Predictions → Colombia Primera A

Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas

Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 • 23:30 UTC+3 • Clausura - 7 • Estadio Américo Montanini • 🌤 21.2°C, 0 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.91 → 2.01 ▲5% 82% 52% 2.01 Dafabet 49.4% +2.6 pp
Double Chance 1X 76% 78.7% 1.27 Betano 77.1% +1.6 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 49.3% 1.90 Betfair 50.1% -0.8 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47.7% 1.75 Betano 54.5% -6.8 pp
Correct Score 1-0 66% 8.9% 7.00 Bet365 7.1% +1.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.8 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53.5% 1.67 Betano 56.6% -3.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.75 – 0.91 Águilas Doradas · expected total 2.66

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Bucaramanga host Águilas Doradas at Estadio Américo Montanini in round seven of the Clausura, with both sides stuck in mid-table and needing a win to build momentum. The standings are tight: the visitors sit 12th on 26 points from 19 games, the hosts 13th on 23 from the same number, so three points here could swing the mood quickly.

The form lines point one way. Bucaramanga arrive on a WWWDW run, while Águilas Doradas have stumbled to DWLLD. The model leans heavily on that, pricing a home win at 52% and 2.01, with the double chance 1X at 78.7%. Expected goals tell a more cautious story: the hosts are projected at 1.7506 against 0.9104 for the visitors, yet recent xG reads 0.72 for Bucaramanga and 1.28 for Águilas, a warning that the home attack has not been creating much lately.

Goals look scarce. Under 2.5 carries 47.7% at 1.75, and both teams to score sits at 49.3% at 1.9 — essentially a coin flip, so the value may hide in the unders and the 1X rather than a straight home win. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 8.9%, with 1-0 and 2-0 the leading scorelines. Corners point low too, under 9.5 at 53.5% against an expected 8.8.

The honest caveat: no injuries are listed for either side, but the recent xG split contradicts the form table, and Águilas have won two of the last five head-to-head meetings. A low-scoring away upset is not impossible.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Bucaramanga

Form (last 5)
WJunior (H) 3–1 · 04/10/2026WOnce Caldas (A) 3–1 · 26/09/2026WInternacional de Bogota (H) 2–0 · 20/09/2026DIndependiente Medellin (H) 2–2 · 18/09/2026WDeportivo Pereira (A) 3–1 · 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.37
xG against (recent avg)0.61
Elo strength rating1698

Águilas Doradas

Form (last 5)
DAlianza Valledupar (A) 2–2 · 09/10/2026WJaguares (H) 2–0 · 03/10/2026LDeportivo Cali (A) 0–2 · 28/09/2026LAmerica de Cali (A) 0–1 · 24/09/2026DDeportivo Pereira (H) 2–2 · 18/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.59
xG against (recent avg)0.47
Elo strength rating1481
BucaramangaÁguilas Doradas
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
2
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.37
0.59
xG against (recent avg)
0.61
0.47
Elo strength rating
1698
1481

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Bucaramanga

Won 3 in a row Unbeaten 10
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Águilas Doradas

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primera A

Bucaramanga

2nd best attack (1.50 goals/game) Best BTTS rate (83%)

Águilas Doradas

2nd worst clean sheets (5)

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Bucaramanga at home · Águilas Doradas away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Bucaramanga (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–7D–1L
W 6
D 7
L 1
Played14
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets6
Failed to score2

Águilas Doradas (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–5D–6L
W 4
D 5
L 6
Played15
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score5
Bucaramanga (home)Águilas Doradas (away)
W 6
D 7
L 1
W 4
D 5
L 6
Played
14
15
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.40
Clean sheets
6
2
Failed to score
2
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8.9%
2–0
8.6%
2–1
7.8%
3–0
5%
3–1
4.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Águilas Doradas 4 wins · 2 draws · Bucaramanga 4 wins · avg 2.2 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10

4
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
07 Apr 2026 Águilas Doradas 2–1 Bucaramanga Primera A
25 Aug 2025 Bucaramanga 4–0 Águilas Doradas Primera A
08 Mar 2025 Águilas Doradas 0–1 Bucaramanga Primera A
21 Oct 2024 Águilas Doradas 1–3 Bucaramanga Primera A
27 Mar 2024 Bucaramanga 1–0 Águilas Doradas Primera A
21 Aug 2023 Bucaramanga 1–1 Águilas Doradas Primera A
25 Feb 2023 Águilas Doradas 1–0 Bucaramanga Primera A
06 Oct 2022 Bucaramanga 0–1 Águilas Doradas Primera A
20 Jan 2022 Águilas Doradas 1–1 Bucaramanga Primera A
20 Sep 2021 Águilas Doradas 3–0 Bucaramanga Primera A

📈 Recent Form

Bucaramanga

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
04/10 Junior Home 3–1 W
26/09 Once Caldas Away 3–1 W
20/09 Internacional de Bogota Home 2–0 W
18/09 Independiente Medellin Home 2–2 D
13/09 Deportivo Pereira Away 3–1 W

Águilas Doradas

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Alianza Valledupar Away 2–2 D
03/10 Jaguares Home 2–0 W
28/09 Deportivo Cali Away 0–2 L
24/09 America de Cali Away 0–1 L
18/09 Deportivo Pereira Home 2–2 D

📊 Season Comparison — Primera A

Bucaramanga #13 · 23 pts —  Águilas Doradas #12 · 26 pts

Bucaramanga

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–8D–6L
W 5
D 8
L 6
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets10
Failed to score8
Yellow cards81
Red cards5
xG for (avg)0.37
xG against (avg)0.61
Corners for (avg)1.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/2

Águilas Doradas

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–5D–7L
W 7
D 5
L 7
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets5
Failed to score8
Yellow cards83
Red cards4
xG for (avg)0.59
xG against (avg)0.47
Corners for (avg)4.70
Penalties (scored/missed)7/1
BucaramangaÁguilas Doradas
W 5
D 8
L 6
W 7
D 5
L 7
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.40
Clean sheets
10
5
Failed to score
8
8
Yellow cards
81
83
Red cards
5
4
xG for (avg)
0.37
0.59
xG against (avg)
0.61
0.47
Corners for (avg)
1.50
4.70
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/2
7/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Bucaramanga

3
0-15
6
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
13
5
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
8
76-90
8
scored conceded

Águilas Doradas

3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
9
31-45
2
10
46-60
9
8
61-75
5
8
76-90
13
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws