Union Santa Fe vs Estudiantes L.P.

Union Santa Fe host Estudiantes L.P. at the Estadio 15 de Abril in round 14 of the Clausura, and the table tells a lopsided story: the visitors sit top with 31 points from 16 games, while Union are eighth on 21. Form cuts against the standings, though. Union's last five read LLLLW, a run that has dragged them down, while Estudiantes arrive on LDDWL, winless in three and wobbling at exactly the wrong moment.

The model sees a tight, low-scoring game. Expected goals are almost level, with Union at 1.2135 and Estudiantes at 1.1479, and recent shot quality is similarly balanced at 1.57 for the hosts and 1.7 for the visitors. No injuries are listed on either side, so there is no selection excuse to lean on. The head-to-head is mixed: Estudiantes won 2-1 in April 2026, Union won 1-0 in July 2025, Estudiantes took a 3-1 in January 2025, and the two meetings before that finished 0-0 and 0-1.

The headline call is a draw at 28 percent with confidence of 68, and the double chance 1X at 64.4 percent is the safer expression of the same read. Under 2.5 goals lands at 47.8 percent, with 1-1 the most likely score at 11.9 percent and 0-0 close behind. Both teams to score sits at 49.6 percent, and corners point under 9.5 at 54.4 percent against an expected 8.5. Value hides in the draw and the 1X line if the bookmaker prices Estudiantes' table position too heavily; compare the 28 percent and 64.4 percent against the odds on offer before committing.

The honest caveat: a 28 percent draw is a thin edge, and Estudiantes' league-leading quality could break the low-scoring script. Treat the draw as a small-stake angle, not a banker.