Predictions → Colombia Primera A

Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira

Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 • 00:15 UTC+3 • Clausura - 16 • Estadio Palogrande • 🌦 14.6°C, 2 km/h, 0.9mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 90% 72.4% — — — —
Double Chance 1X 83% 88.2% — — — —
BTTS No 83% 53.8% — — — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.5% — — — —
Correct Score 1-0 77% 15.4% — — — —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 53.8% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Once Caldas 1.69 – 0.49 Deportivo Pereira · expected total 2.18

🧠 Match Preview

Once Caldas host Deportivo Pereira at Estadio Palogrande in round 16 of the Clausura, and the table tells the story before a ball is kicked. The hosts sit 5th on 33 points from 19 games, while Pereira are bottom of the pile, 20th with just 10 points from the same number of matches. The stakes are simple: Once Caldas are chasing a strong playoff position, Pereira are fighting for pride.

The model leans heavily on that gap. It gives the home win a 72.4 percent probability at 90 confidence, with the double chance 1X at 88.2 percent. Once Caldas arrive on a WDLLW run, Pereira on DLLDD. The expected goals split is lopsided: 1.6942 for the hosts against just 0.4874 for the visitors, though recent xG reads tighter at 0.74 and 0.91, a reminder that form lines can lag the underlying numbers. No injuries are listed on either side, and the head-to-head is mixed, with a 0-0 last April and a 1-0 home win before that.

For bettors, the value hunt starts with the goals markets. Under 2.5 carries a 49.5 percent probability, and both teams to score is tipped No at 53.8 percent, while corners point Under 9.5 at 53.8 percent with an expected 8.7. The correct score leans 1-0 at 15.4 percent, with 1-0 and 2-0 the top scorelines. The honest caveat: those goal markets sit barely above a coin flip, and Pereira's recent xG of 0.91 shows they can create something, so a low-scoring upset is not impossible.

Updated 14 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Once Caldas

Form (last 5)
WLlaneros (H) 1–0 · 10/10/2026DInternacional de Bogota (A) 1–1 · 04/10/2026LBucaramanga (H) 1–3 · 26/09/2026LDeportivo Pasto (A) 0–1 · 20/09/2026WDeportes Tolima (H) 1–0 · 16/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)0.29
xG against (recent avg)0.19
Elo strength rating1480

Deportivo Pereira

Form (last 5)
DDeportivo Cali (H) 0–0 · 10/10/2026LCucuta (A) 0–4 · 04/10/2026LSanta Fe (H) 1–2 · 29/09/2026DInternacional de Bogota (H) 0–0 · 26/09/2026DÁguilas Doradas (A) 2–2 · 18/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.60
xG against (recent avg)0.61
Elo strength rating1307
Once CaldasDeportivo Pereira
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
4
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.29
0.60
xG against (recent avg)
0.19
0.61
Elo strength rating
1480
1307

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Once Caldas

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Deportivo Pereira

Winless 9
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primera A

Once Caldas

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Deportivo Pereira

Worst attack (0.70 goals/game)

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Once Caldas at home · Deportivo Pereira away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Once Caldas (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–3D–5L
W 9
D 3
L 5
Played17
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2

Deportivo Pereira (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–6D–9L
W 1
D 6
L 9
Played16
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets2
Failed to score10
Once Caldas (home)Deportivo Pereira (away)
W 9
D 3
L 5
W 1
D 6
L 9
Played
17
16
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.70
Clean sheets
4
2
Failed to score
2
10

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
15.4%
2–0
13.7%
3–0
7.7%
2–1
6.7%
3–1
3.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Deportivo Pereira 2 wins · 3 draws · Once Caldas 5 wins · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10

2
3
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
10 Apr 2026 Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Once Caldas Primera A
06 Sep 2025 Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
03 Aug 2025 Deportivo Pereira 2–1 Once Caldas Primera A
22 Mar 2025 Deportivo Pereira 1–1 Once Caldas Primera A
20 Feb 2025 Once Caldas 3–1 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
03 Sep 2024 Deportivo Pereira 0–1 Once Caldas Primera A
23 Feb 2024 Once Caldas 1–2 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
10 Sep 2023 Deportivo Pereira 1–2 Once Caldas Primera A
13 Aug 2023 Once Caldas 1–0 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
25 Mar 2023 Once Caldas 1–1 Deportivo Pereira Primera A

📈 Recent Form

Once Caldas

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Llaneros Home 1–0 W
04/10 Internacional de Bogota Away 1–1 D
26/09 Bucaramanga Home 1–3 L
20/09 Deportivo Pasto Away 0–1 L
16/09 Deportes Tolima Home 1–0 W

Deportivo Pereira

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Deportivo Cali Home 0–0 D
04/10 Cucuta Away 0–4 L
29/09 Santa Fe Home 1–2 L
26/09 Internacional de Bogota Home 0–0 D
18/09 Águilas Doradas Away 2–2 D

📊 Season Comparison — Primera A

Once Caldas #5 · 33 pts —  Deportivo Pereira #20 · 10 pts

Once Caldas

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–9D–2L
W 8
D 9
L 2
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets6
Failed to score5
Yellow cards89
Red cards4
xG for (avg)0.29
xG against (avg)0.19
Corners for (avg)5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)4/1

Deportivo Pereira

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–7D–11L
W 1
D 7
L 11
Played19
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets7
Failed to score17
Yellow cards81
Red cards8
xG for (avg)0.60
xG against (avg)0.61
Corners for (avg)4.30
Penalties (scored/missed)3/1
Once CaldasDeportivo Pereira
W 8
D 9
L 2
W 1
D 7
L 11
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.60
Clean sheets
6
7
Failed to score
5
17
Yellow cards
89
81
Red cards
4
8
xG for (avg)
0.29
0.60
xG against (avg)
0.19
0.61
Corners for (avg)
5.50
4.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/1
3/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Once Caldas

5
0-15
11
7
16-30
2
7
31-45
8
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
9
10
76-90
13
scored conceded

Deportivo Pereira

6
0-15
3
6
16-30
1
8
31-45
6
10
46-60
3
8
61-75
6
11
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws