CF Montreal vs Nashville SC
Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β’ 17:30 UTC+3 β’ Round 31 β’ Saputo Stadium β’ β 8.4Β°C, 9 km/h partly cloudy
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 76% | 35.3% | β | β | β | β |
| Double Chance | X2 | 69% | 68.8% | β | β | β | β |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 49.1% | β | β | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81% | 48.7% | β | β | β | β |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 68% | 10.1% | β | β | β | β |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.4 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 64% | 54.7% | β | β | β | β |
β½ Model expected goals: CF Montreal 0.96 β 1.19 Nashville SC Β· expected total 2.15
π§ Match Preview
CF Montreal host Nashville SC at Saputo Stadium in a Regular Season round 31 clash that carries real weight for the visitors' playoff push. Nashville arrive on a WWWDL run and, on recent expected goals, look the sharper side at 2.04 compared to Montreal's 0.85. The model's goal projections lean the same way, with the away side at 1.1852 and the home team at 0.9634, which explains why the headline pick is an Away win at 35.3 percent with a confidence reading of 76. Montreal's LWLWL form offers little comfort, and the injury list is brutal, with S. Ibrahim doubtful among a long absentee group. Nashville also carry doubts, including S. Surridge, X. Valdez and S. Mohammed, so team news matters.
The safest angle looks like Double Chance X2 at 68.8 percent, covering the draw and away win. For goals, Under 2.5 lands at 48.7 percent and BTTS Yes at 49.1 percent, both essentially coin-flips, so the value may sit in the correct score market where 0-1 is priced at 12.5 percent and 0-2 at 8.2 percent. Corners point Under 9.5 at 54.7 percent, with an expected 8.4. The honest caveat: 35.3 percent is not a dominant away probability, and Montreal's home ground plus Nashville's four doubtful names mean the X2 is the more defensible play than a straight away win.
The safest angle looks like Double Chance X2 at 68.8 percent, covering the draw and away win. For goals, Under 2.5 lands at 48.7 percent and BTTS Yes at 49.1 percent, both essentially coin-flips, so the value may sit in the correct score market where 0-1 is priced at 12.5 percent and 0-2 at 8.2 percent. Corners point Under 9.5 at 54.7 percent, with an expected 8.4. The honest caveat: 35.3 percent is not a dominant away probability, and Montreal's home ground plus Nashville's four doubtful names mean the X2 is the more defensible play than a straight away win.
Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
CF Montreal
Form (last 5)
LToronto FC (A) 1β2 Β· 10/10/2026WFC Cincinnati (H) 3β1 Β· 26/09/2026LColumbus Crew (H) 0β2 Β· 19/09/2026WVancouver Whitecaps (H) 2β1 Β· 16/09/2026LColorado Rapids (A) 0β1 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.85
xG against (recent avg)1.66
Elo strength rating1234
Players out21
Nashville SC
Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)1.65
xG against (recent avg)1.06
Elo strength rating1465
Players out14
CF MontrealNashville SC
LToronto FC (A) 1β2 Β· 10/10/2026WFC Cincinnati (H) 3β1 Β· 26/09/2026LColumbus Crew (H) 0β2 Β· 19/09/2026WVancouver Whitecaps (H) 2β1 Β· 16/09/2026LColorado Rapids (A) 0β1 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.00
0.80
Win streak (best this season)
2
5
xG for (recent avg)
0.85
1.65
xG against (recent avg)
1.66
1.06
Elo strength rating
1234
1465
Players out
21
14
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
CF Montreal
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6
Nashville SC
Won 3 in a row
Unbeaten 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Major League Soccer
CF Montreal
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Nashville SC
3rd best attack (2.10 goals/game)
Best defence (0.80 conceded/game)
Best clean sheets (13)
Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
CF Montreal at home Β· Nashville SC away β the split that matters for this fixture.
CF Montreal (home)
WinsβDrawsβLosses4Wβ5Dβ5L
W 4
D 5
L 5
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets3
Failed to score4
Nashville SC (away)
WinsβDrawsβLosses6Wβ5Dβ3L
W 6
D 5
L 3
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets7
Failed to score5
CF Montreal (home)Nashville SC (away)
W 4
D 5
L 5
W 6
D 5
L 3
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
0.70
Clean sheets
3
7
Failed to score
4
5
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
CF Montreal 1 win Β· 3 draws Β· Nashville SC 6 wins Β· avg 2 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | Nashville SC | 1β0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 04 Oct 2025 | CF Montreal | 1β1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Mar 2025 | Nashville SC | 3β0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 25 May 2024 | CF Montreal | 0β0 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 05 May 2024 | Nashville SC | 4β1 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 21 Jun 2023 | CF Montreal | 1β0 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 12 Mar 2023 | Nashville SC | 2β0 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 19 May 2022 | Nashville SC | 2β1 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 12 Sep 2021 | CF Montreal | 0β1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 27 Jun 2021 | Nashville SC | 1β1 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
π Recent Form
CF Montreal
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Toronto FC | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 26/09 | FC Cincinnati | Home | 3β1 | W |
| 19/09 | Columbus Crew | Home | 0β2 | L |
| 16/09 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Home | 2β1 | W |
| 13/09 | Colorado Rapids | Away | 0β1 | L |
Nashville SC
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Austin | Away | 4β1 | W |
| 27/09 | Toronto FC | Home | 2β0 | W |
| 20/09 | Chicago Fire | Home | 3β0 | W |
| 12/09 | Inter Miami | Away | 2β2 | D |
| 09/09 | Toronto FC | Away | 1β2 | L |
π Season Comparison β Major League Soccer
CF Montreal
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets4
Failed to score10
Yellow cards60
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.85
xG against (avg)1.66
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)7/1
Nashville SC
Played28
Goals scored (avg)2.10
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets13
Failed to score5
Yellow cards50
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.65
xG against (avg)1.06
Corners for (avg)4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0
CF MontrealNashville SC
Played
28
28
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
2.10
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
0.80
Clean sheets
4
13
Failed to score
10
5
Yellow cards
60
50
Red cards
2
1
xG for (avg)
0.85
1.65
xG against (avg)
1.66
1.06
Corners for (avg)
4.50
4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
7/1
3/0
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
CF Montreal
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Nashville SC
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
CF Montreal
- β F. Herbers β Ankle Injury
- β T. Aviles β Red Card
- β B. Hidalgo β Inactive
- β B. Vera β Injury
- β J. Nteziryayo β Lower-Body Injury
- β N. Streit β Illness
- β W. Carmona β Injury
- β G. Synchuk β Injury
- β P. Owusu β Yellow Cards
- β T. Gillier β Concussion
- β F. Amaya β Lower-Body Injury
- β B. Ceballos β Inactive
- β E. Morales β Toe Injury
- β A. Sanchez β Inactive
- β D. Pereira β Lower-Body Injury
- β J. Neal β Concussion
- β M. Longstaff β Yellow Cards
- β O. Escobar β International duty
- β S. Piette β Yellow Cards
- β V. Radojevic β International duty
- β D. Sealy β International duty
- β S. Ibrahim (doubtful) β Injury
Nashville SC
- β M. Corcoran β Red Card
- β C. Applewhite β Leg Injury
- β T. Williams β Injury
- β E. Tagseth β Injury
- β P. Yazbek β Injury
- β A. Najar β Thigh Injury
- β C. Espinoza β Lower-Body Injury
- β W. Madrigal β Lower-Body Injury
- β A. Muyl β Lower-Body Injury
- β J. Willis β Lower-Body Injury
- β A. Qasem β International duty
- β B. Schwake β International duty
- β F. Camara β Lower-Body Injury
- β O. Presthus β Lower-Body Injury
- β S. Mohammed (doubtful) β Inactive
- β X. Valdez (doubtful) β Illness
- β S. Surridge (doubtful) β Illness
- β R. Baker-Whiting (doubtful) β Injury
More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws