Predictions → Argentina Liga Profesional

Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 20:00 UTC+3 • Clausura - 13 • Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi • ☀️ 16°C, 14 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Double Chance — 1X
Model 83.1% · Market best price ≈ 78.1% · Edge +5.1 pp
Best odds 1.28 Bet365 1.28William Hill 1.25Betfair 1.25
Bet this pick →
¼ Kelly sizing: 5.7% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.21 → 2.15 ▼3% 81% 47.9% 2.15 Bet365 46% +1.9 pp
Double Chance 1X 79% 83.1% 1.28 Bet365 78% +5.1 pp
BTTS No 84% 55.7% 1.65 Betano 57.1% -1.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 84% 55.5% 1.50 Betano 64.5% -9 pp
Correct Score 1-0 80% 16.9% 5.50 Bet365 8.9% +8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.1 exp.) Under 9.5 64% 55.4% 1.47 Betano 63.4% -8 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Estudiantes L.P. 1.29 – 0.53 San Lorenzo · expected total 1.82

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Estudiantes L.P.

Form (last 5)
DCentral Cordoba de Santiago (A) 2–2 · 10/10/2026WGimnasia M. (H) 3–0 · 05/10/2026LPlatense (A) 0–1 · 02/10/2026LRosario Central (H) 1–3 · 26/09/2026LLanus (A) 1–2 · 22/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)0.70
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.21
xG against (recent avg)0.15
Elo strength rating1501

San Lorenzo

Form (last 5)
LDefensa Y Justicia (A) 0–3 · 03/10/2026LBoca Juniors (H) 0–2 · 20/09/2026DIndependiente (A) 1–1 · 13/09/2026WTalleres Cordoba (H) 1–0 · 05/09/2026LInstituto Cordoba (A) 0–1 · 01/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.54
xG against (recent avg)0.74
Elo strength rating1337
Estudiantes L.P.San Lorenzo
LDefensa Y Justicia (A) 0–3 · 03/10/2026LBoca Juniors (H) 0–2 · 20/09/2026DIndependiente (A) 1–1 · 13/09/2026WTalleres Cordoba (H) 1–0 · 05/09/2026LInstituto Cordoba (A) 0–1 · 01/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.20
0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.70
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.21
0.54
xG against (recent avg)
0.15
0.74
Elo strength rating
1501
1337

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Estudiantes L.P.

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

San Lorenzo

Lost 2 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Liga Profesional

Estudiantes L.P.

Best defence (0.70 conceded/game) 2nd best clean sheets (13)

San Lorenzo

2nd worst BTTS rate (17%) 2nd best clean sheets (13)

Rank among 30 Liga Profesional teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Estudiantes L.P. at home · San Lorenzo away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Estudiantes L.P. (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–2D–4L
W 9
D 2
L 4
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.50
Clean sheets8
Failed to score6

San Lorenzo (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–7D–6L
W 2
D 7
L 6
Played15
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets6
Failed to score9
Estudiantes L.P. (home)San Lorenzo (away)
W 9
D 2
L 4
W 2
D 7
L 6
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
0.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.50
0.90
Clean sheets
8
6
Failed to score
6
9

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
16.9%
2–0
11.5%
2–1
6.1%
3–0
5%
3–1
2.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Estudiantes L.P. 1 win · 6 draws · San Lorenzo 3 wins · avg 1.4 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10

1
6
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
03 Apr 2026 San Lorenzo 1–0 Estudiantes L.P. Liga Profesional Argentina
05 Nov 2024 San Lorenzo 1–1 Estudiantes L.P. Liga Profesional Argentina
13 Feb 2024 San Lorenzo 1–1 Estudiantes L.P. Copa de la Liga Profesional
20 Sep 2023 Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 San Lorenzo Copa de la Liga Profesional
21 Jun 2023 Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina
07 Aug 2022 San Lorenzo 0–0 Estudiantes L.P. Liga Profesional Argentina
27 Jan 2022 Estudiantes L.P. 1–2 San Lorenzo Friendlies Clubs
26 Aug 2021 Estudiantes L.P. 2–0 San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina
30 Mar 2021 Estudiantes L.P. 0–2 San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina
01 Dec 2020 Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina

📈 Recent Form

Estudiantes L.P.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Central Cordoba de Santiago Away 2–2 D
05/10 Gimnasia M. Home 3–0 W
02/10 Platense Away 0–1 L
26/09 Rosario Central Home 1–3 L
22/09 Lanus Away 1–2 L

San Lorenzo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
03/10 Defensa Y Justicia Away 0–3 L
20/09 Boca Juniors Home 0–2 L
13/09 Independiente Away 1–1 D
05/09 Talleres Cordoba Home 1–0 W
01/09 Instituto Cordoba Away 0–1 L

📊 Season Comparison — Liga Profesional

Estudiantes L.P. #1 · 31 pts —  San Lorenzo #7 · 22 pts

Estudiantes L.P.

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–4D–3L
W 9
D 4
L 3
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets13
Failed to score13
Yellow cards77
Red cards3
xG for (avg)0.21
xG against (avg)0.15
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)2/2

San Lorenzo

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–7D–4L
W 5
D 7
L 4
Played16
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets13
Failed to score12
Yellow cards68
Red cards5
xG for (avg)0.54
xG against (avg)0.74
Corners for (avg)3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1
Estudiantes L.P.San Lorenzo
W 9
D 4
L 3
W 5
D 7
L 4
Played
16
16
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
1.00
Clean sheets
13
13
Failed to score
13
12
Yellow cards
77
68
Red cards
3
5
xG for (avg)
0.21
0.54
xG against (avg)
0.15
0.74
Corners for (avg)
4.60
3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/2
1/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Estudiantes L.P.

3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
2
46-60
9
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
12
scored conceded

San Lorenzo

3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
8
46-60
3
5
61-75
6
2
76-90
7
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Liga Profesional predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws