Predictions → Brazil Serie A

Sao Paulo vs Santos

Sao Paulo
1:2
Full Time · 02 Oct 2026
Santos

No upcoming fixture scheduled — showing the last meeting result and the pre-match predictions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions — pre-match vs actual

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdgeResult
Match Result (1X2) Home 80% 46.8% @2.01 — 50.2% -3.4 pp ❌
Double Chance 12 69% 68.3% @1.33 — 72.3% -4 pp ❌
BTTS Yes 81% 49.2% @1.95 — 49% +0.2 pp ✅
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 48.4% @1.74 — 56.1% -7.7 pp ❌
Correct Score 1-0 64% 7.7% @6.50 — 7.6% +0.1 pp ❌
Corners O/U 9.5 (~? exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.4% @1.57 — 60.7% -7.3 pp ✅

⚽ Model expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.41 – 1.14 Santos · expected total 2.55

Predictions made before kick-off, shown against the actual result. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

📈 Team Trends

Sao Paulo

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Santos

Unbeaten 8
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Serie A

Sao Paulo

2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Santos

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 3rd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Sao Paulo at home · Santos away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Sao Paulo (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–3D–3L
W 8
D 3
L 3
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets5
Failed to score1

Santos (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–4D–5L
W 5
D 4
L 5
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Sao Paulo (home)Santos (away)
W 8
D 3
L 3
W 5
D 4
L 5
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
1.60
Clean sheets
5
3
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

📈 Recent Form

Sao Paulo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
08/10 Cruzeiro Away 0–2 L
02/10 Santos Home 1–2 L
20/09 Internacional Home 1–0 W
16/09 Boca Juniors Home 1–1 D
12/09 Palmeiras Away 0–2 L

Santos

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
08/10 Flamengo Home 2–2 D
02/10 Sao Paulo Away 2–1 W
19/09 Remo Away 2–1 W
13/09 Cruzeiro Home 2–1 W
09/09 Atletico-MG Home 2–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — Serie A

Sao Paulo #9 · 39 pts —  Santos #8 · 42 pts

Sao Paulo

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–6D–13L
W 11
D 6
L 13
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets6
Failed to score7
Yellow cards58
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.25
xG against (avg)0.46
Corners for (avg)5.20
Penalties (scored/missed)6/0

Santos

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–9D–10L
W 11
D 9
L 10
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets6
Failed to score3
Yellow cards88
Red cards4
xG for (avg)0.68
xG against (avg)0.60
Corners for (avg)6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)8/0
Sao PauloSantos
W 11
D 6
L 13
W 11
D 9
L 10
Played
30
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.50
Clean sheets
6
6
Failed to score
7
3
Yellow cards
58
88
Red cards
2
4
xG for (avg)
0.25
0.68
xG against (avg)
0.46
0.60
Corners for (avg)
5.20
6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
6/0
8/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Sao Paulo

1
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
14
46-60
7
3
61-75
9
8
76-90
4
scored conceded

Santos

3
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
8
31-45
6
5
46-60
13
8
61-75
6
12
76-90
11
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Sao Paulo

  • ❌ Andre Silva — Knee Injury
  • ❌ Ryan Francisco — Knee Injury
  • ❌ Alisson — Inactive
  • ❌ Danielzinho — Inactive
  • ❌ Lucca Marques — Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Ramon — Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Moura — Broken rib
  • ❌ D. Bobadilla — International duty
  • ❌ Carlos Coronel — Inactive
  • ❌ E. Diaz — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Franco — Injury
  • ❌ G. Tapia — International duty
  • ❌ Paulinho — Inactive
  • ❌ Jonathan Calleri — Contusion
  • ❌ Luciano — Overload
  • ❌ Pablo Maia — Face Injury
  • ❌ Sabino — Overload
  • ❌ Djhordney — Inactive
  • ❌ Marcos Antonio — Injury
  • ❌ R. Toloi — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ferreira — Inactive
  • ❌ Maik — Inactive
  • ❌ Robert Arboleda — Inactive
  • ❌ Cauly — Inactive
  • ❌ Wendell — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Victor Sa — Inactive
  • ❌ Luis Osorio — Red Card
  • ❌ N. Bosshardt — Inactive
  • ❌ Buta — Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Duarte — Knee Injury
  • ❌ Iago Borduchi — Inactive
  • ❌ Rafael — Inactive
  • ❌ P. dos Santos — International duty

Santos

  • ❌ A. Frias — Inactive
  • ❌ Mayke — Inactive
  • ❌ Neymar — Knee Injury
  • ❌ Thaciano — Inactive
  • ❌ Tiquinho Soares — Inactive
  • ❌ Willian Arao — Inactive
  • ❌ Gustavo Henrique — Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Duarte — Inactive
  • ❌ Gabriel Barbosa — Inactive
  • ❌ Ze Rafael — Inactive
  • ❌ Luan Peres — Red Card
  • ❌ Vinicius Lira — Knee Injury
  • ❌ L. Diaz — Loan agreement
  • ❌ Gabriel Menino — Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Rodrigo Falcao — Injury
  • ❌ Igor Vinicius — Inactive
  • ❌ Rony — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Barreal — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Escobar — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ T. Rincon — Health problems
  • ❌ Gabriel Brazao — Inactive
  • ❌ Joao Schmidt — Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ B. Rollheiser — Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Moises — Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Verissimo — Calf Injury
  • ❌ Pepe Fermino — Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Gabriel Bontempo — Injury
  • ❌ Coutinho — Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ Everton — Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Arthur Melo — Muscle Injury

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