Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 00:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 29 β€’ Toyota Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 26Β°C, 10 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 48.5% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 38.5% Β· Edge +11.6 pp
Best odds 2.60 BetVictor 2.60Betfair 2.55Betano 2.47
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 4.3% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.7 β†’ 1.98 β–²16% 83% 52.9% 1.98 Dafabet 53% -0.1 pp
Double Chance 1X 73% 74.6% 1.32 Betano 76.8% -2.2 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 49.8% 1.50 Bet365 62.5% -12.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.2% 2.60 BetVictor 37.6% +11.6 pp
Correct Score 1-0 66% 8.9% 11.00 Bet365 6.3% +2.6 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.5 exp.) Over 9.5 65% 56.1% 1.52 Betano 61.4% -5.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: FC Dallas 1.56 – 0.97 Seattle Sounders Β· expected total 2.54

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

FC Dallas host Seattle Sounders at Toyota Stadium in a Regular Season round 29 clash that matters at both ends of the table. Dallas sit 3rd on 47 points from 28 games, while Seattle are 7th on 41 from the same number, so a home win strengthens the hosts' grip near the top and keeps the visitors in the playoff scrap.

The model leans toward Dallas. Their recent form reads WDWWW, Seattle's WWWDD, and the expected goals split is telling: Dallas carry a home figure of 1.5628 against Seattle's away 0.9744. Recent xG is closer, 1.55 for Dallas and 1.52 for Seattle, which is why the edge is real but not enormous. Both squads are heavily depleted, with long injury lists on either side, so squad rotation is a genuine factor.

The headline tip is a Home win at 52.9% probability with confidence 83, priced at 1.98. Double chance 1X lands at 74.6%, a safer route. Both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 49.8% and odds of 1.5, so the value sits against it. Under 2.5 goals is the model's call at 49.2% and odds of 2.6, which is where the price looks generous. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 11.17%, with 2-0 at 9.67% and 2-1 at 9.42%. Corners point over 9.5, expected 11.5 at 56.1%.

The honest caveat: the H2H record is ugly for Dallas, with Seattle winning four of the last five meetings, so back the home side with discipline rather than conviction.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

FC Dallas

Form (last 5)
WLos Angeles FC (H) 1–0 Β· 27/09/2026DAustin (H) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026WPortland Timbers (H) 2–1 Β· 13/09/2026WMinnesota United FC (A) 2–1 Β· 10/09/2026WSporting Kansas City (H) 4–3 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.26
xG against (recent avg)1.03
Elo strength rating1550
Players out11

Seattle Sounders

Form (last 5)
WSporting Kansas City (H) 2–1 Β· 02/10/2026WMinnesota United FC (H) 3–1 Β· 27/09/2026WReal Salt Lake (H) 2–0 Β· 24/09/2026DColorado Rapids (A) 3–3 Β· 20/09/2026DLos Angeles Galaxy (A) 1–1 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.07
xG against (recent avg)1.25
Elo strength rating1594
Players out18
FC DallasSeattle Sounders
Goals scored (season avg)
1.90
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
3
3
xG for (recent avg)
1.26
1.07
xG against (recent avg)
1.03
1.25
Elo strength rating
1550
1594
Players out
11
18

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

FC Dallas

Unbeaten 6
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Seattle Sounders

Won 3 in a row Unbeaten 8
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

FC Dallas at home Β· Seattle Sounders away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

FC Dallas (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–5D–2L
W 6
D 5
L 2
Played13
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3

Seattle Sounders (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–5D–5L
W 3
D 5
L 5
Played13
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
FC Dallas (home)Seattle Sounders (away)
W 6
D 5
L 2
W 3
D 5
L 5
Played
13
13
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.20
Clean sheets
3
4
Failed to score
3
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8.9%
2–0
7.7%
2–1
7.5%
3–0
4%
3–1
3.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

FC Dallas 1 win Β· 3 draws Β· Seattle Sounders 6 wins Β· avg 2.1 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

1
3
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
26 Apr 2026 Seattle Sounders 2–1 FC Dallas Major League Soccer
24 May 2025 Seattle Sounders 1–0 FC Dallas Major League Soccer
13 Apr 2025 FC Dallas 0–1 Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer
23 Jun 2024 Seattle Sounders 3–2 FC Dallas Major League Soccer
14 Apr 2024 FC Dallas 0–0 Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer
11 Nov 2023 Seattle Sounders 1–0 FC Dallas Major League Soccer
05 Nov 2023 FC Dallas 3–1 Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer
31 Oct 2023 Seattle Sounders 2–0 FC Dallas Major League Soccer
17 Sep 2023 FC Dallas 1–1 Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer
16 Jul 2023 Seattle Sounders 1–1 FC Dallas Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

FC Dallas

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
27/09 Los Angeles FC Home 1–0 W
20/09 Austin Home 0–0 D
13/09 Portland Timbers Home 2–1 W
10/09 Minnesota United FC Away 2–1 W
06/09 Sporting Kansas City Home 4–3 W

Seattle Sounders

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
02/10 Sporting Kansas City Home 2–1 W
27/09 Minnesota United FC Home 3–1 W
24/09 Real Salt Lake Home 2–0 W
20/09 Colorado Rapids Away 3–3 D
13/09 Los Angeles Galaxy Away 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

FC Dallas #3 Β· 47 pts β€”  Seattle Sounders #7 Β· 41 pts

FC Dallas

Wins–Draws–Losses13W–8D–7L
W 13
D 8
L 7
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets6
Failed to score7
Yellow cards64
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.26
xG against (avg)1.03
Corners for (avg)6.00
Penalties (scored/missed)5/0

Seattle Sounders

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–8D–9L
W 11
D 8
L 9
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets7
Failed to score6
Yellow cards46
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.07
xG against (avg)1.25
Corners for (avg)5.90
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
FC DallasSeattle Sounders
W 13
D 8
L 7
W 11
D 8
L 9
Played
28
28
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.30
Clean sheets
6
7
Failed to score
7
6
Yellow cards
64
46
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
1.26
1.07
xG against (avg)
1.03
1.25
Corners for (avg)
6.00
5.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
5/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

FC Dallas

6
0-15
7
7
16-30
9
10
31-45
12
6
46-60
5
8
61-75
3
5
76-90
14
scored conceded

Seattle Sounders

2
0-15
4
7
16-30
6
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
7
3
61-75
3
12
76-90
12
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

FC Dallas

  • ❌ Geovane Jesus β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ E. Newman β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ B. Kamungo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Ramiro β€” Injury
  • ❌ P. Musa β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ L. Deedson β€” International duty
  • ❌ O. Urhoghide β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ Daniel β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ P. Delgado β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ N. Norris β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ R. Binyamin β€” International duty
  • ❓ J. Sirois (doubtful) β€” Head Injury
  • ❓ A. A. Julio Santos (doubtful) β€” Leg Injury

Seattle Sounders

  • ❌ S. Hawkins β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kim Kee-Hee β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ R. Sailor β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ P. de La Vega β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Morris β€” Injury
  • ❌ H. Dotson β€” Concussion
  • ❌ Y. Gomez Andrade β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ N. Petkovic β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ C. Roldan β€” Concussion
  • ❌ A. Rusnak β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ A. Roldan β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ P. Arriola β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ J. Ragen β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ J. Ferreira β€” Injury
  • ❌ X. Gnaulati β€” Injury
  • ❌ P. Kingston β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ D. Joveljic β€” International duty
  • ❌ S. Brunell β€” International duty
  • ❓ G. Minoungou (doubtful) β€” Foot Injury
  • ❓ P. Rothrock (doubtful) β€” Foot Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws