Predictions β†’ England EFL Trophy

Port Vale vs Manchester City U21

Next match: Tue, 27 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Group North - 4 β€’ Vale Park β€’ 🌦 8.2Β°C, 22 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipOddsConfidenceProbabilityMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home β€”83% 55.3% β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X β€”75% 76.4% β€” β€”
BTTS No β€”80% 46.7% β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 β€”80% 46.8% β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 β€”64% 7.9% β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.4 exp.) Under 9.5 β€”61% 52.2% β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Port Vale 1.76 – 1.01 Manchester City U21 Β· expected total 2.77

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Port Vale

Form (last 5)
DGillingham (A) 1–1 Β· 20/10/2026WChesterfield (H) 1–0 Β· 17/10/2026WGrimsby (H) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026WMansfield Town (H) 2–0 Β· 06/10/2026LWalsall (A) 0–2 Β· 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.54
xG against (recent avg)0.71

Manchester City U21

Form (last 5)
LTottenham Hotspur U21 (A) 2–4 Β· 19/09/2026LChesterfield (A) 3–5 Β· 15/09/2026LNottingham Forest U21 (A) 1–2 Β· 28/08/2026WWolves U21 (H) 4–0 Β· 24/08/2026WMansfield Town (A) 4–1 Β· 19/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)3.50
Goals conceded (season avg)3.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.00
xG against (recent avg)0.00
Port ValeManchester City U21
DGillingham (A) 1–1 Β· 20/10/2026WChesterfield (H) 1–0 Β· 17/10/2026WGrimsby (H) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026WMansfield Town (H) 2–0 Β· 06/10/2026LWalsall (A) 0–2 Β· 19/09/2026
LTottenham Hotspur U21 (A) 2–4 Β· 19/09/2026LChesterfield (A) 3–5 Β· 15/09/2026LNottingham Forest U21 (A) 1–2 Β· 28/08/2026WWolves U21 (H) 4–0 Β· 24/08/2026WMansfield Town (A) 4–1 Β· 19/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
3.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
3.00
Win streak (best this season)
0
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.54
0.00
xG against (recent avg)
0.71
0.00

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Port Vale

Unbeaten 4
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
0/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Manchester City U21

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” EFL Trophy

Port Vale

2nd worst BTTS rate (17%) Worst Over 2.5 rate (0%)

Manchester City U21

3rd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Rank among 40 EFL Trophy teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Port Vale at home Β· Manchester City U21 away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Port Vale (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Manchester City U21 (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–1L
W 1
L 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)3.50
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Port Vale (home)Manchester City U21 (away)
W 1
W 1
L 1
Played
1
2
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
3.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
3.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
7.9%
2–1
7.8%
2–0
7.7%
3–1
4.6%
3–0
4.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Port Vale

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/10 Gillingham Away 1–1 D
17/10 Chesterfield Home 1–0 W
10/10 Grimsby Home 1–0 W
06/10 Mansfield Town Home 2–0 W
19/09 Walsall Away 0–2 L

Manchester City U21

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Tottenham Hotspur U21 Away 2–4 L
15/09 Chesterfield Away 3–5 L
28/08 Nottingham Forest U21 Away 1–2 L
24/08 Wolves U21 Home 4–0 W
19/08 Mansfield Town Away 4–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” EFL Trophy

Port Vale

Played2
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.54
xG against (avg)0.71
Corners for (avg)5.50
Penalties (scored/missed)3/2

Manchester City U21

Played2
Goals scored (avg)3.50
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.00
xG against (avg)0.00
Corners for (avg)4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Port ValeManchester City U21
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
3.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
3.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
3
3
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.54
0.00
xG against (avg)
0.71
0.00
Corners for (avg)
5.50
4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/2
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Port Vale

0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
3
scored conceded

Manchester City U21

1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: EFL Trophy predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws