Predictions β†’ Argentina Liga Profesional

Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 20:00 UTC+3 β€’ Clausura - 13 β€’ Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro β€’ ☁️ 18.6Β°C, 5 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 2.3 β†’ 2.46 β–²7% 76% 36.3% 2.46 Pinnacle 40.8% -4.5 pp
Double Chance X2 69% 68.9% 1.35 William Hill 73.6% -4.7 pp
BTTS No 81% 48.9% 1.72 Betano 55% -6.1 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 52.3% 1.53 Betano 63.5% -11.2 pp
Correct Score 0-1 68% 10.4% 6.10 Betano 8.1% +2.3 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.2 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.4% 2.10 Bet365 44.3% +9.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Atletico Tucuman 0.94 – 1.16 Rosario Central Β· expected total 2.10

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Atletico Tucuman host Rosario Central in Round 13 of the Clausura, and the form book points firmly in one direction. The visitors arrive on a DWWWD run, while the hosts have stumbled through DLLLW and sit uncomfortably close to the wrong end of the table. The model gives Rosario Central a 36.3 percent win probability at odds of 2.46, and the double chance X2 lands at 68.9 percent β€” the safest route into this fixture.

The underlying numbers back the away side. Rosario Central's recent expected goals sit at 1.12 against Atletico's 0.5, and the season-long attacking split reads 1.1573 to 0.9427 in their favour. History agrees: Rosario Central have won three of the last five meetings, including a 2-1 victory in April 2026, with the most recent clash in Tucuman finishing 0-0. No injuries are reported on either side.

For bettors, the value hides in the goals markets. Under 2.5 is priced at 1.53 with a 52.3 percent model probability, while BTTS No sits at 1.72 on 48.9 percent β€” both lean toward a tight, low-scoring away performance. The correct score model favours 0-1 at 10.4 percent, with 0-2 and 1-2 next in line. Corners offer a separate angle: an expected 10.2 and a 53.4 percent chance of Over 9.5.

The honest caveat is Atletico's home ground. The Jose Fierro is rarely a comfortable away trip, and a single set piece could flip a match the model reads as low-event. Treat the away win as the pick, but the double chance as the smarter insurance.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Atletico Tucuman

Form (last 5)
DGimnasia L.P. (A) 1–1 Β· 09/10/2026LBarracas Central (H) 2–3 Β· 03/10/2026LAldosivi (A) 0–1 Β· 21/09/2026LRiver Plate (H) 1–2 Β· 12/09/2026WRacing Club (A) 2–1 Β· 07/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.18
xG against (recent avg)0.32
Elo strength rating1332

Rosario Central

Form (last 5)
DBanfield (A) 1–1 Β· 06/10/2026WEstudiantes L.P. (A) 3–1 Β· 26/09/2026WArgentinos JRS (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026WTigre (A) 1–0 Β· 13/09/2026DNewells Old Boys (H) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)0.90
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.74
xG against (recent avg)0.55
Elo strength rating1408
Atletico TucumanRosario Central
DBanfield (A) 1–1 Β· 06/10/2026WEstudiantes L.P. (A) 3–1 Β· 26/09/2026WArgentinos JRS (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026WTigre (A) 1–0 Β· 13/09/2026DNewells Old Boys (H) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.90
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.10
0.90
Win streak (best this season)
1
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.18
0.74
xG against (recent avg)
0.32
0.55
Elo strength rating
1332
1408

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Atletico Tucuman

Winless 4
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Rosario Central

Unbeaten 5
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Atletico Tucuman at home Β· Rosario Central away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Atletico Tucuman (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–8D–4L
W 2
D 8
L 4
Played14
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets7
Failed to score6

Rosario Central (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–4D–4L
W 7
D 4
L 4
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3
Atletico Tucuman (home)Rosario Central (away)
W 2
D 8
L 4
W 7
D 4
L 4
Played
14
15
Goals scored (avg)
0.90
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
1.00
Clean sheets
7
5
Failed to score
6
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
10.4%
0–2
6.6%
1–2
6.3%
0–3
2.6%
1–3
2.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Atletico Tucuman 0 wins Β· 5 draws Β· Rosario Central 4 wins Β· avg 2.2 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 9

5
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
05 Apr 2026 Rosario Central 2–1 Atletico Tucuman Liga Profesional Argentina
09 Aug 2025 Atletico Tucuman 0–0 Rosario Central Liga Profesional Argentina
08 Feb 2025 Rosario Central 3–1 Atletico Tucuman Liga Profesional Argentina
26 Aug 2024 Rosario Central 1–0 Atletico Tucuman Liga Profesional Argentina
26 Jan 2024 Atletico Tucuman 1–1 Rosario Central Copa de la Liga Profesional
20 Aug 2023 Rosario Central 0–0 Atletico Tucuman Copa de la Liga Profesional
18 Apr 2023 Atletico Tucuman 2–2 Rosario Central Liga Profesional Argentina
14 Oct 2022 Atletico Tucuman 1–1 Rosario Central Liga Profesional Argentina
20 Nov 2021 Rosario Central 3–1 Atletico Tucuman Liga Profesional Argentina

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Atletico Tucuman

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Gimnasia L.P. Away 1–1 D
03/10 Barracas Central Home 2–3 L
21/09 Aldosivi Away 0–1 L
12/09 River Plate Home 1–2 L
07/09 Racing Club Away 2–1 W

Rosario Central

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
06/10 Banfield Away 1–1 D
26/09 Estudiantes L.P. Away 3–1 W
20/09 Argentinos JRS Home 1–0 W
13/09 Tigre Away 1–0 W
06/09 Newells Old Boys Home 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Liga Profesional

Atletico Tucuman

Played28
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets11
Failed to score9
Yellow cards65
Red cards5
xG for (avg)0.18
xG against (avg)0.32
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)4/2

Rosario Central

Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets9
Failed to score6
Yellow cards76
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.74
xG against (avg)0.55
Corners for (avg)7.00
Penalties (scored/missed)3/1
Atletico TucumanRosario Central
Played
28
30
Goals scored (avg)
0.90
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
0.90
Clean sheets
11
9
Failed to score
9
6
Yellow cards
65
76
Red cards
5
2
xG for (avg)
0.18
0.74
xG against (avg)
0.32
0.55
Corners for (avg)
4.80
7.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/2
3/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Atletico Tucuman

2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
8
61-75
2
10
76-90
10
scored conceded

Rosario Central

1
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
9
31-45
9
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
4
9
76-90
12
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Liga Profesional predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws