Predictions β†’ Usa Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 23:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 30 β€’ Yankee Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 5.2Β°C, 29 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 51.2% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 43.5% Β· Edge +10.6 pp
Best odds 2.30 BetVictor 2.30Betano 2.30William Hill 2.25
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.4% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 74% 30.4% 2.42 Betano 40.5% -10.1 pp
Double Chance 12 66% 64.9% 1.30 William Hill 73.9% -9 pp
BTTS No 82% 51.2% 2.30 BetVictor 40.6% +10.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 53.7% 2.15 Betano 44.9% +8.8 pp
Correct Score 0-1 64% 7.8% 10.50 Pinnacle 7.5% +0.3 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 62% 27.2% 3.60 Betfair 26.1% +1.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~13.4 exp.) Over 9.5 69% 59.4% 1.52 Betano 61.4% -2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: New York City FC 1.18 – 0.86 Los Angeles FC Β· expected total 2.04

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

New York City FC host Los Angeles FC at Yankee Stadium in a Regular Season round 30 clash, with LAFC sitting 6th on 42 points from 29 played. The visitors arrive with the stronger table position, but both sides are grinding through inconsistent spells: NYCFC's last five read LDLWL, while LAFC's read LDLWD.

The model leans toward the away side, giving Los Angeles FC a 30.4 percent win probability at odds of 2.42, with confidence rated 74. The double chance covering the draw and away win sits at 64.9 percent, and the draw alone carries a 27.2 percent probability with confidence 62. Goals look scarce here: the home expected goals figure is 1.176 against an away figure of 0.8638, even though recent form shows the visitors creating more at 1.56 xG versus 1.24 for the hosts. Under 2.5 goals is the pick at 53.7 percent, priced at 2.15, while both teams to score is tipped No at 51.2 percent with odds of 2.3. The correct score headline is 0-1 at 7.8 percent, with 0-1 leading the top scores at 9.92, followed by 1-2 at 5.71 and 0-2 at 4.85. Corners offer another angle: over 9.5 is expected at 13.4 corners, a 59.4 percent probability.

The value question is whether 2.42 on an away win understates a 30.4 percent model read, and whether the Under 2.5 price of 2.15 is generous given both attacks' modest expected goals. The honest caveat is the lengthy injury list on both sides, which can distort form and xG signals, and the head-to-head record is tight, with recent meetings ending 1-1 and 1-0, so a low-scoring draw is a live risk.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

New York City FC

Form (last 5)
LChicago Fire (A) 1–2 Β· 10/10/2026DAtlanta United FC (A) 2–2 Β· 26/09/2026LNew York Red Bulls (H) 0–1 Β· 18/09/2026WReal Salt Lake (A) 2–0 Β· 13/09/2026LNew England Revolution (H) 1–2 Β· 10/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.00
xG against (recent avg)1.01
Elo strength rating1336
Players out18

Los Angeles FC

Form (last 5)
LFC Dallas (A) 0–1 Β· 27/09/2026DSan Jose Earthquakes (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026LSporting Kansas City (A) 1–3 Β· 13/09/2026WNew York Red Bulls (H) 2–0 Β· 10/09/2026DReal Salt Lake (A) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.56
xG against (recent avg)1.51
Elo strength rating1564
Players out19
New York City FCLos Angeles FC
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
1.10
Win streak (best this season)
3
4
xG for (recent avg)
1.00
1.56
xG against (recent avg)
1.01
1.51
Elo strength rating
1336
1564
Players out
18
19

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

New York City FC

Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Los Angeles FC

Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Major League Soccer

New York City FC

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Los Angeles FC

2nd best defence (1.10 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (13)

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

New York City FC at home Β· Los Angeles FC away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

New York City FC (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–4D–6L
W 4
D 4
L 6
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3

Los Angeles FC (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–6D–6L
W 3
D 6
L 6
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets5
Failed to score4
New York City FC (home)Los Angeles FC (away)
W 4
D 4
L 6
W 3
D 6
L 6
Played
14
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.30
Clean sheets
3
5
Failed to score
3
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
7.8%
1–2
4.5%
0–2
3.8%
1–3
1.3%
0–3
1.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Los Angeles FC 1 win Β· 5 draws Β· New York City FC 1 win Β· avg 2.6 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 7

1
5
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
08 Feb 2026 Los Angeles FC 1–1 New York City FC Friendlies Clubs
02 Mar 2025 Los Angeles FC 1–0 New York City FC Major League Soccer
28 Jan 2023 Los Angeles FC 1–1 New York City FC Friendlies Clubs
28 Jan 2023 New York City FC 1–1 Los Angeles FC Friendlies Clubs
29 May 2021 Los Angeles FC 1–2 New York City FC Major League Soccer
17 Mar 2019 New York City FC 2–2 Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer
14 May 2018 Los Angeles FC 2–2 New York City FC Major League Soccer

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

New York City FC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Chicago Fire Away 1–2 L
26/09 Atlanta United FC Away 2–2 D
18/09 New York Red Bulls Home 0–1 L
13/09 Real Salt Lake Away 2–0 W
10/09 New England Revolution Home 1–2 L

Los Angeles FC

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
27/09 FC Dallas Away 0–1 L
19/09 San Jose Earthquakes Away 2–2 D
13/09 Sporting Kansas City Away 1–3 L
10/09 New York Red Bulls Home 2–0 W
06/09 Real Salt Lake Away 2–2 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Major League Soccer

New York City FC β€”  Los Angeles FC #6 Β· 42 pts

New York City FC

Played28
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets5
Failed to score5
Yellow cards47
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.00
xG against (avg)1.01
Corners for (avg)5.00
Penalties (scored/missed)7/0

Los Angeles FC

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–9D–9L
W 11
D 9
L 9
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets13
Failed to score6
Yellow cards50
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.56
xG against (avg)1.51
Corners for (avg)7.90
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
New York City FCLos Angeles FC
W 11
D 9
L 9
Played
28
29
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.10
Clean sheets
5
13
Failed to score
5
6
Yellow cards
47
50
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
1.00
1.56
xG against (avg)
1.01
1.51
Corners for (avg)
5.00
7.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
7/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

New York City FC

6
0-15
5
4
16-30
11
6
31-45
9
5
46-60
7
8
61-75
5
10
76-90
4
scored conceded

Los Angeles FC

5
0-15
4
4
16-30
7
4
31-45
10
5
46-60
7
7
61-75
5
6
76-90
9
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

New York City FC

  • ❌ M. Jones β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ A. Martinez β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Perea β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ D. Baiera β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ H. Wolf β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Gray β€” Red Card
  • ❌ K. O'Toole β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ Talles Magno β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. O'Neill β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ M. Moralez β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ K. Parks β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ K. Trewin β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Farnos β€” Injury
  • ❌ Raul Gustavo β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ Thiago Martins β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ N. Mercau β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ M. Freese β€” International duty
  • ❌ M. Ilenic β€” International duty

Los Angeles FC

  • ❌ J. Ebobisse β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ Igor Jesus β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Long β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ J. Shaffelburg β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ L. Dellavalle β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Eustaquio β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ A. Boudri β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ D. Bouanga β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ S. Palencia β€” Injury
  • ❌ H. Lloris β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Tillman β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ T. Hasal β€” Arm Injury
  • ❌ D. Martinez β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ R. Porteous β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ E. Segura β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ M. Choiniere β€” International duty
  • ❌ J. Terry β€” International duty
  • ❌ L. Walta β€” International duty
  • ❌ C. Carter β€” Arm Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws