Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 20:00 UTC+3 • Clausura - 13 • Estadio Guillermo Laza

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	74%	30.5%	2.52	Betano	38.8%	-8.3 pp
Double Chance	1X	68%	68.2%	1.35	Betano	71.6%	-3.4 pp
BTTS	No	85%	56.5%	1.65	Betano	57.4%	-0.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	87%	60.4%	1.44	Betano	66.7%	-6.3 pp
Correct Score	1-0	74%	13.7%	6.00	Bet365	8.1%	+5.6 pp
Draw (value pick)	Draw	78%	29.3%	2.94	1xBet	32.8%	-3.5 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.7 exp.)	Under 9.5	66%	56.5%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Deportivo Riestra 0.69 – 0.68 Union Santa Fe · expected total 1.37

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Deportivo Riestra host Union Santa Fe at Estadio Guillermo Laza on Sunday, with the visitors sitting 8th on 21 points from 16 games and the hosts down in 15th on 11 points from the same number of matches. The table says Union should be favoured, but the model reads this one very differently.

Form is the first clue. Riestra arrive on DDLDD, Union on LLLLW, so the away side's league position is doing a lot of heavy lifting against a poor recent run. The goal projections are strikingly low at both ends, with Riestra at 0.69 and Union at 0.68 expected goals, even though recent xG figures sit higher at 1.27 for the hosts and 1.07 for the visitors. No injuries are listed for either squad.

The model leans home: a Riestra win is priced at 30.5% with odds of 2.52, while the double chance 1X lands at 68.2%. The draw alone carries 29.3% at 78 confidence, which is where the quietest value may sit. Goals look scarce, with Under 2.5 at 60.4% (odds 1.44) and both teams to score No at 56.5% (odds 1.65). The correct-score pick is 1-0 at 13.7%, with 1-0 the top scoreline at 16.34. Corners point low too, Under 9.5 at 56.5% against an expected 7.7.

The honest caveat: a 30.5% home probability is not a strong edge, and Union's 2-0 win in the most recent head-to-head shows they can punish Riestra. Treat the outright home tip as thin and the unders as the steadier ground.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Deportivo Riestra

Form (last 5)

DCentral Cordoba de Santiago (H) 1–1 · 05/10/2026 DGimnasia M. (A) 0–0 · 19/09/2026 LLanus (H) 0–3 · 14/09/2026DPlatense (A) 1–1 · 04/09/2026DVelez Sarsfield (H) 1–1 · 29/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)0.50

Goals conceded (season avg)0.90

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.65

xG against (recent avg)0.54

Elo strength rating1316

Union Santa Fe

Form (last 5)

LDefensa Y Justicia (H) 0–2 · 10/10/2026 LBoca Juniors (A) 0–3 · 03/10/2026 LIndependiente (H) 1–2 · 19/09/2026LTalleres Cordoba (A) 1–2 · 12/09/2026WInstituto Cordoba (H) 3–2 · 08/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.40

Goals conceded (season avg)1.50

Win streak (best this season)3

xG for (recent avg)0.75

xG against (recent avg)0.78

Elo strength rating1564

Deportivo RiestraUnion Santa Fe

DCentral Cordoba de Santiago (H) 1–1 · 05/10/2026 DGimnasia M. (A) 0–0 · 19/09/2026 LLanus (H) 0–3 · 14/09/2026DPlatense (A) 1–1 · 04/09/2026DVelez Sarsfield (H) 1–1 · 29/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

0.50

1.40

Goals conceded (season avg)

0.90

1.50

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.65

0.75

xG against (recent avg)

0.54

0.78

Elo strength rating

1316

1564

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Deportivo Riestra

Winless 7

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

1/6

Scored

3/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Union Santa Fe

Lost 4 in a row Winless 4

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Liga Profesional

Deportivo Riestra

2nd worst attack (0.50 goals/game)

Union Santa Fe

3rd best attack (1.40 goals/game) Worst defence (1.50 conceded/game) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%) Worst clean sheets (5)

Rank among 30 Liga Profesional teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Deportivo Riestra at home · Union Santa Fe away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Deportivo Riestra (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–7D–4L

W 3

D 7

L 4

Played14

Goals scored (avg)0.80

Goals conceded (avg)0.70

Clean sheets6

Failed to score7

Union Santa Fe (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–9L

W 4

D 3

L 9

Played16

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.80

Clean sheets0

Failed to score6

Deportivo Riestra (home)Union Santa Fe (away)

W 3

D 7

L 4

W 4

D 3

L 9

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.80

1.30

Goals conceded (avg)

0.70

1.80

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

13.7%

2–0

5.1%

2–1

3.4%

3–0

1.2%

3–1

0.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Deportivo Riestra 0 wins · 1 draw · Union Santa Fe 1 win · avg 1 goals · BTTS in 0 of 2

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
03 Apr 2026	Union Santa Fe	2–0	Deportivo Riestra	Liga Profesional Argentina
31 Aug 2024	Union Santa Fe	0–0	Deportivo Riestra	Liga Profesional Argentina

📈 Recent Form

Deportivo Riestra

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
05/10	Central Cordoba de Santiago	Home	1–1	D
19/09	Gimnasia M.	Away	0–0	D
14/09	Lanus	Home	0–3	L
04/09	Platense	Away	1–1	D
29/08	Velez Sarsfield	Home	1–1	D

Union Santa Fe

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Defensa Y Justicia	Home	0–2	L
03/10	Boca Juniors	Away	0–3	L
19/09	Independiente	Home	1–2	L
12/09	Talleres Cordoba	Away	1–2	L
08/09	Instituto Cordoba	Home	3–2	W

📊 Season Comparison — Liga Profesional

Deportivo Riestra #15 · 11 pts — Union Santa Fe #8 · 21 pts

Deportivo Riestra

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–8D–7L

W 1

D 8

L 7

Played16

Goals scored (avg)0.50

Goals conceded (avg)0.90

Clean sheets10

Failed to score17

Yellow cards85

Red cards1

xG for (avg)0.65

xG against (avg)0.54

Corners for (avg)2.90

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Union Santa Fe

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–6D–5L

W 5

D 6

L 5

Played16

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.50

Clean sheets5

Failed to score9

Yellow cards71

Red cards3

xG for (avg)0.75

xG against (avg)0.78

Corners for (avg)3.90

Penalties (scored/missed)4/0

Deportivo RiestraUnion Santa Fe

W 1

D 8

L 7

W 5

D 6

L 5

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.50

1.40

Goals conceded (avg)

0.90

1.50

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.65

0.75

xG against (avg)

0.54

0.78

Corners for (avg)

2.90

3.90

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/0

4/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Deportivo Riestra

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Union Santa Fe

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Liga Profesional predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws