Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 23:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 31 β€’ Mercedes-Benz Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 17.6Β°C, 16 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 43.6% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 36.4% Β· Edge +11.5 pp
Best odds 2.75 BetVictor 2.75Pinnacle 2.72Marathonbet 2.62
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 2.8% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Draw 3.77 β†’ 3.79 β–²1% 57% 26.6% 3.79 Pinnacle 24.4% +2.2 pp
Double Chance 1X 70% 70.8% 1.44 William Hill 64.5% +6.3 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 49.4% 1.40 William Hill 67.3% -17.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 79% 46.2% 2.75 BetVictor 34.7% +11.5 pp
Correct Score 1-1 70% 11.4% 8.00 BetVictor 8.6% +2.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.1 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 52.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Atlanta United FC 1.43 – 1.04 Chicago Fire Β· expected total 2.47

🧠 Match Preview

Atlanta United host Chicago Fire at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Round 31 of the MLS regular season, and with the campaign winding down, every point carries real weight for two sides whose recent form tells very different stories.

The model leans toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Atlanta's recent expected goals sit at 1.53 against Chicago's 1.62, yet the match-level projections are more conservative: 1.4267 for the home side and 1.0446 for the visitors. Form reads LWLDW for Atlanta and LLWWW for Chicago, so the away side arrives with momentum even if the underlying numbers don't fully back a comfortable win. Both squads list lengthy injury concerns, with Sergio Santos and F. Picault doubtful for Atlanta and J. Bamba, J. Shokalook, H. Cuypers and C. Mueller doubtful for Chicago. The head-to-head is mixed: Chicago won 1-0 in April 2026, Atlanta drew 2-2 in July 2025 and won 3-0 in March 2024.

The headline tip is a draw at 26.6 percent, priced at 3.79, with confidence at 57. Double chance 1X carries 70.8 percent and looks the safer anchor. Both teams to score is called Yes at 49.4 percent (odds 1.4), while Under 2.5 goals sits at 46.2 percent (odds 2.75). The correct-score model favours 1-1 at 11.4 percent, with 0-0 next at 9.71. Corners point Under 9.5 at 52.9 percent against an expected 9.1.

The honest caveat: these are marginal probabilities, and a 26.6 percent draw is no certainty. With so many injuries and Chicago's winning run, the value may hide in the double chance rather than the outright result.

Updated 19 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Atlanta United FC

Form (last 5)
LInter Miami (H) 1–3 Β· 17/10/2026WCF Montreal (A) 3–0 Β· 14/10/2026LFC Cincinnati (H) 1–3 Β· 10/10/2026DNew York City FC (H) 2–2 Β· 26/09/2026WPortland Timbers (A) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.24
xG against (recent avg)0.96
Elo strength rating1315
Players out22

Chicago Fire

Form (last 5)
LNew England Revolution (A) 0–1 Β· 17/10/2026LPhiladelphia Union (H) 1–3 Β· 15/10/2026WNew York City FC (H) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026WVancouver Whitecaps (H) 3–1 Β· 07/10/2026WCharlotte (A) 1–0 Β· 26/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.37
xG against (recent avg)1.48
Elo strength rating1359
Players out19
Atlanta United FCChicago Fire
Goals scored (season avg)
1.20
1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.70
1.50
Win streak (best this season)
3
3
xG for (recent avg)
1.24
1.37
xG against (recent avg)
0.96
1.48
Elo strength rating
1315
1359
Players out
22
19

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Atlanta United FC

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Chicago Fire

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Atlanta United FC at home Β· Chicago Fire away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Atlanta United FC (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–9L
W 4
D 2
L 9
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3

Chicago Fire (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–5D–5L
W 5
D 5
L 5
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
Atlanta United FC (home)Chicago Fire (away)
W 4
D 2
L 9
W 5
D 5
L 5
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
1.70
Clean sheets
1
3
Failed to score
3
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–1
11.4%
0–0
8%
2–2
3.9%
3–3
0.6%
4–4
0.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Atlanta United FC 3 wins Β· 4 draws Β· Chicago Fire 3 wins Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

