Predictions β†’ England League One

Luton vs Leicester

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 11:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 13 β€’ Kenilworth Road

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 77% 37.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 72% 72.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 84% 55.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 53.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-1 62% 6.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~13.5 exp.) Over 9.5 70% 59.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Luton 1.81 – 1.64 Leicester Β· expected total 3.46

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Luton

Form (last 5)
LMilton Keynes Dons (A) 1–2 Β· 17/10/2026WWycombe (A) 4–1 Β· 10/10/2026WIpswich Town U21 (H) 6–0 Β· 22/09/2026LBradford (H) 0–1 Β· 19/09/2026LStevenage (A) 1–2 Β· 10/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.41
xG against (recent avg)0.97
Elo strength rating1598

Leicester

Form (last 5)
WDoncaster (H) 2–1 Β· 17/10/2026LPeterborough (H) 1–3 Β· 10/10/2026LStevenage (A) 1–2 Β· 06/10/2026WFulham U21 (H) 6–1 Β· 22/09/2026DBarnsley (A) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.22
xG against (recent avg)0.89
Elo strength rating1375
LutonLeicester
Goals scored (season avg)
1.90
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.90
1.70
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.41
1.22
xG against (recent avg)
0.97
0.89
Elo strength rating
1598
1375

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Luton

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Leicester

BTTS
6/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” League One

Luton

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Leicester

Best BTTS rate (100%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 24 League One teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Luton at home Β· Leicester away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Luton (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1

Leicester (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–0L
W 1
D 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Luton (home)Leicester (away)
W 1
D 2
L 1
W 1
D 3
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.30
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
6.7%
2–0
4.1%
3–1
4.1%
1–0
3.8%
3–2
3.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Leicester 1 win Β· 0 draws Β· Luton 0 wins Β· avg 4 goals Β· BTTS in 0 of 1

1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
24 Sep 2019 Luton 0–4 Leicester League Cup

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Luton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Milton Keynes Dons Away 1–2 L
10/10 Wycombe Away 4–1 W
22/09 Ipswich Town U21 Home 6–0 W
19/09 Bradford Home 0–1 L
10/09 Stevenage Away 1–2 L

Leicester

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Doncaster Home 2–1 W
10/10 Peterborough Home 1–3 L
06/10 Stevenage Away 1–2 L
22/09 Fulham U21 Home 6–1 W
19/09 Barnsley Away 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” League One

Luton #16 Β· 11 pts β€”  Leicester #14 Β· 12 pts

Luton

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–4L
W 3
D 2
L 4
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards19
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.41
xG against (avg)0.97
Corners for (avg)7.80
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Leicester

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–3L
W 3
D 3
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards15
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.22
xG against (avg)0.89
Corners for (avg)8.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
LutonLeicester
W 3
D 2
L 4
W 3
D 3
L 3
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
1.70
Clean sheets
1
2
Failed to score
1
2
Yellow cards
19
15
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
1.41
1.22
xG against (avg)
0.97
0.89
Corners for (avg)
7.80
8.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Luton

2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
5
scored conceded

Leicester

3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League One predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws