Predictions → Brazil Serie A

Palmeiras vs Bahia

Palmeiras
1:0
Full Time · 09 Oct 2026
Bahia

No upcoming fixture scheduled — showing the last meeting result and the pre-match predictions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions — pre-match vs actual

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdgeResult
Match Result (1X2) Home 87% 65.5% @1.60 — 64% +1.5 pp ✅
Double Chance 1X 75% 76.9% @1.17 — 84.5% -7.6 pp ✅
BTTS Yes 81% 48.5% @1.67 — 57.4% -8.9 pp ❌
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.7% @1.60 — 60.5% -12.8 pp ❌
Correct Score 1-0 65% 8.3% @9.00 — 5.7% +2.6 pp ✅
Corners O/U 9.5 (~? exp.) Over 9.5 67% 57.6% @1.59 — 60.3% -2.7 pp ✅

⚽ Model expected goals: Palmeiras 1.73 – 0.98 Bahia · expected total 2.70

Predictions made before kick-off, shown against the actual result. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

📈 Team Trends

Palmeiras

Unbeaten 10
BTTS
0/6
Over 2.5
0/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
6/6

Bahia

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Serie A

Palmeiras

2nd best attack (1.70 goals/game) Best defence (0.70 conceded/game) Worst BTTS rate (0%) Worst Over 2.5 rate (0%) Best clean sheets (13)

Bahia

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Palmeiras at home · Bahia away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Palmeiras (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–3D–1L
W 10
D 3
L 1
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets6
Failed to score1

Bahia (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–4D–5L
W 6
D 4
L 5
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Palmeiras (home)Bahia (away)
W 10
D 3
L 1
W 6
D 4
L 5
Played
14
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
1.50
Clean sheets
6
4
Failed to score
1
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

📈 Recent Form

Palmeiras

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Bahia Home 1–0 W
20/09 Gremio Away 0–0 D
12/09 Sao Paulo Home 2–0 W
09/09 LDU de Quito Home 1–0 W
06/09 Botafogo Away 0–0 D

Bahia

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Palmeiras Away 0–1 L
20/09 Atletico Paranaense Away 1–2 L
14/09 Remo Home 2–1 W
05/09 RB Bragantino Away 3–2 W
30/08 Internacional Home 3–2 W

📊 Season Comparison — Serie A

Palmeiras #2 · 60 pts —  Bahia #7 · 46 pts

Palmeiras

Wins–Draws–Losses17W–9D–3L
W 17
D 9
L 3
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets13
Failed to score4
Yellow cards65
Red cards5
xG for (avg)0.75
xG against (avg)0.47
Corners for (avg)8.20
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Bahia

Wins–Draws–Losses12W–10D–7L
W 12
D 10
L 7
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets8
Failed to score4
Yellow cards68
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.86
xG against (avg)0.96
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)7/3
PalmeirasBahia
W 17
D 9
L 3
W 12
D 10
L 7
Played
29
29
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
1.20
Clean sheets
13
8
Failed to score
4
4
Yellow cards
65
68
Red cards
5
2
xG for (avg)
0.75
1.86
xG against (avg)
0.47
0.96
Corners for (avg)
8.20
5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
7/3

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Palmeiras

2
0-15
8
1
16-30
9
5
31-45
6
6
46-60
8
3
61-75
9
5
76-90
7
scored conceded

Bahia

5
0-15
4
8
16-30
7
4
31-45
9
9
46-60
7
6
61-75
5
4
76-90
11
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Palmeiras

  • ❌ Felipe Anderson — Inactive
  • ❌ Figueiredo — Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Evangelista — Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Paulinho — Leg Injury
  • ❌ J. Arias — Inactive
  • ❌ Mauricio — Inactive
  • ❌ Murilo — Inactive
  • ❌ Vitor Roque — Inactive
  • ❌ J. Piquerez — Injury
  • ❌ Jefte — Inactive
  • ❌ Marlon Freitas — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Allan Elias — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Benedetti — Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Bruno Fuchs — Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ R. Sosa — Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Andreas Pereira — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Carlos Miguel — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Giay — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Gomez — International duty
  • ❌ J. Lopez — International duty
  • ❌ E. Martinez — International duty
  • ❌ A. Barboza — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Khellven — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Arthur Gabriel — Red Card

Bahia

  • ❌ Ruan Pablo — Inactive
  • ❌ M. Sanabria — Knee Injury
  • ❌ Michel Araujo — Red Card
  • ❌ Sidney Duarte — Injury
  • ❌ Dell — Red Card
  • ❌ Caio Alexandre — Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Gilberto — Illness
  • ❌ Kanu — Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Nicolas Acevedo — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Willian Jose — Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Ronaldo Strada — Injury
  • ❌ S. Ramos — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Erick — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Luciano Juba — Injury
  • ❌ Rodrigo — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Leo Vieira — Injury
  • ❌ M. Moreno — Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ C. Olivera — Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Ze Guilherme — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Erick Pulga — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ademir — Injury
  • ❌ Jean Lucas — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Everaldo — Red Card
  • ❓ David Duarte (doubtful) — Hamstring Injury
  • ❓ Everton Ribeiro (doubtful) — Injury

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