San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β’ 02:30 UTC+3 β’ Round 30 β’ Avaya Stadium β’ βοΈ 24Β°C, 5 km/h clear
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away 2.08 β 1.97 βΌ5% | 78% | 39.5% | 1.97 | Dafabet | 50.9% | -11.4 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 68% | 67.5% | 1.26 | Betano | 76.3% | -8.8 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 50.1% | 1.50 | Bet365 | 63.4% | -13.3 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 47.2% | 1.53 | Bet365 | 63% | -15.8 pp |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 61% | 6% | 11.00 | Bet365 | 7.2% | -1.2 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 62% | 53.1% | 1.60 | Betfair | 58.4% | -5.3 pp |
β½ Model expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 1.40 β 0.91 Nashville SC Β· expected total 2.31
π§ Match Preview
San Jose Earthquakes host Nashville SC at Avaya Stadium in a Regular Season round 30 clash, with the home side sitting 4th on 47 points from 29 matches. The stakes are clear for a San Jose team protecting a strong table position, while Nashville arrive with momentum from a WWWDL run compared to the Earthquakes' DWDWW.
The model leans away. Nashville are tipped to win at 39.5 percent probability with odds of 1.97, and the double chance covering draw or away carries a 67.5 percent probability. Recent expected goals tell an interesting story: San Jose's home figure sits at 1.37 while Nashville's away number is a healthier 2.04, even though the raw home and away scoring estimates come in at 1.397 and 0.9137 respectively. Both teams to score is priced at 1.5 with a 50.1 percent probability, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 1.53 with 47.2 percent. The most likely correct score is 0-1 at 7.8 percent, followed by 1-2 at 5.79 and 0-2 at 4.14. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 is expected at 10 with 53.1 percent probability.
Where might value hide? The away win at 1.97 against a 39.5 percent model read is the headline, and the double chance at 67.5 percent looks the safer route. The caveat is real: both squads list extensive injury concerns, and Nashville carry several doubtful names including S. Mohammed, X. Valdez, S. Surridge and R. Baker-Whiting, so late team news could shift this picture before kickoff.
The model leans away. Nashville are tipped to win at 39.5 percent probability with odds of 1.97, and the double chance covering draw or away carries a 67.5 percent probability. Recent expected goals tell an interesting story: San Jose's home figure sits at 1.37 while Nashville's away number is a healthier 2.04, even though the raw home and away scoring estimates come in at 1.397 and 0.9137 respectively. Both teams to score is priced at 1.5 with a 50.1 percent probability, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 1.53 with 47.2 percent. The most likely correct score is 0-1 at 7.8 percent, followed by 1-2 at 5.79 and 0-2 at 4.14. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 is expected at 10 with 53.1 percent probability.
Where might value hide? The away win at 1.97 against a 39.5 percent model read is the headline, and the double chance at 67.5 percent looks the safer route. The caveat is real: both squads list extensive injury concerns, and Nashville carry several doubtful names including S. Mohammed, X. Valdez, S. Surridge and R. Baker-Whiting, so late team news could shift this picture before kickoff.
Updated 16 Oct 2026, 05:08 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes
Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)6
xG for (recent avg)1.37
xG against (recent avg)0.96
Elo strength rating1507
Players out18
Nashville SC
Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)1.65
xG against (recent avg)1.06
Elo strength rating1465
Players out14
San Jose EarthquakesNashville SC
Goals scored (season avg)
1.80
2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
0.80
Win streak (best this season)
6
5
xG for (recent avg)
1.37
1.65
xG against (recent avg)
0.96
1.06
Elo strength rating
1507
1465
Players out
18
14
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
San Jose Earthquakes
Unbeaten 7
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6
Nashville SC
Won 3 in a row
Unbeaten 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes
2nd best BTTS rate (83%)
Nashville SC
3rd best attack (2.10 goals/game)
Best defence (0.80 conceded/game)
Best clean sheets (13)
Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
San Jose Earthquakes at home Β· Nashville SC away β the split that matters for this fixture.
San Jose Earthquakes (home)
WinsβDrawsβLosses6Wβ3Dβ5L
W 6
D 3
L 5
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Nashville SC (away)
WinsβDrawsβLosses6Wβ5Dβ3L
W 6
D 5
L 3
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets7
Failed to score5
San Jose Earthquakes (home)Nashville SC (away)
W 6
D 3
L 5
W 6
D 5
L 3
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
0.70
Clean sheets
4
7
Failed to score
2
5
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Nashville SC 0 wins Β· 4 draws Β· San Jose Earthquakes 0 wins Β· avg 2 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 4
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr 2024 | Nashville SC | 1β1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Sep 2023 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1β1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 12 Jun 2022 | Nashville SC | 0β0 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Apr 2022 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2β2 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
π Recent Form
San Jose Earthquakes
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Colorado Rapids | Away | 1β1 | D |
| 27/09 | Portland Timbers | Home | 3β1 | W |
| 19/09 | Los Angeles FC | Home | 2β2 | D |
| 13/09 | Houston Dynamo | Home | 1β0 | W |
| 10/09 | San Diego | Away | 3β2 | W |
Nashville SC
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Austin | Away | 4β1 | W |
| 27/09 | Toronto FC | Home | 2β0 | W |
| 20/09 | Chicago Fire | Home | 3β0 | W |
| 12/09 | Inter Miami | Away | 2β2 | D |
| 09/09 | Toronto FC | Away | 1β2 | L |
π Season Comparison β Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes #4 Β· 47 pts β Nashville SC
San Jose Earthquakes
WinsβDrawsβLosses13Wβ8Dβ8L
W 13
D 8
L 8
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets7
Failed to score4
Yellow cards64
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.37
xG against (avg)0.96
Corners for (avg)6.80
Penalties (scored/missed)4/3
Nashville SC
Played28
Goals scored (avg)2.10
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets13
Failed to score5
Yellow cards50
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.65
xG against (avg)1.06
Corners for (avg)4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0
San Jose EarthquakesNashville SC
W 13
D 8
L 8
Played
29
28
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
2.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
0.80
Clean sheets
7
13
Failed to score
4
5
Yellow cards
64
50
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
1.37
1.65
xG against (avg)
0.96
1.06
Corners for (avg)
6.80
4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/3
3/0
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
San Jose Earthquakes
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Nashville SC
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
San Jose Earthquakes
- β E. Edwards β Lower-Body Injury
- β E. Mendoza β Lower-Body Injury
- β T. Werner β Inactive
- β D. Jones β Achilles Tendon Injury
- β Vitor Costa β Lower-Body Injury
- β N. Tsakiris β Injury
- β N. Adimabua β Lower-Body Injury
- β J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza β Lower-Body Injury
- β R. Roberts β Yellow Cards
- β R. Vieira β Lower-Body Injury
- β D. Johnson β Lower-Body Injury
- β B. Kikanovic β Yellow Cards
- β P. Judd β Yellow Cards
- β P. Marie β Injury
- β M. Floriani β Red Card
- β O. Bouda β International duty
- β A. Gunn β International duty
- β J. Skahan β Lower-Body Injury
Nashville SC
- β M. Corcoran β Red Card
- β C. Applewhite β Leg Injury
- β T. Williams β Injury
- β E. Tagseth β Injury
- β P. Yazbek β Injury
- β A. Najar β Thigh Injury
- β C. Espinoza β Lower-Body Injury
- β W. Madrigal β Lower-Body Injury
- β A. Muyl β Lower-Body Injury
- β J. Willis β Lower-Body Injury
- β A. Qasem β International duty
- β B. Schwake β International duty
- β F. Camara β Lower-Body Injury
- β O. Presthus β Lower-Body Injury
- β S. Mohammed (doubtful) β Inactive
- β X. Valdez (doubtful) β Illness
- β S. Surridge (doubtful) β Illness
- β R. Baker-Whiting (doubtful) β Injury
More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws