Predictions → Colombia Primera A

Deportivo Pereira vs Chico

Next match: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 • 21:30 UTC+3 • Clausura - 15 • Santiago de las Atalayas • 🌦 19.6°C, 3 km/h, 0.7mm drizzle

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS — No
Model 56.5% · Market best price ≈ 53.2% · Edge +6.9 pp
Best odds 1.88 Betano 1.881xBet 1.86William Hill 1.85
Bet this pick →
¼ Kelly sizing: 1.8% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 77% 38.4% 2.35 Betano 41.2% -2.8 pp
Double Chance 1X 75% 76.6% 1.38 Betano 70.1% +6.5 pp
BTTS No 85% 56.5% 1.88 Betano 49.6% +6.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 86% 58.3% 1.67 Bet365 56.3% +2 pp
Correct Score 1-0 78% 15.9% 7.50 Bet365 6.6% +9.3 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.8 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53.7% 1.55 Betano 60.5% -6.8 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Deportivo Pereira 1.02 – 0.61 Chico · expected total 1.63

🧠 Match Preview

Deportivo Pereira host Chico at Santiago de las Atalayas on Wednesday in round 15 of the Clausura, and the stakes are grim at both ends of the table. Pereira sit 20th with 10 points from 19 games, while Chico are 18th on 17 points from the same number of matches. Neither side can afford to lose this one.

The model sees a low-quality, low-scoring affair. Pereira's recent form reads DLLDD, Chico's LDWLL, and the expected goals tell the same story: 1.0204 for the hosts against 0.6115 for the visitors, with recent xG of 0.91 and 0.76 respectively. No injuries are listed for either squad, so both coaches have full hands to play. The head-to-head offers little comfort for the away side: Chico won 1-0 in April 2026, but the previous four meetings produced two 1-1 draws and a pair of Pereira wins.

The headline tip is a home win at 38.4 percent probability, priced at 2.35 by the bookmakers, with double chance 1X rated at 76.6 percent. Under 2.5 goals comes in at 58.3 percent and odds of 1.67, while BTTS No sits at 56.5 percent and 1.88. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 15.9 percent, with 2-0 next at 10.18. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 53.7 percent, with an expected 8.8.

The honest caveat: Pereira have drawn three of their last five and won none, so backing them outright at 2.35 carries real risk. The safer value may hide in the double chance and the unders.

Updated 14 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Deportivo Pereira

Form (last 5)
DDeportivo Cali (H) 0–0 · 10/10/2026LCucuta (A) 0–4 · 04/10/2026LSanta Fe (H) 1–2 · 29/09/2026DInternacional de Bogota (H) 0–0 · 26/09/2026DÁguilas Doradas (A) 2–2 · 18/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.60
xG against (recent avg)0.61
Elo strength rating1307

Chico

Form (last 5)
LCucuta (H) 0–1 · 11/10/2026DDeportes Tolima (A) 0–0 · 03/10/2026WDeportivo Pasto (H) 3–0 · 25/09/2026LMillonarios (A) 0–3 · 19/09/2026LAlianza Valledupar (H) 1–2 · 16/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.39
xG against (recent avg)0.74
Elo strength rating1296
Deportivo PereiraChico
Goals scored (season avg)
0.70
0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.60
0.39
xG against (recent avg)
0.61
0.74
Elo strength rating
1307
1296

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Deportivo Pereira

Winless 9
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Chico

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primera A

Deportivo Pereira

Worst attack (0.70 goals/game)

Chico

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Deportivo Pereira at home · Chico away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Deportivo Pereira (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–7D–7L
W 1
D 7
L 7
Played15
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets5
Failed to score7

Chico (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–13L
D 3
L 13
Played16
Goals scored (avg)0.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.60
Clean sheets1
Failed to score13
Deportivo Pereira (home)Chico (away)
W 1
D 7
L 7
D 3
L 13
Played
15
16
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
0.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
2.60
Clean sheets
5
1
Failed to score
7
13

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
15.9%
2–0
8.6%
2–1
5.3%
3–0
2.9%
3–1
1.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Chico 2 wins · 5 draws · Deportivo Pereira 3 wins · avg 1.8 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10

2
5
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
02 Apr 2026 Chico 1–0 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
22 Sep 2025 Chico 1–1 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
06 Apr 2025 Deportivo Pereira 1–1 Chico Primera A
07 Aug 2024 Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Chico Primera A
05 Feb 2024 Chico 1–2 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
05 Aug 2023 Deportivo Pereira 1–1 Chico Primera A
12 Feb 2023 Chico 3–1 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
17 Mar 2021 Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Chico Primera A
22 Feb 2020 Chico 0–1 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
27 Nov 2019 Chico 1–1 Deportivo Pereira Primera B

📈 Recent Form

Deportivo Pereira

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Deportivo Cali Home 0–0 D
04/10 Cucuta Away 0–4 L
29/09 Santa Fe Home 1–2 L
26/09 Internacional de Bogota Home 0–0 D
18/09 Águilas Doradas Away 2–2 D

Chico

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Cucuta Home 0–1 L
03/10 Deportes Tolima Away 0–0 D
25/09 Deportivo Pasto Home 3–0 W
19/09 Millonarios Away 0–3 L
16/09 Alianza Valledupar Home 1–2 L

📊 Season Comparison — Primera A

Deportivo Pereira #20 · 10 pts —  Chico #18 · 17 pts

Deportivo Pereira

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–7D–11L
W 1
D 7
L 11
Played19
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets7
Failed to score17
Yellow cards81
Red cards8
xG for (avg)0.60
xG against (avg)0.61
Corners for (avg)4.30
Penalties (scored/missed)3/1

Chico

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–2D–12L
W 5
D 2
L 12
Played19
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets8
Failed to score18
Yellow cards84
Red cards8
xG for (avg)0.39
xG against (avg)0.74
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1
Deportivo PereiraChico
W 1
D 7
L 11
W 5
D 2
L 12
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.60
Clean sheets
7
8
Failed to score
17
18
Yellow cards
81
84
Red cards
8
8
xG for (avg)
0.60
0.39
xG against (avg)
0.61
0.74
Corners for (avg)
4.30
4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/1
0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Deportivo Pereira

6
0-15
3
6
16-30
1
8
31-45
6
10
46-60
3
8
61-75
6
11
76-90
3
scored conceded

Chico

6
0-15
5
7
16-30
3
9
31-45
7
6
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
16
76-90
5
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws