FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes

Sunday's regular-season round 31 fixture at Toyota Stadium pairs third against fourth in Major League Soccer, with FC Dallas on 51 points from 30 games and San Jose Earthquakes close behind on 48 from the same number of matches. With so little separating them this late in the campaign, the stakes are obvious: three points here shape the seedings for everything that follows.

The model leans toward the hosts. Dallas' recent form reads DWLWD, while San Jose arrive on a stubborn DDDWD, so neither side is running hot, but the underlying numbers favour Dallas: an expected-goals split of 1.9447 to 1.3027, backed by recent xG of 1.5 against 1.0. Both squads list lengthy injury absences, which tempers any read on team selection. The head-to-head record is wild and worth noting — 2-3, 2-2, 2-4, 3-2 and 2-1 across the last five meetings, every one of them decided by fine margins or producing goals.

The headline tip is a home win at 56.7% model probability against odds of 1.76, with confidence rated 84. Double chance 12 lands at 72.9% for those wanting cover. Both teams to score is priced at 1.47 with a 53.5% probability, and over 2.5 goals at 1.49 sits at just 48.3% — the model is notably cooler on that total than the market price implies, so the value may hide elsewhere. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9.62%, with 2-0 at 7.38%. Corners look interesting: an expected 12.1 against a 57.2% probability for over 9.5.

The honest caveat is the injury lists, which are long on both sides and could distort the xG picture, plus the fact that over 2.5 is a coin-flip the odds don't really reward.