Predictions → Argentina Liga Profesional

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Mon, 09 Nov 2026 • 00:00 UTC+3 • Clausura - 16 • Estadio 15 de Abril

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Draw Current price not available27.7% —
Double Chance 1X Current price not available67.9% —
BTTS Yes Current price not available57.3% · No 42.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Current price not available47.6% · Over 52.4% —
Correct Score 1-1 Current price not available13.2% —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.5 exp.) Under 9.5 Current price not available58.2% · Over 41.8% —

🧠 Match Preview

Union Santa Fe · Home

Union Santa Fe have drawn two of their last five and failed to score in two of them, including a 0-2 home loss to Defensa Y Justicia. Their most recent meeting with Velez Sarsfield finished 2-2, and the 2024 fixture between these sides ended 1-0 in Union's favour.

Velez Sarsfield · Away

Velez Sarsfield scored 10 goals across their last five, yet their recent xG for of 0.89 sits well below Union's 1.57. They also drew 2-2 with San Lorenzo and 2-2 with Platense in that run, showing a tendency to share the points.

Draws Run Through This Fixture

The latest head-to-head ended 2-2, and the 2023 meeting finished 0-0, so two of the three supplied encounters were drawn. Union Santa Fe have drawn two of their last five, while Velez Sarsfield have drawn two of theirs, and both arrive with matching 2-2 and 1-1 scorelines in recent results. The model's 1-1 correct score at 13.2% fits that pattern of shared points rather than a decisive edge. The evidence supports Draw.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:51 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.48 – 1.30 Velez Sarsfield · expected total 2.78

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Union Santa Fe

Form (last 5)
DWDLL
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Best league winning streak this season3
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.57
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.45
Elo strength rating1564

Velez Sarsfield

Form (last 5)
DWWLD
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Best league winning streak this season3
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.89
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.06
Elo strength rating1415
Union Santa FeVelez Sarsfield
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
0.80
Best league winning streak this season
3
3
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.57
0.89
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.45
2.06
Elo strength rating
1564
1415

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Union Santa Fe

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
0/6

Velez Sarsfield

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Liga Profesional

Union Santa Fe

Best attack (1.50 goals/game, season) Worst clean sheets (5, season)

Velez Sarsfield

Best defence (0.80 conceded/game, season) 3rd best Over 2.5 rate (67%, last 6)

Rank among 30 Liga Profesional teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Union Santa Fe at home · Velez Sarsfield away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Union Santa Fe (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–4D–4L
W 7
D 4
L 4
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3

Velez Sarsfield (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–8D–2L
W 5
D 8
L 2
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets5
Failed to score2
Union Santa Fe (home)Velez Sarsfield (away)
W 7
D 4
L 4
W 5
D 8
L 2
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
0.90
Clean sheets
5
5
Failed to score
3
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–1
13.16%
0–0
7.44%
2–2
5.74%
3–3
1.22%
4–4
0.15%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Union Santa Fe 3 wins · 2 draws · Velez Sarsfield 4 wins · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 3 of 9

3
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
28 Apr 2026 Velez Sarsfield 2–2 Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina
08 Dec 2024 Union Santa Fe 1–0 Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina
24 Jul 2023 Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina
07 Aug 2022 Union Santa Fe 2–1 Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina
07 Sep 2021 Velez Sarsfield 4–0 Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina
05 Apr 2021 Velez Sarsfield 4–1 Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina
10 Mar 2020 Union Santa Fe 0–3 Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina
25 Nov 2018 Union Santa Fe 0–2 Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina
07 Nov 2017 Velez Sarsfield 0–2 Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina

📈 Recent Form

Union Santa Fe

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
02/11 Newells Old Boys Away 1–1 D
27/10 Estudiantes L.P. Home 3–1 W
20/10 Deportivo Riestra Away 1–1 D
10/10 Defensa Y Justicia Home 0–2 L
03/10 Boca Juniors Away 0–3 L
19/09 Independiente Home 1–2 L
13/09 Talleres Cordoba Away 1–2 L
08/09 Instituto Cordoba Home 3–2 W
29/08 Sarmiento Junin Home 4–1 W
21/08 Aldosivi Away 3–1 W

Velez Sarsfield

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 San Lorenzo Home 2–2 D
26/10 Central Cordoba de Santiago Away 5–0 W
18/10 Gimnasia M. Home 1–0 W
12/10 Lanus Away 0–2 L
06/10 Platense Home 2–2 D
21/09 Tigre Home 3–2 W
11/09 Newells Old Boys Away 1–1 D
06/09 Estudiantes L.P. Home 1–0 W
29/08 Deportivo Riestra Away 1–1 D
24/08 River Plate Away 2–2 D

📊 Season Comparison: Liga Profesional

Union Santa Fe #8 · 21 pts ·  Velez Sarsfield #3 · 28 pts

Union Santa Fe

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–6D–5L
W 5
D 6
L 5
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets5
Failed to score9
Yellow cards72
Red cards3
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.57
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.45
Corners for (avg)4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)4/0

Velez Sarsfield

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–7D–2L
W 7
D 7
L 2
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets12
Failed to score5
Yellow cards66
Red cards2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.89
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.06
Corners for (avg)4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0
Union Santa FeVelez Sarsfield
W 5
D 6
L 5
W 7
D 7
L 2
Played
16
16
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
0.80
Clean sheets
5
12
Failed to score
9
5
Yellow cards
72
66
Red cards
3
2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.57
0.89
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.45
2.06
Corners for (avg)
4.00
4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/0
3/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Union Santa Fe

2
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
9
31-45
6
12
46-60
9
7
61-75
11
11
76-90
10
scored conceded

Velez Sarsfield

4
0-15
11
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
7
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
7
7
76-90
10
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Liga Profesional predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws