New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β’ 21:30 UTC+3 β’ Round 31 β’ Sports Illustrated Stadium β’ βοΈ 14.1Β°C, 4 km/h clear
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 79% | 42.6% | β | β | β | β |
| Double Chance | 12 | 72% | 72.5% | β | β | β | β |
| BTTS | Yes | 85% | 57% | β | β | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 55.5% | β | β | β | β |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 62% | 7.1% | β | β | β | β |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.5% | β | β | β | β |
β½ Model expected goals: New York Red Bulls 1.85 β 1.50 Inter Miami Β· expected total 3.35
π§ Match Preview
Sunday's Regular Season round 31 clash at Sports Illustrated Stadium pits the New York Red Bulls against Inter Miami, and the model leans toward the hosts despite the visitors' star power. The Red Bulls' recent form reads WLWWL, while Inter Miami arrive with WLDWD β patchy enough to keep this one open.
What the model sees is a home side creating the better chances: expected goals sit at 1.8496 for New York against 1.5036 for Miami, though recent xG tells a different story, with the hosts at 1.23 and Miami at 1.57. The head-to-head history is wild β a 2-2 draw in April 2026, a 1-5 Miami win in July 2025, a 4-1 Miami win in May 2025, a 6-2 Miami rout in May 2024, and a 4-0 Red Bulls win in March 2024. Both injury lists are long, with the hosts listing R. Donkor and D. Nealis as doubtful.
The headline tip is a Home win at 42.6 percent with confidence of 79. Double chance 12 lands at 72.5 percent, both teams to score Yes at 57 percent, and Over 2.5 goals at 55.5 percent. The model's top correct score is 2-1 at 7.1 percent, with 2-0 at 6.01 and 3-1 at 5.57 close behind. Corners offer Over 9.5 at 52.5 percent against an expected 9.7.
The honest caveat: those recent xG numbers favour Miami, and the H2H record shows the Red Bulls have been blown away more than once. Treat the home tip as a lean, not a lock.
What the model sees is a home side creating the better chances: expected goals sit at 1.8496 for New York against 1.5036 for Miami, though recent xG tells a different story, with the hosts at 1.23 and Miami at 1.57. The head-to-head history is wild β a 2-2 draw in April 2026, a 1-5 Miami win in July 2025, a 4-1 Miami win in May 2025, a 6-2 Miami rout in May 2024, and a 4-0 Red Bulls win in March 2024. Both injury lists are long, with the hosts listing R. Donkor and D. Nealis as doubtful.
The headline tip is a Home win at 42.6 percent with confidence of 79. Double chance 12 lands at 72.5 percent, both teams to score Yes at 57 percent, and Over 2.5 goals at 55.5 percent. The model's top correct score is 2-1 at 7.1 percent, with 2-0 at 6.01 and 3-1 at 5.57 close behind. Corners offer Over 9.5 at 52.5 percent against an expected 9.7.
The honest caveat: those recent xG numbers favour Miami, and the H2H record shows the Red Bulls have been blown away more than once. Treat the home tip as a lean, not a lock.
Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
New York Red Bulls
Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.23
xG against (recent avg)1.94
Elo strength rating1368
Players out17
Inter Miami
Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)6
xG for (recent avg)0.96
xG against (recent avg)1.26
Elo strength rating1406
Players out23
New York Red BullsInter Miami
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.90
1.80
Win streak (best this season)
2
6
xG for (recent avg)
1.23
0.96
xG against (recent avg)
1.94
1.26
Elo strength rating
1368
1406
Players out
17
23
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
New York Red Bulls
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
3/6
Inter Miami
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Major League Soccer
New York Red Bulls
Worst BTTS rate (17%)
Worst Over 2.5 rate (33%)
Inter Miami
Best attack (2.40 goals/game)
Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
New York Red Bulls at home Β· Inter Miami away β the split that matters for this fixture.
New York Red Bulls (home)
WinsβDrawsβLosses5Wβ3Dβ6L
W 5
D 3
L 6
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets1
Failed to score5
Inter Miami (away)
WinsβDrawsβLosses8Wβ3Dβ3L
W 8
D 3
L 3
Played14
Goals scored (avg)2.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2
New York Red Bulls (home)Inter Miami (away)
W 5
D 3
L 6
W 8
D 3
L 3
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
2.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
1.70
Clean sheets
1
3
Failed to score
5
2
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Inter Miami 5 wins Β· 1 draw Β· New York Red Bulls 4 wins Β· avg 3.7 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Inter Miami | 2β2 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 19 Jul 2025 | New York Red Bulls | 1β5 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 03 May 2025 | Inter Miami | 4β1 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 04 May 2024 | Inter Miami | 6β2 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 23 Mar 2024 | New York Red Bulls | 4β0 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 26 Aug 2023 | New York Red Bulls | 0β2 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 31 May 2023 | Inter Miami | 0β1 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 27 Aug 2022 | New York Red Bulls | 3β1 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 22 May 2022 | Inter Miami | 2β0 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 09 Oct 2021 | New York Red Bulls | 1β0 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
π Recent Form
New York Red Bulls
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | San Diego | Home | 4β1 | W |
| 30/09 | St. Louis City | Home | 0β3 | L |
| 18/09 | New York City FC | Away | 1β0 | W |
| 12/09 | Columbus Crew | Away | 1β0 | W |
| 10/09 | Los Angeles FC | Away | 0β2 | L |
Inter Miami
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | DC United | Home | 4β0 | W |
| 27/09 | Columbus Crew | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 20/09 | San Diego | Home | 2β2 | D |
| 17/09 | Cruz Azul | Home | 2β0 | W |
| 12/09 | Nashville SC | Home | 2β2 | D |
π Season Comparison β Major League Soccer
New York Red Bulls
Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets4
Failed to score8
Yellow cards58
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.23
xG against (avg)1.94
Corners for (avg)4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Inter Miami
Played28
Goals scored (avg)2.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets5
Failed to score2
Yellow cards76
Red cards3
xG for (avg)0.96
xG against (avg)1.26
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)3/1
New York Red BullsInter Miami
Played
28
28
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
2.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
1.80
Clean sheets
4
5
Failed to score
8
2
Yellow cards
58
76
Red cards
2
3
xG for (avg)
1.23
0.96
xG against (avg)
1.94
1.26
Corners for (avg)
4.90
4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
3/1
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
New York Red Bulls
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Inter Miami
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
New York Red Bulls
- β C. Harper β Knee Injury
- β A. Marcucci β Knee Injury
- β M. Sofo β Ankle Injury
- β J. Che β Hamstring Injury
- β G. Berggren β Red Card
- β E. M. Choupo-Moting β Knee Injury
- β M. Dos Santos β Calf Injury
- β E. Forsberg β Hip Injury
- β R. Mosquera β Thigh Injury
- β A. Mehmeti β Red Card
- β J. Ruvalcaba β Yellow Cards
- β O. Valencia β Yellow Cards
- β E. Lomdono β Injury
- β J. Marshall-Rutty β Injury
- β J. Hall β International duty
- β M. Jimenez β International duty
- β D. Ruiz β International duty
- β R. Donkor (doubtful) β Knee Injury
- β D. Nealis (doubtful) β Ankle Injury
Inter Miami
- β S. Reguilon β Injury
- β L. Suarez β Leg Injury
- β M. Falcon β Knee Injury
- β R. de Paul β Leg Injury
- β T. Allende β Hamstring Injury
- β D. Ayala β Groin Injury
- β Y. Bright β Red Card
- β M. Silvetti β Foot Injury
- β T. Segovia β Yellow Cards
- β I. Fray β Injury
- β N. Allen β Muscle Injury
- β G. Lujan β Calf Injury
- β L. Messi β Rest
- β S. Morales β International duty
- β G. Berterame β Concussion
- β A. Shaw β International duty
- β Micael β Injury
- β T. Hall β Injury
- β F. Mura β Ankle Injury
- β F. Caicedo β International duty
- β L. Delinois β International duty
- β M. Galarza β International duty
- β D. St.Clair β International duty
More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws