Stevenage vs Plymouth

Next match: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 • 18:45 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Broadhall Way

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Draw 3.34 → 3.5 ▲5%	60%	26.9%	3.50	Betfair	27%	-0.1 pp
Double Chance	X2	65%	63.1%	1.50	Bet365	63.6%	-0.5 pp
BTTS	Yes	82%	51.6%	1.67	William Hill	56.3%	-4.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	78%	43.8%	1.95	Pinnacle	49.4%	-5.6 pp
Correct Score	1-1	68%	10.5%	6.60	Betano	7.5%	+3 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.3 exp.)	Over 9.5	62%	53.6%	1.87	Betano	51.2%	+2.4 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Stevenage 1.39 – 1.48 Plymouth · expected total 2.87

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Stevenage

Form (last 5)

LBradford (A) 0–2 · 17/10/2026 WWigan (H) 1–0 · 10/10/2026WLeicester (H) 2–1 · 06/10/2026WWalsall (A) 6–1 · 22/09/2026LLeyton Orient (A) 0–1 · 19/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.10

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.01

xG against (recent avg)0.22

Elo strength rating1630

Plymouth

Form (last 5)

WAFC Wimbledon (H) 2–1 · 10/10/2026 WLeyton Orient (A) 2–0 · 03/10/2026 LBurton Albion (H) 0–1 · 26/09/2026WCrystal Palace U21 (H) 5–1 · 22/09/2026WBlackpool (A) 4–2 · 19/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)1.20

Win streak (best this season)3

xG for (recent avg)1.23

xG against (recent avg)0.61

Elo strength rating1597

StevenagePlymouth

LBradford (A) 0–2 · 17/10/2026 WWigan (H) 1–0 · 10/10/2026WLeicester (H) 2–1 · 06/10/2026WWalsall (A) 6–1 · 22/09/2026LLeyton Orient (A) 0–1 · 19/09/2026

WAFC Wimbledon (H) 2–1 · 10/10/2026 WLeyton Orient (A) 2–0 · 03/10/2026 LBurton Albion (H) 0–1 · 26/09/2026WCrystal Palace U21 (H) 5–1 · 22/09/2026WBlackpool (A) 4–2 · 19/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.30

1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.10

1.20

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.01

1.23

xG against (recent avg)

0.22

0.61

Elo strength rating

1630

1597

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Stevenage

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Plymouth

Won 2 in a row

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Stevenage at home · Plymouth away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Stevenage (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L

W 2

D 1

L 1

Played4

Goals scored (avg)1.50

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Plymouth (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–1L

W 3

D 1

L 1

Played5

Goals scored (avg)2.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets1

Failed to score1

Stevenage (home)Plymouth (away)

W 2

D 1

L 1

W 3

D 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.50

2.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

1.40

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–1

10.5%

0–0

5.6%

2–2

4.9%

3–3

1.1%

4–4

0.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Plymouth 7 wins · 1 draw · Stevenage 2 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
17 Mar 2026	Plymouth	1–0	Stevenage	League One
01 Jan 2026	Stevenage	1–1	Plymouth	League One
25 Jan 2020	Stevenage	1–2	Plymouth	League Two
29 Dec 2019	Plymouth	2–1	Stevenage	League Two
10 Nov 2018	Plymouth	1–0	Stevenage	FA Cup
14 Jan 2017	Plymouth	4–2	Stevenage	League Two
08 Oct 2016	Stevenage	1–2	Plymouth	League Two
16 Jan 2016	Plymouth	3–2	Stevenage	League Two
05 Sep 2015	Stevenage	2–1	Plymouth	League Two
03 Mar 2015	Stevenage	1–0	Plymouth	League Two

📈 Recent Form

Stevenage

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
17/10	Bradford	Away	0–2	L
10/10	Wigan	Home	1–0	W
06/10	Leicester	Home	2–1	W
22/09	Walsall	Away	6–1	W
19/09	Leyton Orient	Away	0–1	L

Plymouth

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	AFC Wimbledon	Home	2–1	W
03/10	Leyton Orient	Away	2–0	W
26/09	Burton Albion	Home	0–1	L
22/09	Crystal Palace U21	Home	5–1	W
19/09	Blackpool	Away	4–2	W

📊 Season Comparison — League One

Stevenage #12 · 12 pts — Plymouth #4 · 19 pts

Stevenage

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–3L

W 3

D 3

L 3

Played9

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.10

Clean sheets2

Failed to score3

Yellow cards14

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.01

xG against (avg)0.22

Corners for (avg)4.70

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Plymouth

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–1D–4L

W 6

D 1

L 4

Played11

Goals scored (avg)1.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets3

Failed to score2

Yellow cards15

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.23

xG against (avg)0.61

Corners for (avg)5.30

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

StevenagePlymouth

W 3

D 3

L 3

W 6

D 1

L 4

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.30

1.80

Goals conceded (avg)

1.10

1.20

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.01

1.23

xG against (avg)

0.22

0.61

Corners for (avg)

4.70

5.30

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Stevenage

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Plymouth

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League One predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws