Portland Timbers vs Charlotte
Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 β’ 02:30 UTC+3 β’ Round 31 β’ Providence Park β’ β 13.1Β°C, 2 km/h partly cloudy
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 79% | 44.2% | 1.96 | Pinnacle | 50.1% | -5.9 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 67% | 65.8% | 1.32 | Marathonbet | 72.1% | -6.3 pp |
| BTTS | No | 80% | 47.2% | 3.20 | BetVictor | 29.4% | +17.8 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81% | 49.2% | 3.25 | BetVictor | 29.5% | +19.7 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 66% | 9.3% | 15.00 | William Hill | 4.6% | +4.7 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 64% | 55.1% | β | β | β | β |
β½ Model expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.13 β 1.04 Charlotte Β· expected total 2.17
π§ Match Preview
The model sees a low-scoring, tightly matched game. Portland's recent form reads DLDLL, Charlotte's LWLWD, and the expected goals are almost identical: 1.1332 for Portland against 1.0375 for Charlotte, though recent xG leans slightly to the visitors (1.19 home versus 1.53 away). Both squads are heavily depleted, with long injury lists on either side, which helps explain the cautious goal projection. Head-to-head history offers little comfort to the hosts: Charlotte won both of the last two meetings 2-0.
The headline tip is a home win at 44.2% model probability against bookmaker odds of 1.96, with confidence rated 79. The safer angle is the double chance 1X at 65.8%. The model leans Under 2.5 goals at 49.2% (odds 3.25) and No on both teams to score at 47.2% (odds 3.2), while the most likely correct score is 1-0 at 11.59%. Corners look the most comfortable play: Over 9.5 is tipped at 55.1% with an expected 11.
The honest caveat is that 44.2% is not a dominant home probability, and Portland's DLDLL run plus Charlotte's recent 2-0 head-to-head edge mean the 1.96 price carries real risk. Treat the home win as a lean, not a banker.
Updated 19 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
Portland Timbers
Charlotte
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Portland Timbers
Charlotte
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Major League Soccer
Portland Timbers
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Charlotte
Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
Portland Timbers at home Β· Charlotte away β the split that matters for this fixture.
Portland Timbers (home)
Charlotte (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Charlotte 2 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Portland Timbers 0 wins Β· avg 2 goals Β· BTTS in 0 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2025 | Charlotte | 2β0 | Portland Timbers | Friendlies Clubs |
| 04 May 2024 | Charlotte | 2β0 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
π Recent Form
Portland Timbers
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Colorado Rapids | Home | 0β0 | D |
| 15/10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Away | 0β2 | L |
| 11/10 | Sporting Kansas City | Away | 3β3 | D |
| 27/09 | San Jose Earthquakes | Away | 1β3 | L |
| 20/09 | Atlanta United FC | Home | 0β1 | L |
Charlotte
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Columbus Crew | Away | 1β3 | L |
| 10/10 | FC Dallas | Home | 3β2 | W |
| 26/09 | Chicago Fire | Home | 0β1 | L |
| 19/09 | DC United | Away | 2β1 | W |
| 12/09 | FC Cincinnati | Away | 3β3 | D |
π Season Comparison β Major League Soccer
Portland Timbers #11 Β· 34 pts β Charlotte
Portland Timbers
Charlotte
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Portland Timbers
Charlotte
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Portland Timbers
- β D. Da Costa β Shoulder Injury
- β O. Fernandez β Foot Injury
- β Z. McGraw β Back Injury
- β J. Mosquera β Red Card
- β J. Fory β Red Card
- β J. Caicedo β Inactive
- β K. Miller β Red Card
- β G. Guerra β Abdominal strain
- β K. Velde β Personal Reasons
- β A. Aravena β Hip Injury
- β V. Janssen β Inactive
- β I. Smith β Ankle Injury
- β B. Bye β Leg Injury
- β T. Muse β Wrist Injury
- β K. Kelsy β Foot Injury
- β F. Surman β Knee Injury
- β J. Waterman β Yellow Cards
- β H. Sulte β Lower-Body Injury
- β Antony β Knee Injury
- β A. Bonetig (doubtful) β Lower-Body Injury
- β D. Chara (doubtful) β Lower-Body Injury
- β C. Bassett (doubtful) β Injury
Charlotte
- β H. Kessler β Lower-Body Injury
- β L. de la Torre β Concussion
- β W. Zaha β Yellow Cards
- β T. Ream β Muscle Injury
- β H. Toffolo β Hamstring Injury
- β A. Westwood β Yellow Cards
- β N. Byrne β Muscle Injury
- β A. Saint-Maximin β Inactive
- β D. Schnegg β Red Card
- β N. Berchimas β International duty
- β A. John β Upper-Body Injury
- β A. Johnson β Injury
- β A. Goodwin β Injury
- β L. Abada β International duty
- β R. Aloko β International duty
- β I. Toklomati β International duty
- β A. Doucoure β Inactive
More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws