Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β’ 00:30 UTC+3 β’ Round 30 β’ BBVA Compass Stadium β’ β 20.3Β°C, 8 km/h partly cloudy
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.15 β 2.23 β²4% | 78% | 39.8% | 2.23 | Dafabet | 44.6% | -4.8 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 69% | 68.9% | 1.30 | William Hill | 73.6% | -4.7 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 82% | 51.9% | 1.62 | William Hill | 57.6% | -5.7 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 50.4% | 1.82 | Pinnacle | 53.1% | -2.7 pp |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 62% | 6.7% | 9.25 | Betano | 4.9% | +1.8 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.4% | 1.75 | Betano | 54.5% | -2.1 pp |
β½ Model expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.41 β 1.28 FC Dallas Β· expected total 2.68
π§ Match Preview
Houston Dynamo host FC Dallas at BBVA Compass Stadium in a Texas derby with real table weight: the visitors sit 3rd on 50 points from 29 games, while Houston are 5th on 46 from the same number of matches. Form splits the room. Houston arrive on a DLDLW run, Dallas on LWDWW, and the recent expected goals back the visitors' edge β 1.55 for Dallas against 1.02 for Houston, though the season-long attacking numbers are far closer at 1.4051 and 1.2779.
The model leans home anyway: a 39.8 percent win probability at odds of 2.23, with the double chance priced at 68.9 percent. Both teams to score lands at 51.9 percent (1.62), Over 2.5 goals at 50.4 percent (1.82), and corners Over 9.5 at 52.4 percent against an expected 9.7. The favoured correct score is 2-1 at 6.7 percent, followed by 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 and 3-0. History is chaotic and high-scoring: a 4-3 Dallas win in March 2026, a 1-2 Houston success in February, 0-2 and 1-2 away wins, and a 2-2 draw.
Value likely hides in the goals markets rather than the outright, given both squads are heavily depleted β Houston list seventeen absentees or doubts including Artur and Antonio Carlos, Dallas fourteen including Ramiro and Geovane Jesus. The honest caveat: with so many missing bodies, lineups could shift these numbers sharply, and a 39.8 percent home probability is no more than a lean.
The model leans home anyway: a 39.8 percent win probability at odds of 2.23, with the double chance priced at 68.9 percent. Both teams to score lands at 51.9 percent (1.62), Over 2.5 goals at 50.4 percent (1.82), and corners Over 9.5 at 52.4 percent against an expected 9.7. The favoured correct score is 2-1 at 6.7 percent, followed by 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 and 3-0. History is chaotic and high-scoring: a 4-3 Dallas win in March 2026, a 1-2 Houston success in February, 0-2 and 1-2 away wins, and a 2-2 draw.
Value likely hides in the goals markets rather than the outright, given both squads are heavily depleted β Houston list seventeen absentees or doubts including Artur and Antonio Carlos, Dallas fourteen including Ramiro and Geovane Jesus. The honest caveat: with so many missing bodies, lineups could shift these numbers sharply, and a 39.8 percent home probability is no more than a lean.
Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
Houston Dynamo
Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)0.82
xG against (recent avg)1.46
Elo strength rating1385
Players out16
FC Dallas
Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.26
xG against (recent avg)1.03
Elo strength rating1565
Players out12
Houston DynamoFC Dallas
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
5
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.82
1.26
xG against (recent avg)
1.46
1.03
Elo strength rating
1385
1565
Players out
16
12
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Houston Dynamo
Winless 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6
FC Dallas
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Major League Soccer
Houston Dynamo
3rd best clean sheets (11)
FC Dallas
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
Houston Dynamo at home Β· FC Dallas away β the split that matters for this fixture.
Houston Dynamo (home)
WinsβDrawsβLosses8Wβ3Dβ3L
W 8
D 3
L 3
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets6
Failed to score4
FC Dallas (away)
WinsβDrawsβLosses7Wβ3Dβ5L
W 7
D 3
L 5
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets3
Failed to score4
Houston Dynamo (home)FC Dallas (away)
W 8
D 3
L 3
W 7
D 3
L 5
Played
14
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.80
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
1.70
Clean sheets
6
3
Failed to score
4
4
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
FC Dallas 3 wins Β· 4 draws Β· Houston Dynamo 3 wins Β· avg 2.7 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | FC Dallas | 4β3 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 11 Feb 2026 | FC Dallas | 1β2 | Houston Dynamo | Friendlies Clubs |
| 18 May 2025 | FC Dallas | 0β2 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Houston Dynamo | 1β2 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 07 Feb 2025 | FC Dallas | 2β2 | Houston Dynamo | Friendlies Clubs |
| 19 May 2024 | Houston Dynamo | 1β1 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 28 Apr 2024 | FC Dallas | 2β0 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 01 Oct 2023 | Houston Dynamo | 0β0 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 21 May 2023 | FC Dallas | 1β1 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 19 Feb 2023 | Houston Dynamo | 2β0 | FC Dallas | Friendlies Clubs |
π Recent Form
Houston Dynamo
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Minnesota United FC | Away | 2β2 | D |
| 27/09 | Sporting Kansas City | Home | 0β2 | L |
| 20/09 | FC Cincinnati | Home | 2β2 | D |
| 13/09 | San Jose Earthquakes | Away | 0β1 | L |
| 10/09 | Real Salt Lake | Home | 2β1 | W |
FC Dallas
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Charlotte | Away | 2β3 | L |
| 27/09 | Los Angeles FC | Home | 1β0 | W |
| 20/09 | Austin | Home | 0β0 | D |
| 13/09 | Portland Timbers | Home | 2β1 | W |
| 10/09 | Minnesota United FC | Away | 2β1 | W |
π Season Comparison β Major League Soccer
Houston Dynamo #5 Β· 46 pts β FC Dallas #3 Β· 50 pts
Houston Dynamo
WinsβDrawsβLosses13Wβ7Dβ9L
W 13
D 7
L 9
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets11
Failed to score8
Yellow cards51
Red cards7
xG for (avg)0.82
xG against (avg)1.46
Corners for (avg)3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
FC Dallas
WinsβDrawsβLosses14Wβ8Dβ7L
W 14
D 8
L 7
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets6
Failed to score7
Yellow cards65
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.26
xG against (avg)1.03
Corners for (avg)6.00
Penalties (scored/missed)5/0
Houston DynamoFC Dallas
W 13
D 7
L 9
W 14
D 8
L 7
Played
29
29
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.60
Clean sheets
11
6
Failed to score
8
7
Yellow cards
51
65
Red cards
7
0
xG for (avg)
0.82
1.26
xG against (avg)
1.46
1.03
Corners for (avg)
3.60
6.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
5/0
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Houston Dynamo
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
FC Dallas
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Houston Dynamo
- β Artur β Knee Injury
- β R. Miller β Lower-Body Injury
- β N. Quinones β Lower-Body Injury
- β Antonio Carlos β Red Card
- β A. Bouzat β Red Card
- β Lucas Halter β Lower-Body Injury
- β N. Markanich β Red Card
- β E. Sviatchenko β Red Card
- β J. McGlynn β Lower-Body Injury
- β O. Lingr β Red Card
- β J. Maurer β Concussion
- β S. Vines β Lower-Body Injury
- β M. Saracchi β Lower-Body Injury
- β L. Foster β Inactive
- β A. Resch β Lower-Body Injury
- β H. Herrera β Red Card
- β Felipe Andrade (doubtful) β Thigh Injury
FC Dallas
- β Geovane Jesus β Knee Injury
- β E. Newman β Knee Injury
- β B. Kamungo β Injury
- β Ramiro β Injury
- β P. Musa β Lower-Body Injury
- β L. Deedson β International duty
- β O. Urhoghide β Lower-Body Injury
- β Daniel β Hamstring Injury
- β P. Delgado β Leg Injury
- β N. Norris β Yellow Cards
- β R. Binyamin β International duty
- β L. Farrington β Lower-Body Injury
- β J. Sirois (doubtful) β Head Injury
- β A. A. Julio Santos (doubtful) β Leg Injury
More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws