Predictions β†’ England EFL Trophy

Newport County vs Crystal Palace U21

Next match: Tue, 03 Nov 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Group South - 5 β€’ Rodney Parade

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipOddsConfidenceProbabilityMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home β€”82% 52.8% β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X β€”74% 76% β€” β€”
BTTS No β€”79% 44.6% β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 β€”80% 47.4% β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 β€”65% 8.8% β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8 exp.) Under 9.5 β€”65% 55.8% β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Newport County 1.64 – 0.96 Crystal Palace U21 Β· expected total 2.60

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Newport County

Form (last 5)
DRotherham (A) 2–2 Β· 20/10/2026DYork (H) 1–1 Β· 17/10/2026WColchester (H) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026DGillingham (A) 0–0 Β· 03/10/2026WGrimsby (H) 2–1 Β· 26/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.92
xG against (recent avg)0.40

Crystal Palace U21

Form (last 5)
WLeeds United U21 (A) 4–1 Β· 18/10/2026LAnderlecht U21 (H) 1–4 Β· 14/10/2026LPlymouth (A) 1–5 Β· 22/09/2026LBlackburn Rovers U21 (H) 0–1 Β· 19/09/2026WSwindon Town (A) 2–1 Β· 15/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)3.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.00
xG against (recent avg)0.00
Newport CountyCrystal Palace U21
DRotherham (A) 2–2 Β· 20/10/2026DYork (H) 1–1 Β· 17/10/2026WColchester (H) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026DGillingham (A) 0–0 Β· 03/10/2026WGrimsby (H) 2–1 Β· 26/09/2026
WLeeds United U21 (A) 4–1 Β· 18/10/2026LAnderlecht U21 (H) 1–4 Β· 14/10/2026LPlymouth (A) 1–5 Β· 22/09/2026LBlackburn Rovers U21 (H) 0–1 Β· 19/09/2026WSwindon Town (A) 2–1 Β· 15/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
2.00
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
3.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.92
0.00
xG against (recent avg)
0.40
0.00

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Newport County

Unbeaten 8
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Crystal Palace U21

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” EFL Trophy

Newport County

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Crystal Palace U21

3rd best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 40 EFL Trophy teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Newport County at home Β· Crystal Palace U21 away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Newport County (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–0L
D 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Crystal Palace U21 (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–1L
W 1
L 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Newport County (home)Crystal Palace U21 (away)
D 1
W 1
L 1
Played
1
2
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
3.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8.8%
2–0
8%
2–1
7.7%
3–0
4.3%
3–1
4.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Newport County

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/10 Rotherham Away 2–2 D
17/10 York Home 1–1 D
10/10 Colchester Home 1–0 W
03/10 Gillingham Away 0–0 D
26/09 Grimsby Home 2–1 W

Crystal Palace U21

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/10 Leeds United U21 Away 4–1 W
14/10 Anderlecht U21 Home 1–4 L
22/09 Plymouth Away 1–5 L
19/09 Blackburn Rovers U21 Home 0–1 L
15/09 Swindon Town Away 2–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” EFL Trophy

Newport County

Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.92
xG against (avg)0.40
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

Crystal Palace U21

Played2
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards2
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.00
xG against (avg)0.00
Corners for (avg)2.90
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Newport CountyCrystal Palace U21
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
3.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
0
2
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.92
0.00
xG against (avg)
0.40
0.00
Corners for (avg)
4.20
2.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Newport County

0-15
2
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Crystal Palace U21

1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: EFL Trophy predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws