Our model gives Boca Juniors win a 87% confidence rating
Argentina Liga Profesional Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches β’ Next 20 Days β’ 2 Matches β’ Round 12 β’ Updated 16 minutes ago β’ UTC+3
Clausura, Round 12
Friday, October 09
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 20:30 | LWLWL | LDWLW | 76% | 35.1% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 3 FT | |
| 10/10 00:00 | DDDWW | LLLWD | 87% | 65.7% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 1 FT | |
| 10/10 01:30 | WWWLW | WWWDW | 76% | 35% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 2 FT |
Saturday, October 10
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 03:45 | LLLWW | WDWLW | 77% | 37.9% | Home β | @2.30 | 0 β 2 FT | |
| 10/10 21:45 | WWLDD | LWWWD | 73% | 28.9% | Home β | @3.18 | 2 β 0 FT | |
| 10/10 23:00 | DDDLL | DWLLL | 74% | 30.3% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 2 FT | |
| 11/10 01:15 | LLLLD | DDDLL | 77% | 38.3% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 2 FT |
Sunday, October 11
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 03:30 | LWWWD | LLLLD | 92% | 88.1% | Home β | @1.21 | 1 β 0 FT | |
| 11/10 20:45 | LLDWL | DDLDD | 78% | 40% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 0 FT | |
| 11/10 23:00 | DWLWL | WLDDW | 74% | 30.5% | Draw β | N/A | 1 β 1 FT | |
| 11/10 23:00 | DWWWD | DWWLW | 79% | 42.3% | Home β | N/A | 5 β 0 FT | |
| 12/10 01:15 | WLWLL | WWDDD | 79% | 43% | Home β | N/A | 0 β 2 FT |
Today - Monday, October 12
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 03:30 | LLWLD | LWDWL | 79% | 42.1% | Home β | @2.26 | 0 β 0 FT | |
| 22:00 | DWWWL | DWDWD | 78% | 41.2% | Home | 2.25 | β | |
| 00:30 | LDLDW | DWDDD | 75% | 33.2% | Home | 2.38 | β |
Top Trends from Liga Profesional Teams
Our model gives River Plate win a 85% confidence rating
Velez Sarsfield are unbeaten in their last 10 matches
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have failed to win in their last 10 matches
Instituto Cordoba are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
In their 10 most recent matches, Deportivo Riestra have achieved just 1 wins
Central Cordoba de Santiago have failed to win in their last 8 matches
Predictlix Liga Profesional Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 9, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
River Plate against Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto carries the strongest signal in this window, with the PredictLix model assigning a 92 confidence rating and an 87.5% probability to a home win, the highest figure across all twenty fixtures. That gap stems from a home lambda of 1.8977 against an away lambda of just 0.4614, reflecting Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's ten-match winless run. Velez Sarsfield over Gimnasia M. also stands out at 56.6%, while Gimnasia L.P. against Atletico Tucuman sits at 56.2%. Back River Plate at 1.21, or combine all three legs at 4.15.
Goals Landscape β Over/Under Breakdown
San Lorenzo versus Deportivo Riestra is the window's clearest Under lean, with the PredictLix model reading 70.8% and lambdas of 0.8482 and 0.4091. Barracas Central against Huracan follows at 56.9% Under, priced 1.33. Velez Sarsfield versus Gimnasia M. swings the other way on 57.7% Over. Back Under 2.5 in San Lorenzo at 1.4 with high confidence.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Boca Juniors arrive unbeaten in their last 10 matches, the longest active run in this window, while Velez Sarsfield match that mark across their own last 10 outings. Instituto Cordoba have avoided defeat in 9 of their 10 most recent matches, a quieter but stubborn pattern. At the other end, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have failed to win in their last 10 matches. Deportivo Riestra have managed just 1 win in their 10 most recent, and Aldosivi only 2. Full data coverage applies throughout.
Defensive Lines β Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
River Plate's defensive record stands out with 15 clean sheets from 31 matches and just 0.7 conceded per game. San Lorenzo also impresses, registering 13 clean sheets with 0.7 conceded on average. At the other end, Deportivo Riestra have leaked 1.4 goals per game across 27 matches, managing only 6 clean sheets. Central Cordoba de Santiago and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto share a similarly porous profile, each conceding 1.4 per outing.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Estudiantes L.P. sit top on 31 points with a Champions League spot, while Boca Juniors chase on 30 points. At the bottom, Central Cordoba de Santiago, Newells Old Boys and Deportivo Riestra occupy the RELEGATION ZONE and must win. Defensa Y Justicia and Gimnasia M. are in a relegation battle needing points. Velez Sarsfield, third on 28 points, and Talleres Cordoba in fourth, both hold Champions League spots in Clausura - 13.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
River Plate lead the PredictLix acca at 1.21, the shortest price of the three legs, after the model handed them a 92 confidence rating against Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. Gimnasia L.P. follow at 1.95, backed by a 56.2% home win probability, while Tigre complete the treble at 1.76. Combined odds across all three selections stand at 4.15. Back this treble, but keep stakes modest given the model's 42.9% match-winner hit rate.
Model vs Market β Value Edges
River Plate's home clash with Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto stands out, where the PredictLix model rates the win at 87.5% against an implied 80%, a +7.5pp edge at odds of 1.21. Gimnasia L.P. versus Atletico Tucuman also qualifies, with the model at 56.2% versus 49.7% implied, giving +6.5pp at 1.95. A positive edge simply means the price looks generous over the long run, not that this particular match must land. Back both home wins, with the River Plate leg the safer anchor.
AI Prediction Accuracy β Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types β wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form β Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration β Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 60-69% | 64.6% | 50.0% | 2 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· <60% | 40.2% | 26.1% | 23 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 70-79% | 73.3% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Match Result (1X2) Β· 80+% | 88.1% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· <60% | 51.6% | 50.0% | 26 |
| Both Teams to Score Β· 60-69% | 63.4% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· <60% | 51.6% | 37.5% | 24 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· 60-69% | 62.3% | 100.0% | 2 |
| Over / Under 2.5 Β· 70-79% | 70.8% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Correct Score Β· <60% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 27 |
| Double Chance Β· 70-79% | 73.9% | 61.5% | 13 |
| Double Chance Β· 60-69% | 68.0% | 37.5% | 8 |
| Double Chance Β· 80+% | 84.3% | 100.0% | 6 |
| Corners Over/Under Β· <60% | 54.1% | 55.6% | 27 |
| Draw Predictions Β· <60% | 28.3% | 50.0% | 8 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Clausura, Round 11
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 01:15 | WDWLD | WWLWD | 77% | 37.6% | Home β | @2.56 | 1 β 4 FT | |
| 03/10 03:30 | DLWLW | LLWWW | 88% | 68.2% | Home β | @1.50 | 3 β 0 FT | |
| 03/10 03:30 | LDDWW | DDWWL | 81% | 48.6% | Home β | @2.18 | 1 β 1 FT | |
| 03/10 20:45 | DWLWW | LDWLD | 80% | 47.4% | Home β | @2.17 | 3 β 0 FT | |
| 03/10 23:00 | LLWDD | LDDDL | 81% | 48.4% | Home β | @1.98 | 2 β 3 FT | |
| 03/10 23:00 | DWDDD | DWWWL | 76% | 34.6% | Home β | @2.89 | 0 β 0 FT | |
| 04/10 20:45 | WWWDD | LWLWL | 85% | 59.7% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 0 FT | |
| 04/10 23:00 | LLWLD | WWDDD | 73% | 28% | Away β | N/A | 0 β 1 FT | |
| 05/10 01:15 | LDDWD | LLLDW | 81% | 49.9% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 1 FT | |
| 05/10 03:30 | LLLDD | LWLLL | 75% | 32.6% | Away β | N/A | 1 β 2 FT | |
| 05/10 22:45 | DLDDD | DLLDL | 78% | 41% | Home β | N/A | 1 β 1 FT | |
| 06/10 01:00 | LWWDL | LDLDW | 90% | 73.3% | Home β | N/A | 3 β 0 FT | |
| 06/10 01:00 | DWDWD | LWLLD | 86% | 61% | Home β | N/A | 2 β 2 FT | |
| 06/10 03:15 | DDLLL | WWWDL | 74% | 30.7% | Away β | N/A | 1 β 1 FT |