Bulgaria First League Predictions and Betting Tips

Ludogorets carry the strongest signal in this window, a 87 confidence home pick against Arda Kardzhali with a 65.9% model probability, the highest in the snapshot. Their 2.1425 home lambda dwarfs Arda's 1.0454, reflecting a side scoring 2.3 per game. CSKA 1948 versus Botev Plovdiv follows at 86 confidence and 63.5%, while CSKA Sofia against Ludogorets sits at 84 and 57.3%. Back Ludogorets at home, though no priced odds were fetched.

Across 106 settled matches in this league, updated 2026-09-20, the PredictLix model has called 44.3% of match winners correctly (47/106). Double chance lands at 80.2% (85/106), while BTTS sits at 48.1% (51/106) and Over/Under 2.5 at 49.1% (52/106). Correct score is hardest at 15.1% (16/106). High-confidence picks (75+) hit 53.7% (n=341); medium-confidence (50-74) manage 34.5% (n=252).

CSKA Sofia versus Ludogorets stands out as the window's clearest Over lean, with the PredictLix model flagging Over 2.5 at 54.8% and home lambda 2.0762 against Ludogorets' 1.2562. CSKA 1948 against Botev Plovdiv also tilts Over at 52.2%, driven by a 1.9619 home lambda. At the other end, Lokomotiv Plovdiv against Slavia Sofia leans Under 2.5 at 55.6%, reflecting Slavia's 0.9917 away lambda. Back Over 2.5 in CSKA Sofia versus Ludogorets, though no listed odds exist, so confidence rests on the 54.8% figure.

Levski Sofia arrive on a five-match unbeaten sequence, the standout run among the top sides. CSKA Sofia have strung together four wins and a draw, while Ludogorets sit on a five-game unbeaten stretch. At the other end, Lokomotiv Sofia, Cherno More Varna and Dunav Ruse have each managed just one win across their last ten outings. The PredictLix model also flags Ludogorets and CSKA 1948 as its highest-confidence home streaks.

Ludogorets stand apart defensively, conceding just 0.4 per game with 5 clean sheets from 9 outings, while Levski Sofia and CSKA Sofia both boast a goal difference of +17. Cherno More Varna and Dunav Ruse sit at the opposite end, each shipping 1.9 goals per game without a single clean sheet. Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Septemvri Sofia also leak heavily, conceding 2 and 1.8 respectively, underlining why both are fighting relegation.

Dunav Ruse sit bottom on 5 points, fighting the drop in Regular Season - 12 against a mid-table Spartak Varna. Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna also occupy the RELEGATION ZONE, both needing wins. At the other end, Levski Sofia lead on 25 points with CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets chasing Champions League spots. Arda Kardzhali and Botev Plovdiv hold European spots. With full data coverage, the table carries real weight across this window.

CSKA 1948 carry the sharpest edge in this window, with the PredictLix model rating their home tie against Botev Plovdiv at 86 confidence and a 63.5% predicted outcome. Ludogorets sit close behind at 87 confidence for their clash with Arda Kardzhali. Yet the accumulator cannot be built. There were not enough priced high-confidence legs with real odds, so no acca is offered here. One single stands out: CSKA 1948 to win, backed by that 86 confidence rating.