Predictions → Colombia Primera A

Bucaramanga vs America de Cali

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 21:00 UTC+3 • Clausura - 15 • 🌦 22.8°C, 3 km/h, 0.7mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 78% 40.7% — — — —
Double Chance 1X 69% 69.2% — — — —
BTTS Yes 83% 52.5% — — — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47.3% — — — —
Correct Score 1-0 63% 7.7% — — — —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.4 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 54.5% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.46 – 1.13 America de Cali · expected total 2.60

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Bucaramanga host America de Cali in round 15 of the Clausura, and the table tells a story of contrasting seasons: the visitors sit 4th on 33 points, while the hosts are down in 13th on 23. Form, though, flips the narrative — Bucaramanga arrive on a WWWDW run, America on WWDLW.

The model leans toward the home side despite the standings gap, giving Bucaramanga a 40.7 percent win probability at 78 confidence, with the double chance 1X at 69.2 percent. Expected goals are modest: 1.464 for the hosts against 1.1312 for America, while recent xG readings sit even lower at 0.72 and 0.68. That points to a tight, low-scoring night, and the model agrees — Under 2.5 lands at 47.3 percent, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline at 9.7 percent inside a correct-score tip of 7.7 percent. Both teams to score comes in at 52.5 percent, and corners are expected to stay under 9.5 at 54.5 percent, with an expected 8.4.

The value question is whether the bookmakers respect Bucaramanga's form or America's league position. If the market prices the visitors as favourites on table rank alone, the 40.7 percent home win and 69.2 percent double chance could be the spots where the model disagrees with the odds. The caveat is real: the head-to-head is ugly for the hosts, with America winning three of the last five, including 2-0 and 2-1 in April and March 2026, and no injuries are listed to explain away that pattern.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Bucaramanga

Form (last 5)
WJunior (H) 3–1 · 04/10/2026WOnce Caldas (A) 3–1 · 26/09/2026WInternacional de Bogota (H) 2–0 · 20/09/2026DIndependiente Medellin (H) 2–2 · 18/09/2026WDeportivo Pereira (A) 3–1 · 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.37
xG against (recent avg)0.61
Elo strength rating1698

America de Cali

Form (last 5)
WLlaneros (A) 2–1 · 05/10/2026WÁguilas Doradas (H) 1–0 · 24/09/2026DDeportes Tolima (A) 1–1 · 20/09/2026LDeportivo Pasto (H) 0–1 · 15/09/2026WDeportivo Pereira (H) 4–1 · 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)0.45
xG against (recent avg)0.84
Elo strength rating1555
BucaramangaAmerica de Cali
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
0.80
Win streak (best this season)
2
4
xG for (recent avg)
0.37
0.45
xG against (recent avg)
0.61
0.84
Elo strength rating
1698
1555

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Bucaramanga

Won 3 in a row Unbeaten 10
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

America de Cali

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primera A

Bucaramanga

2nd best attack (1.50 goals/game) Best BTTS rate (83%)

America de Cali

2nd best attack (1.50 goals/game) Best defence (0.80 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (16)

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Bucaramanga at home · America de Cali away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Bucaramanga (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–7D–1L
W 6
D 7
L 1
Played14
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets6
Failed to score2

America de Cali (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–3D–7L
W 7
D 3
L 7
Played17
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets6
Failed to score5
Bucaramanga (home)America de Cali (away)
W 6
D 7
L 1
W 7
D 3
L 7
Played
14
17
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.20
Clean sheets
6
6
Failed to score
2
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
7.7%
2–1
7.2%
2–0
6.4%
3–1
3.5%
3–0
3.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

America de Cali 5 wins · 3 draws · Bucaramanga 1 win · avg 1.9 goals · BTTS in 3 of 9

5
3
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
02 Apr 2026 America de Cali 2–0 Bucaramanga Primera A
06 Mar 2026 America de Cali 2–1 Bucaramanga CONMEBOL Sudamericana
16 Sep 2025 America de Cali 0–0 Bucaramanga Primera A
03 Sep 2025 America de Cali 2–0 Bucaramanga Copa Colombia
27 Aug 2025 Bucaramanga 1–0 America de Cali Copa Colombia
03 Feb 2025 Bucaramanga 0–4 America de Cali Primera A
31 Oct 2024 Bucaramanga 1–1 America de Cali Copa Colombia
18 Aug 2024 Bucaramanga 1–2 America de Cali Primera A
16 Feb 2024 America de Cali 0–0 Bucaramanga Primera A

📈 Recent Form

Bucaramanga

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
04/10 Junior Home 3–1 W
26/09 Once Caldas Away 3–1 W
20/09 Internacional de Bogota Home 2–0 W
18/09 Independiente Medellin Home 2–2 D
13/09 Deportivo Pereira Away 3–1 W

America de Cali

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
05/10 Llaneros Away 2–1 W
24/09 Águilas Doradas Home 1–0 W
20/09 Deportes Tolima Away 1–1 D
15/09 Deportivo Pasto Home 0–1 L
09/09 Deportivo Pereira Home 4–1 W

📊 Season Comparison — Primera A

Bucaramanga #13 · 23 pts —  America de Cali #4 · 33 pts

Bucaramanga

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–8D–6L
W 5
D 8
L 6
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets10
Failed to score8
Yellow cards81
Red cards5
xG for (avg)0.37
xG against (avg)0.61
Corners for (avg)1.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/2

America de Cali

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–3D–6L
W 10
D 3
L 6
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets16
Failed to score7
Yellow cards101
Red cards9
xG for (avg)0.45
xG against (avg)0.84
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)9/0
BucaramangaAmerica de Cali
W 5
D 8
L 6
W 10
D 3
L 6
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.80
Clean sheets
10
16
Failed to score
8
7
Yellow cards
81
101
Red cards
5
9
xG for (avg)
0.37
0.45
xG against (avg)
0.61
0.84
Corners for (avg)
1.50
5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/2
9/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Bucaramanga

3
0-15
6
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
13
5
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
8
76-90
8
scored conceded

America de Cali

8
0-15
3
2
16-30
13
5
31-45
7
1
46-60
9
2
61-75
11
9
76-90
7
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws