Cagliari vs Juventus

Cagliari sit fourth on 12 points after five rounds, three clear of a Juventus side down in seventh on 10, and the Unipol Domus has already seen the hosts string together a WWWLL run. The visitors arrive with WWLDW, so both camps have reason to feel the table flatters them slightly.

The model leans home: a Cagliari win is priced at 38.8 percent with confidence of 75, while the draw carries 28.5 percent at confidence 64. Recent expected goals tell a more cautious story — Cagliari have been creating just 1.11 while Juventus have been generating 1.74, even if the match-level numbers settle at 1.355 for the hosts and 1.2382 for the away side. Both squads are badly stretched: Cagliari list nine absentees including Nzola and Mina, Juventus a remarkable fourteen, from Di Gregorio and Locatelli to Milik and Yildiz. The head-to-head is tight, with Cagliari winning the last meeting 1-0 and Juventus edging three of the previous four.

Where does the value sit? The double chance covering draw and away lands at 70.6 percent, and Under 2.5 goals at 49.1 percent — a near coin-flip that may appeal if the bookmaker drifts above evens. Both teams to score is tipped No at 47 percent, and the correct-score board favours 1-0 at 8.89, ahead of 2-1 at 8.51 and 2-0 at 6.87. Corners look the most comfortable angle: Over 9.5 at 58.9 percent against an expected 10.8.

The honest caveat is that 38.8 percent is not a majority, and with this many injuries on both sides the line-ups could shift the picture sharply before kick-off.