3
4
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
12 Apr 2026 Chicago Fire 1–0 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer
16 Jul 2025 Atlanta United FC 2–2 Chicago Fire Major League Soccer
10 May 2025 Chicago Fire 2–1 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer
28 Apr 2024 Chicago Fire 0–0 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer
31 Mar 2024 Atlanta United FC 3–0 Chicago Fire Major League Soccer
21 May 2023 Chicago Fire 3–3 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer
23 Apr 2023 Atlanta United FC 2–1 Chicago Fire Major League Soccer
30 Jul 2022 Chicago Fire 0–0 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer
07 May 2022 Atlanta United FC 4–1 Chicago Fire Major League Soccer
04 Jul 2021 Chicago Fire 3–0 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Atlanta United FC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Inter Miami Home 1–3 L
14/10 CF Montreal Away 3–0 W
10/10 FC Cincinnati Home 1–3 L
26/09 New York City FC Home 2–2 D
20/09 Portland Timbers Away 1–0 W

Chicago Fire

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 New England Revolution Away 0–1 L
15/10 Philadelphia Union Home 1–3 L
10/10 New York City FC Home 2–1 W
07/10 Vancouver Whitecaps Home 3–1 W
26/09 Charlotte Away 1–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

Atlanta United FC

Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets4
Failed to score9
Yellow cards66
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.24
xG against (avg)0.96
Corners for (avg)5.20
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

Chicago Fire

Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets7
Failed to score3
Yellow cards67
Red cards3
xG for (avg)1.37
xG against (avg)1.48
Corners for (avg)3.10
Penalties (scored/missed)4/3
Atlanta United FCChicago Fire
Played
30
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.70
1.50
Clean sheets
4
7
Failed to score
9
3
Yellow cards
66
67
Red cards
1
3
xG for (avg)
1.24
1.37
xG against (avg)
0.96
1.48
Corners for (avg)
5.20
3.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/1
4/3

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Atlanta United FC

5
0-15
3
8
16-30
5
7
31-45
7
10
46-60
6
8
61-75
8
14
76-90
7
scored conceded

Chicago Fire

2
0-15
9
8
16-30
7
10
31-45
6
10
46-60
7
3
61-75
11
12
76-90
11
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Atlanta United FC

  • ❌ D. Chong-Qui β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Fortune β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ W. Reilly β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Berrocal β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ M. Galarza β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Almiron β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Alzate β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Jacob β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ E. Latte Lath β€” Illness
  • ❌ P. Amador β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ P. Diaz β€” Transfer negotiations
  • ❌ M. Edwards β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ C. Sanchez β€” International duty
  • ❌ M. Amaro β€” Inactive
  • ❌ E. Mihaj β€” Red Card
  • ❌ E. Baez β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ L. Brennan β€” Injury
  • ❌ B. Embolo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Giuliano Galoppo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Alonso β€” International duty
  • ❌ A. Miranchuk β€” International duty
  • ❌ D. Chica β€” Knee Injury
  • ❓ Sergio Santos (doubtful) β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❓ F. Picault (doubtful) β€” Injury

Chicago Fire

  • ❌ A. Franco β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Gutman β€” Inactive
  • ❌ V. Radojevic β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ S. Rogers β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ J. Dean β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Elliott β€” Illness
  • ❌ L. Barroso β€” Injury
  • ❌ R. Lod β€” Face Injury
  • ❌ S. Oregel β€” Head Injury
  • ❌ A. Saletros β€” Head Injury
  • ❌ D. D'Avilla β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ M. Mbokazi β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❌ C. Cupps β€” International duty
  • ❌ N. Allen β€” International duty
  • ❌ C. Brady β€” International duty
  • ❌ P. Dithejane β€” International duty
  • ❌ R. Lewandowski β€” International duty
  • ❌ A. Mekvabishvili β€” International duty
  • ❌ R. Turdean β€” Inactive
  • ❓ J. Bamba (doubtful) β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❓ J. Shokalook (doubtful) β€” Head Injury
  • ❓ H. Cuypers (doubtful) β€” Lower-Body Injury
  • ❓ C. Mueller (doubtful) β€” Lower-Body Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws