Rosario Central vs Huracan

Rosario Central host Huracan at the Estadio Gigante de Arroyito on Sunday with the Clausura campaign at round 14, and the stakes are simple: the hosts can lean on home advantage to keep their strong run going, while Huracan arrive needing to prove their recent away form is more than a blip. The model makes Central clear favourites at 63.1 percent, with a confidence reading of 86.

What the numbers see is a home side in rhythm: form of WWDWW, recent expected goals of 1.88, and a match expected-goals figure of 1.729. Huracan's last five read LLWWW, and their recent expected goals sit at 1.12 against a match figure of 0.9921, so the attacking edge belongs firmly to Central. No injuries are listed on either side, which keeps the picture clean. The head-to-head is a warning, though: Huracan won the last meeting 3-1 and have taken three of the last five, including two 0-1 wins at this venue.

The tips follow the model's lean. Home win is priced at 1.63 against a 63.1 percent probability, and the 1X double chance lands at 76.5 percent. Both teams to score No carries 48 percent at 1.6, while Under 2.5 sits at 48.1 percent at 1.56. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 10.27 percent, with 2-0 at 9.86 and 2-1 at 9.78. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 at 55 percent with an expected 11.

The honest caveat is that the goals markets are close to coin-flips, and the H2H record shows Huracan have repeatedly upset this fixture. Treat the home win as the anchor and the unders as a lean, not a lock.