Predictions → England National League

Hartlepool vs AFC Hornchurch

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 14 • Victoria Park

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS — No
Model 52.7% · Market best price ≈ 46.5% · Edge +8.5 pp
Best odds 2.15 BetVictor 2.151xBet 2.15Marathonbet 2.11
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¼ Kelly sizing: 2.9% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Draw 68% 28% — — — —
Double Chance 1X 68% 67.6% — — — —
BTTS Yes 78% 43.4% — — — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 50.1% — — — —
Correct Score 1-1 71% 11.9% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Hartlepool 1.27 – 1.07 AFC Hornchurch · expected total 2.34

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Hartlepool

Form (last 5)
WForest Green (A) 4–2 · 10/10/2026LTamworth (H) 0–1 · 03/10/2026LHarrogate Town (H) 0–1 · 29/09/2026LScunthorpe (A) 1–4 · 26/09/2026LWorthing (H) 1–3 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1462

AFC Hornchurch

Form (last 5)
WEastleigh (H) 2–0 · 10/10/2026LHarrogate Town (A) 0–3 · 03/10/2026WAldershot Town (H) 2–1 · 29/09/2026LAltrincham (A) 0–3 · 26/09/2026WScunthorpe (H) 1–0 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1392
HartlepoolAFC Hornchurch
Goals scored (season avg)
0.90
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.50
1.50
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
Elo strength rating
1462
1392

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Hartlepool

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

AFC Hornchurch

BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — National League

Hartlepool

2nd worst attack (0.90 goals/game)

AFC Hornchurch

Worst BTTS rate (17%) 2nd best clean sheets (4)

Rank among 24 National League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Hartlepool at home · AFC Hornchurch away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Hartlepool (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–4L
W 2
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3

AFC Hornchurch (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–5L
W 2
L 5
Played7
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets0
Failed to score4
Hartlepool (home)AFC Hornchurch (away)
W 2
L 4
W 2
L 5
Played
6
7
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
2.40
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
3
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–1
11.9%
0–0
9%
2–2
3.7%
3–3
0.6%
4–4
0%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

📈 Recent Form

Hartlepool

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Forest Green Away 4–2 W
03/10 Tamworth Home 0–1 L
29/09 Harrogate Town Home 0–1 L
26/09 Scunthorpe Away 1–4 L
19/09 Worthing Home 1–3 L

AFC Hornchurch

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Eastleigh Home 2–0 W
03/10 Harrogate Town Away 0–3 L
29/09 Aldershot Town Home 2–1 W
26/09 Altrincham Away 0–3 L
19/09 Scunthorpe Home 1–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — National League

Hartlepool #20 · 12 pts —  AFC Hornchurch #9 · 21 pts

Hartlepool

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–0D–9L
W 4
L 9
Played13
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets3
Failed to score5
Yellow cards29
Red cards3
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

AFC Hornchurch

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–0D–6L
W 7
L 6
Played13
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets4
Failed to score5
Yellow cards23
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
HartlepoolAFC Hornchurch
W 4
L 9
W 7
L 6
Played
13
13
Goals scored (avg)
0.90
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.50
Clean sheets
3
4
Failed to score
5
5
Yellow cards
29
23
Red cards
3
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Hartlepool

0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
3
scored conceded

AFC Hornchurch

2
0-15
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: National League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws