Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 • 02:30 UTC+3 • Round 29 • Dignity Health Sports Park • ☀️ 8.3°C, 6 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home 1.9 → 2.11 ▲11%	80%	47.1%	2.11	Dafabet	47.5%	-0.4 pp
Double Chance	1X	72%	73.3%	1.37	Betano	71%	+2.3 pp
BTTS	Yes	84%	54.3%	1.40	William Hill	68.9%	-14.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	81%	50.1%	1.40	Bet365	68.9%	-18.8 pp
Correct Score	1-0	64%	7.8%	15.00	Bet365	5.3%	+2.5 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.7 exp.)	Over 9.5	63%	54.6%	1.60	Betano	58.4%	-3.8 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Los Angeles Galaxy 1.63 – 1.07 Portland Timbers · expected total 2.70

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Los Angeles Galaxy host Portland Timbers at Dignity Health Sports Park in a Regular Season Round 29 clash that matters more for pride than the playoff picture, with the Galaxy sitting 9th on 36 points from 29 games and Portland 10th on 33 points from 28. The model leans toward the home side, giving the Galaxy a 47.1 percent win probability at odds of 2.11, with a double chance on 1X rated at 73.3 percent.

Form supports the hosts: the Galaxy arrive with LWWDL from their last five, while Portland are winless across their recent stretch at DLLLD. The expected goals picture is tighter than the table suggests, with the home side at 1.6289 and the visitors at 1.0677, though recent xG readings of 1.72 and 1.66 hint at a more open contest than the season-long numbers imply. Both squads are heavily depleted, with the Galaxy missing a long list including R. Puig, Gabriel Pec and J. Paintsil, and Portland without D. Da Costa and Z. McGraw among many others.

Beyond the match result, the model likes both teams to score at 54.3 percent (odds 1.4) and Over 2.5 goals at 50.1 percent (odds 1.4), while corners Over 9.5 carries a 54.6 percent probability against an expected 10.7. The correct score leans toward 1-0 at 7.8 percent, with 2-1 and 2-0 close behind. The honest caveat: with so many absentees on both sides, form and xG carry less weight than usual, and the 2.11 home price offers only thin value against a 47.1 percent model read.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Los Angeles Galaxy

Form (last 5)

LSt. Louis City (A) 2–6 · 11/10/2026 WColorado Rapids (H) 3–2 · 27/09/2026 WMinnesota United FC (A) 3–2 · 20/09/2026 DSeattle Sounders (H) 1–1 · 13/09/2026 LVancouver Whitecaps (A) 0–3 · 10/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.70

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.39

xG against (recent avg)1.82

Elo strength rating1377

Players out21

Portland Timbers

Form (last 5)

DSporting Kansas City (A) 3–3 · 11/10/2026 LSan Jose Earthquakes (A) 1–3 · 27/09/2026 LAtlanta United FC (H) 0–1 · 20/09/2026 LFC Dallas (A) 1–2 · 13/09/2026 DSt. Louis City (H) 2–2 · 10/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)1.90

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.66

xG against (recent avg)1.45

Elo strength rating1439

Players out18

Los Angeles GalaxyPortland Timbers

Goals scored (season avg)

1.30

1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.70

1.90

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.39

1.66

xG against (recent avg)

1.82

1.45

Elo strength rating

1377

1439

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Los Angeles Galaxy

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Portland Timbers

Winless 5

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Major League Soccer

Los Angeles Galaxy

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Portland Timbers

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd worst clean sheets (1)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Los Angeles Galaxy at home · Portland Timbers away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Los Angeles Galaxy (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–5D–4L

W 5

D 5

L 4

Played14

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets3

Failed to score2

Portland Timbers (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–9L

W 2

D 3

L 9

Played14

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)2.10

Clean sheets0

Failed to score4

Los Angeles Galaxy (home)Portland Timbers (away)

W 5

D 5

L 4

W 2

D 3

L 9

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.30

1.40

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

2.10

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

7.8%

2–1

7.6%

2–0

7.1%

3–1

4.1%

3–0

3.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Los Angeles Galaxy 2 wins · 5 draws · Portland Timbers 3 wins · avg 3.5 goals · BTTS in 8 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
22 Mar 2026	Portland Timbers	1–1	Los Angeles Galaxy	Major League Soccer
23 Jan 2026	Los Angeles Galaxy	1–0	Portland Timbers	Friendlies Clubs
28 Apr 2025	Los Angeles Galaxy	2–4	Portland Timbers	Major League Soccer
16 Mar 2025	Portland Timbers	1–1	Los Angeles Galaxy	Major League Soccer
19 Sep 2024	Portland Timbers	4–2	Los Angeles Galaxy	Major League Soccer
21 Jul 2024	Los Angeles Galaxy	3–2	Portland Timbers	Major League Soccer
01 Oct 2023	Los Angeles Galaxy	3–3	Portland Timbers	Major League Soccer
25 Mar 2023	Portland Timbers	0–0	Los Angeles Galaxy	Major League Soccer
12 Feb 2023	Los Angeles Galaxy	1–4	Portland Timbers	Friendlies Clubs
18 Jun 2022	Los Angeles Galaxy	1–1	Portland Timbers	Major League Soccer

📈 Recent Form

Los Angeles Galaxy

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	St. Louis City	Away	2–6	L
27/09	Colorado Rapids	Home	3–2	W
20/09	Minnesota United FC	Away	3–2	W
13/09	Seattle Sounders	Home	1–1	D
10/09	Vancouver Whitecaps	Away	0–3	L

Portland Timbers

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Sporting Kansas City	Away	3–3	D
27/09	San Jose Earthquakes	Away	1–3	L
20/09	Atlanta United FC	Home	0–1	L
13/09	FC Dallas	Away	1–2	L
10/09	St. Louis City	Home	2–2	D

📊 Season Comparison — Major League Soccer

Los Angeles Galaxy #9 · 36 pts — Portland Timbers #10 · 33 pts

Los Angeles Galaxy

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–9D–11L

W 9

D 9

L 11

Played29

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.70

Clean sheets4

Failed to score4

Yellow cards62

Red cards6

xG for (avg)1.39

xG against (avg)1.82

Corners for (avg)6.10

Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

Portland Timbers

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–6D–13L

W 9

D 6

L 13

Played28

Goals scored (avg)1.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.90

Clean sheets1

Failed to score5

Yellow cards45

Red cards3

xG for (avg)1.66

xG against (avg)1.45

Corners for (avg)5.70

Penalties (scored/missed)3/1

Los Angeles GalaxyPortland Timbers

W 9

D 9

L 11

W 9

D 6

L 13

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.30

1.80

Goals conceded (avg)

1.70

1.90

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.39

1.66

xG against (avg)

1.82

1.45

Corners for (avg)

6.10

5.70

Penalties (scored/missed)

3/0

3/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Los Angeles Galaxy

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Portland Timbers

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Los Angeles Galaxy

❌ E. Cerrillo — Red Card
❌ I. Parente — Inactive
❌ R. Puig — Knee Injury
❌ C. Rindov — Injury
❌ E. Thommy — Injury
❌ C. Garces — Red Card
❌ Gabriel Pec — Red Card
❌ J. Paintsil — Hamstring Injury
❌ J. Glesnes — Calf Injury
❌ Matheus Nascimento — Injury
❌ Joao Klauss — Foot Injury
❌ J. Aude — Ankle Injury
❌ M. Yoshida — Knee Injury
❌ R. Ramos — International duty
❌ M. Yamane — Hip Injury
❌ R. Dalgado — Injury
❌ M. Reus — Inactive
❌ L. Sanabria — Red Card
❌ J. Marcinkowski — Red Card
❌ S. Roberto — Shoulder Injury
❌ H. Lozano — International duty
❓ E. Wynder (doubtful) — Injury

Portland Timbers

❌ D. Da Costa — Shoulder Injury
❌ O. Fernandez — Foot Injury
❌ Z. McGraw — Back Injury
❌ J. Mosquera — Red Card
❌ J. Fory — Red Card
❌ J. Caicedo — Inactive
❌ K. Miller — Red Card
❌ G. Guerra — Abdominal strain
❌ K. Velde — Personal Reasons
❌ A. Aravena — Hip Injury
❌ V. Janssen — Inactive
❌ I. Smith — Ankle Injury
❌ B. Bye — Leg Injury
❌ T. Muse — Wrist Injury
❌ K. Kelsy — Foot Injury
❌ F. Surman — Knee Injury
❌ J. Waterman — Yellow Cards
❌ H. Sulte — Lower-Body Injury
❓ A. Bonetig (doubtful) — Lower-Body Injury
❓ D. Chara (doubtful) — Lower-Body Injury
❓ C. Bassett (doubtful) — Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws