Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar

Deportivo Pasto host Alianza Valledupar at the Estadio Departamental Libertad in round 15 of the Clausura, and the table tells the story of the season so far. Pasto sit 3rd on 34 points from 19 games, while Alianza are down in 17th with just 17 points from the same number of matches. The gap in quality and home advantage makes this a fixture where the hosts should control proceedings.

The model leans heavily on that disparity. Pasto's recent form reads DLWWL, Alianza's DLWLW, and neither side arrives in sparkling touch, but the underlying numbers favour the home team clearly: an expected goals split of 1.4053 to 0.6115. Recent xG for both sits at 0.8, which tempers the goal expectation and explains why the model prefers a tighter game. No injuries are listed for either squad, so both coaches have full options. The head-to-head is worth noting, with a 0-0 and a 3-3 among the last five meetings, so this fixture has produced both stalemates and chaos.

The headline tip is a home win at 57.9% probability, priced at 1.78, with confidence of 84. Double chance 1X comes in at 82%. For goals, Under 2.5 is favoured at 52.9% (odds 1.71), and BTTS No at 53% (odds 1.8). The correct score model points to 1-0 at 14.8%, with 2-0 next at 13.15%. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 53.2% with an expected 9.

The honest caveat: Alianza have shown they can frustrate Pasto, and those recent 0-0 and 3-3 results prove this matchup does not always follow the table. At 1.78, the home win offers limited margin for error.