Predictions → England EFL Trophy

Plymouth vs Swindon Town

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Tue, 10 Nov 2026 • 22:00 UTC+3 • Group South - 5 • Home Park • 🌦 12.5°C, 4 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Home Current price not available49.5% —
Double Chance 12 Current price not available77.6% —
BTTS Yes Current price not available71.6% · No 28.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Current price not available72.5% · Under 27.5% —
Correct Score 2-1 Current price not available8.7% —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.1 exp.) Over 9.5 Current price not available60.9% · Under 39.1% —

🧠 Match Preview

Model view

Model 1X2 split: Plymouth 49.5% · Draw 22.4% · Swindon Town 28.1%. Selected outcome: Plymouth win.

Goals

Model expected goals: Plymouth 2.17, Swindon Town 1.61, expected total 3.78.

Price check

No current price is available, so model EV cannot be calculated.

Form / H2H

Plymouth: D-W-L-L-W in their last five matches.
Swindon Town: W-D-W-D-L in their last five matches.
Last meeting: Swindon Town 3–1 Plymouth, 29 Jul 2023.
Historical form, not a probability for the next match.

Limitations

Lineups, injuries and late team news can change the outlook. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Plymouth

Form (last 5)
DWLLW
Goals scored (season avg)3.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Best league winning streak this season2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.87
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.93

Swindon Town

Form (last 5)
WDWDL
Goals scored (season avg)0.50
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Best league winning streak this season3
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.25
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.17
PlymouthSwindon Town
DWLLW
WDWDL
Goals scored (season avg)
3.50
0.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.50
2.00
Best league winning streak this season
2
3
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.87
1.25
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
0.93
2.17

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Plymouth

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
3/6
No goals conceded
2/6

Swindon Town

Unbeaten 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored a goal
3/6
No goals conceded
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Plymouth at home · Swindon Town away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Plymouth (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)5.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Swindon Town (away)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Plymouth (home)Swindon Town (away)
W 1
Played
1
0
Goals scored (avg)
5.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

2–1
8.72%
3–1
6.3%
2–0
5.42%
3–2
5.08%
1–0
4.19%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Plymouth 4 wins · 1 draw · Swindon Town 4 wins · avg 3.4 goals · BTTS in 6 of 9

4
1
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
29 Jul 2023 Swindon Town 3–1 Plymouth Friendlies Clubs
20 Sep 2022 Swindon Town 1–3 Plymouth EFL Trophy
12 Oct 2021 Plymouth 1–3 Swindon Town EFL Trophy
26 Jan 2021 Swindon Town 0–2 Plymouth League One
03 Nov 2020 Plymouth 4–2 Swindon Town League One
01 Jan 2020 Plymouth 1–2 Swindon Town League Two
12 Oct 2019 Swindon Town 1–1 Plymouth League Two
08 Oct 2019 Swindon Town 0–3 Plymouth EFL Trophy
09 Oct 2018 Plymouth 0–3 Swindon Town EFL Trophy

📈 Recent Form

Plymouth

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Reading Home 0–0 D
24/10 Cambridge United Away 3–2 W
20/10 Stevenage Away 0–3 L
17/10 Huddersfield Home 0–2 L
10/10 AFC Wimbledon Home 2–1 W
03/10 Leyton Orient Away 2–0 W
26/09 Burton Albion Home 0–1 L
22/09 Crystal Palace U21 Home 5–1 W
19/09 Blackpool Away 4–2 W
12/09 Barnsley Home 3–0 W

Swindon Town

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Rotherham Home 2–1 W
24/10 Bristol Rovers Away 0–0 D
20/10 Barnet Away 3–1 W
17/10 Walsall Home 1–1 D
10/10 Crewe Home 0–1 L
03/10 Rochdale Away 0–1 L
26/09 Accrington ST Home 1–1 D
22/09 Newport County Home 0–2 L
19/09 Salford City Away 0–1 L
15/09 Crystal Palace U21 Home 1–2 L

📊 Season Comparison: EFL Trophy

Plymouth

Played2
Goals scored (avg)3.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards1
Red cards0
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.87
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.93
Corners for (avg)5.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

Swindon Town

Played2
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.25
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.17
Corners for (avg)5.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
PlymouthSwindon Town
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
3.50
0.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
2.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
1
Yellow cards
1
3
Red cards
0
0
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.87
1.25
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
0.93
2.17
Corners for (avg)
5.30
5.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/1
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Plymouth

1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Swindon Town

1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: EFL Trophy predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws