting edge. Back Bodo/Glimt to win at odds around 1.40 with strong confidence.
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
Lillestrom versus Viking in Regular Season - 11 shows the highest BTTS probability across the board at 75.8%, supported by lambda values of 2.12 and 2.06. Over 2.5 lands at 77.5% for that clash, while Viking versus Sandefjord pushes 80.6% Over 2.5 with a towering home lambda of 3.34. On the flip side, Start versus Rosenborg leans Under, with Over 2.5 probability at just 68.8% and low attacking outputs. Back Over 2.5 in Viking vs Sandefjord at 80.6% probability β strong confidence at 92.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Bodo/Glimt carry a formidable home winning streak, with six consecutive victories at Aspmyra. Molde also impress with four straight wins across all competitions. Start have lost three on the bounce, a worrying trend. Lillestrom's recent form is mixed, but they have scored in five straight matches. Fredrikstad are winless in four, a pattern that raises questions.
Head-to-Head & Historical Edge
Bodo/Glimtβs historical edge over Ham-Kam is glaring. They have won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters, scoring at least two goals in each victory. Clean sheets appeared in three of those wins, suggesting defensive solidity too. Meanwhile, Moldeβs record against Brann shows clear dominance. The home side has secured victories in 3 of their last 4 meetings, with two of those wins keeping Brann scoreless. These recurring patterns give a strong statistical foundation to both matchups.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Bodo/Glimt boast the strongest defensive record in the window, consistently keeping clean sheets and conceding very few goals on average. At the other end, Sandefjord and Aalesund appear notably leaky, with high goals-conceded averages and rare clean sheets. Lillestrom and Molde show solid defensive numbers, while Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK are more vulnerable. Start's backline has been inconsistent, mixing stubborn displays with porous outings.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Bodo/Glimt, sitting top of the table, face Fredrikstad in Regular Season - 14 with the title race heating up. Molde host Brann in a pivotal clash for European qualification spots. At the other end, bottom-placed Aalesund travel to Valerenga fighting relegation. Start welcome Rosenborg needing points to climb away from danger. Lillestrom versus KFUM Oslo carries mid-table positioning weight. Every fixture carries genuine stakes across this Eliteserien window.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Bodo/Glimt against Fredrikstad carries 91% confidence and a 68.1% probability for a home win. Viking hosting Sandefjord matches that 91% confidence with a 67.5% probability, supported by Viking's perfect WWWWW form. Molde versus Brann offers 85% confidence and 57.4% probability. These three home wins form a solid accumulator. Bet on Bodo/Glimt, Viking, and Molde all to win at odds reflecting their strong PredictLix edges.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
