Our model gives Hammarby FF win a 89% confidence rating
Regular Season , Round 12
Saturday, July 11
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | DLDDD |
Mjallby AIF
vs
AIK Stockholm
|
WWLLW | 69% | 25.9% | Draw | N/A | β |
| 18:30 | LLDLL |
Orgryte IS
vs
BK Hacken
|
LLWDW | 68% | 23.9% | Draw | N/A | β |
Sunday, July 12
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | WWLLL |
Hammarby FF
vs
Kalmar FF
|
WWWLW | 88% | 63.4% | Home | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | WDWLL |
Malmo FF
vs
IFK Goteborg
|
LLDWD | 86% | 59.3% | Home | N/A | β |
| 15:00 | WLLWD |
Vasteras SK FK
vs
Degerfors IF
|
LWDLD | 67% | 23% | Draw | N/A | β |
| 17:30 | DLDWW |
IF Brommapojkarna
vs
Sirius
|
DDWWW | 65% | 19.7% | Draw | N/A | β |
| 17:30 | DWDWL |
Gais
vs
IF Elfsborg
|
LDDDD | 83% | 53.7% | Home | N/A | β |
Monday, July 13
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | WDLLW |
Djurgardens IF
vs
Halmstad
|
LDDLW | 88% | 62% | Home | N/A | β |
Top Trends from Allsvenskan Teams
Our model gives Sirius win a 89% confidence rating
Our model gives Djurgardens IF win a 88% confidence rating
BK Hacken are unbeaten in their last 10 matches
Halmstad have failed to win in their last 10 matches
IF Elfsborg are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
In their 10 most recent matches, IFK Goteborg have achieved just 2 wins
Predictlix Allsvenskan Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: July 4, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Hammarby FF's home clash with Degerfors IF carries the highest predicted outcome signal at 88% confidence. PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine projects a home lambda of 2.66 against Degerfors' 1.44, driving a 61.5% probability for the home win. Kalmar FF also shows strong home credentials at 88% against Orgryte IS, with a 63.3% win probability. Back Hammarby FF to win at attractive odds near 1.50, given the clear attacking edge.
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
Hammarby FF's clash with Degerfors IF stands out as a high-scoring affair. PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine gives a 69.6% BTTS probability and a 75.8% Over 2.5 chance, backed by a strong home lambda of 2.66. This fixture offers a confident Over 2.5 pick at odds around 1.80. Conversely, Djurgardens IF versus Halmstad leans Under, with a 50.4% Under probability and low expected goals. IFK Goteborg versus IF Brommapojkarna also trends Under, with a 40.9% Over 2.5 chance. Bet on Hammarby vs Degerfors Over 2.5 at 1.80 with high confidence.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Hammarby FF arrives on a strong three-match winning streak, a clear indicator of their current momentum. Djurgardens IF have won their last two outings, building solid form. In contrast, Halmstad are enduring a difficult run, having lost their previous three fixtures. BK Hacken have also struggled, going winless in their last three matches. These contrasting streaks shape the dynamics for several upcoming contests across the regular season rounds.
Head-to-Head & Historical Edge
Djurgardens IF hold a commanding historical edge over Halmstad. In their last five meetings, Djurgardens won four times, keeping three clean sheets. That pattern strongly supports their home favourite status. Mjallby AIF also carry significant H2H weight against Vasteras SK FK. Three wins from their past five clashes, with two clean sheets, highlight a clear upper hand. These statistical trends provide meaningful context ahead of both Regular Season ties.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF both average under 0.9 goals conceded per match, marking them as the division's sturdiest defensive units. Hammarby FF and BK Hacken also post clean sheet rates above 35%, indicating reliable backlines. At the opposite end, Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK concede over 1.7 goals per game on average. Gais and Sirius show mid-table defensive numbers, while IFK Goteborg's recent form hints at improvement.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Kalmar FF, predicted to win at home against Orgryte IS, need points in the Regular Season - 11 clash to solidify their position. Hammarby FF host Degerfors IF with strong home support, seeking to build momentum in Regular Season - 13. Malmo FF face IFK Goteborg in a Regular Season - 12 tie where the visitors are fighting to climb away from the relegation zone. Every fixture carries genuine stakes, with no dead rubbers in this window.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Kalmar FF at home against Orgryte IS is a standout pick with 88% confidence behind a home win, backed by strong attacking metrics from PredictLix's enhanced Poisson engine. Their 2.30 lambda and the visitors' poor form make the 1.51 price highly appealing for an accumulator leg. Hammarby FF also commands 88% confidence to beat Degerfors IF, with a 2.66 expected goals rate at home justifying the inclusion. Pairing these two strong home favourites creates a solid acca foundation.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Regular Season , Round 11
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 20:00 | DDWWW |
Sirius
vs
Mjallby AIF
|
DLDDD | 85% | 56.6% | Home β | @1.62 | 4 β 4 FT |
| 04/07 16:00 | LWDLD |
Degerfors IF
vs
Malmo FF
|
WDWLL | 67% | 22.1% | Draw β | @3.51 | 0 β 1 FT |
| 04/07 16:00 | LDDLW |
Halmstad
vs
Vasteras SK FK
|
WLLWD | 68% | 25.2% | Draw β | @3.47 | 1 β 3 FT |
| 05/07 15:00 | LLDWD |
IFK Goteborg
vs
AIK Stockholm
|
WWLLW | 68% | 23.9% | Draw β | @3.63 | 1 β 2 FT |
| 05/07 15:00 | WWWLW |
Kalmar FF
vs
Orgryte IS
|
LLDLL | 89% | 63.7% | Home β | @1.56 | 3 β 0 FT |
| 05/07 17:30 | LDDDD |
IF Elfsborg
vs
Hammarby FF
|
WWLLL | 67% | 22.9% | Draw β | @3.72 | 1 β 2 FT |
| 06/07 20:00 | DLDWW |
IF Brommapojkarna
vs
Gais
|
DWDWL | 67% | 22.9% | Draw β | @3.42 | 1 β 1 FT |
| 06/07 20:00 | LLWDW |
BK Hacken
vs
Djurgardens IF
|
WDLLW | 83% | 52.4% | Home β | @2.54 | 2 β 4 FT |
