CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC

Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 • 23:30 UTC+3 • Round 29 • Saputo Stadium • ☁️ 9.3°C, 10 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Over/Under 2.5 — Under 2.5

Model 47.1% · Market best price ≈ 39.2% · Edge +9.0 pp

Best odds 2.55 Betfair 2.55Betano 2.50Pinnacle 2.45

Bet this pick →

¼ Kelly sizing: 2.7% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home 2.15 → 2.3 ▲7%	78%	39.7%	2.30	Betano	43%	-3.3 pp
Double Chance	1X	69%	69%	1.44	Betano	67.3%	+1.7 pp
BTTS	Yes	81%	49.8%	1.50	William Hill	63.4%	-13.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	80%	47.1%	2.55	Betfair	38.1%	+9 pp
Correct Score	1-0	64%	8.2%	12.00	Bet365	6.5%	+1.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.)	Over 9.5	62%	53.2%	1.87	Betano	51%	+2.2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: CF Montreal 1.39 – 1.09 Atlanta United FC · expected total 2.49

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

CF Montreal host Atlanta United at Saputo Stadium in a Regular Season round 29 fixture, and the model leans toward the home side despite a patchy recent record. Montreal's last five reads LWLWL, while Atlanta arrive with a DWDLD run that flatters a team struggling for a cutting edge. The expected goals picture is telling: Montreal carry a home figure of 1.3946 against Atlanta's away 1.0931, though recent form tempers that, with 0.85 and 1 respectively. The head-to-head record is volatile, with Atlanta winning 3-1 in May 2026 and Montreal edging the 2024 home meeting 1-0.

The headline tip is a home win at 39.7 percent probability, priced at 2.3, with confidence at 78. Double chance 1X lands at 69 percent and looks the safer anchor. Both teams to score is tipped Yes at 49.8 percent, offered at 1.5, while Under 2.5 goals carries 47.1 percent and a generous 2.55. The correct score model favours 1-0 at 8.2 percent, with 2-1 at 8.84 and 2-0 at 8.09 among the top scores. Corners point to Over 9.5, with an expected 10.1 and 53.2 percent probability.

Value may hide in the Under 2.5 at 2.55 given the modest attacking numbers, and the 1X double chance at 69 percent is the percentage play. The honest caveat: both squads list extensive injury concerns, and with Montreal's erratic LWLWL form, the home edge is far from guaranteed.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

CF Montreal

Form (last 5)

LToronto FC (A) 1–2 · 10/10/2026 WFC Cincinnati (H) 3–1 · 26/09/2026 LColumbus Crew (H) 0–2 · 19/09/2026WVancouver Whitecaps (H) 2–1 · 16/09/2026LColorado Rapids (A) 0–1 · 13/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)2.00

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)0.85

xG against (recent avg)1.66

Elo strength rating1263

Players out21

Atlanta United FC

Form (last 5)

DNew York City FC (H) 2–2 · 26/09/2026 WPortland Timbers (A) 1–0 · 20/09/2026 DDC United (A) 0–0 · 12/09/2026 LOrlando City SC (H) 2–3 · 09/09/2026 DInter Miami (A) 2–2 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.20

Goals conceded (season avg)1.70

Win streak (best this season)3

xG for (recent avg)0.66

xG against (recent avg)0.70

Elo strength rating1308

Players out22

CF MontrealAtlanta United FC

LToronto FC (A) 1–2 · 10/10/2026 WFC Cincinnati (H) 3–1 · 26/09/2026 LColumbus Crew (H) 0–2 · 19/09/2026WVancouver Whitecaps (H) 2–1 · 16/09/2026LColorado Rapids (A) 0–1 · 13/09/2026

DNew York City FC (H) 2–2 · 26/09/2026 WPortland Timbers (A) 1–0 · 20/09/2026 DDC United (A) 0–0 · 12/09/2026 LOrlando City SC (H) 2–3 · 09/09/2026 DInter Miami (A) 2–2 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.30

1.20

Goals conceded (season avg)

2.00

1.70

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.85

0.66

xG against (recent avg)

1.66

0.70

Elo strength rating

1263

1308

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

CF Montreal

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Atlanta United FC

Unbeaten 3

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Major League Soccer

CF Montreal

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Atlanta United FC

2nd worst attack (1.20 goals/game)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

CF Montreal at home · Atlanta United FC away — the split that matters for this fixture.

CF Montreal (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–5D–5L

W 4

D 5

L 5

Played14

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets3

Failed to score4

Atlanta United FC (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–7L

W 3

D 4

L 7

Played14

Goals scored (avg)0.90

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets2

Failed to score6

CF Montreal (home)Atlanta United FC (away)

W 4

D 5

L 5

W 3

D 4

L 7

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.40

0.90

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

1.60

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

8.2%

2–1

2–0

6.4%

3–1

3.3%

3–0

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Atlanta United FC 5 wins · 1 draw · CF Montreal 3 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 7 of 9

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
02 May 2026	Atlanta United FC	3–1	CF Montreal	Major League Soccer
09 Aug 2025	CF Montreal	1–1	Atlanta United FC	Major League Soccer
23 Feb 2025	Atlanta United FC	3–2	CF Montreal	Major League Soccer
02 Oct 2024	Atlanta United FC	1–2	CF Montreal	Major League Soccer
13 Jul 2024	CF Montreal	1–0	Atlanta United FC	Major League Soccer
07 Feb 2024	Atlanta United FC	2–1	CF Montreal	Friendlies Clubs
23 Sep 2023	Atlanta United FC	4–1	CF Montreal	Major League Soccer
08 Jul 2023	CF Montreal	0–1	Atlanta United FC	Major League Soccer
30 Apr 2022	CF Montreal	2–1	Atlanta United FC	Major League Soccer

📈 Recent Form

CF Montreal

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Toronto FC	Away	1–2	L
26/09	FC Cincinnati	Home	3–1	W
19/09	Columbus Crew	Home	0–2	L
16/09	Vancouver Whitecaps	Home	2–1	W
13/09	Colorado Rapids	Away	0–1	L

Atlanta United FC

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
26/09	New York City FC	Home	2–2	D
20/09	Portland Timbers	Away	1–0	W
12/09	DC United	Away	0–0	D
09/09	Orlando City SC	Home	2–3	L
05/09	Inter Miami	Away	2–2	D

📊 Season Comparison — Major League Soccer

CF Montreal

Played28

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets4

Failed to score10

Yellow cards60

Red cards2

xG for (avg)0.85

xG against (avg)1.66

Corners for (avg)4.50

Penalties (scored/missed)7/1

Atlanta United FC

Played27

Goals scored (avg)1.20

Goals conceded (avg)1.70

Clean sheets3

Failed to score9

Yellow cards59

Red cards1

xG for (avg)0.66

xG against (avg)0.70

Corners for (avg)6.40

Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

CF MontrealAtlanta United FC

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.30

1.20

Goals conceded (avg)

2.00

1.70

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.85

0.66

xG against (avg)

1.66

0.70

Corners for (avg)

4.50

6.40

Penalties (scored/missed)

7/1

1/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

CF Montreal

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Atlanta United FC

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

CF Montreal

❌ F. Herbers — Ankle Injury
❌ T. Aviles — Red Card
❌ B. Hidalgo — Inactive
❌ B. Vera — Injury
❌ J. Nteziryayo — Lower-Body Injury
❌ N. Streit — Illness
❌ W. Carmona — Injury
❌ G. Synchuk — Injury
❌ P. Owusu — Yellow Cards
❌ T. Gillier — Concussion
❌ F. Amaya — Lower-Body Injury
❌ B. Ceballos — Inactive
❌ E. Morales — Toe Injury
❌ A. Sanchez — Inactive
❌ D. Pereira — Lower-Body Injury
❌ J. Neal — Concussion
❌ M. Longstaff — Yellow Cards
❌ O. Escobar — International duty
❌ S. Piette — Yellow Cards
❌ V. Radojevic — International duty
❌ D. Sealy — International duty
❓ S. Ibrahim (doubtful) — Injury

Atlanta United FC

❌ D. Chong-Qui — Knee Injury
❌ A. Fortune — Foot Injury
❌ W. Reilly — Muscle Injury
❌ J. Berrocal — Hamstring Injury
❌ M. Galarza — Inactive
❌ M. Almiron — Knee Injury
❌ S. Alzate — Knee Injury
❌ T. Jacob — Leg Injury
❌ E. Latte Lath — Illness
❌ P. Amador — Achilles Tendon Injury
❌ P. Diaz — Transfer negotiations
❌ M. Edwards — Hamstring Injury
❌ C. Sanchez — International duty
❌ M. Amaro — Inactive
❌ E. Mihaj — Red Card
❌ E. Baez — Yellow Cards
❌ L. Brennan — Injury
❌ B. Embolo — Inactive
❌ Giuliano Galoppo — Inactive
❌ J. Alonso — International duty
❌ A. Miranchuk — International duty
❌ D. Chica — Knee Injury
❓ Sergio Santos (doubtful) — Lower-Body Injury
❓ F. Picault (doubtful) — Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws