Rouen vs Bastia
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 16:45 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Stade Robert Diochon • ⛅ 8.5°C, 7 km/h partly cloudy
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 45.4% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | Current price not available | 74.8% | — |
| BTTS | No | Current price not available | 51.1% · Yes 48.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 56.8% · Over 43.2% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Current price not available | 11.5% | — |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
Rouen · Home
Rouen have won three of their last five, and all three wins came at home: 2-1 against Concarneau, 2-0 against Bourg-en-bresse 01 and 1-0 against Aubagne. Their two defeats both came on the road, so the venue split is the clearest pattern in their recent record.
Bastia · Away
Bastia have drawn three of their last five and scored just 5 goals in that run, failing to score once. Their only away results in that stretch were a 1-1 draw at Concarneau and a 0-1 defeat at Gobelins.
Rouen's home run meets Bastia's draws
The latest head-to-head is a warning rather than a guide: Bastia won 0-2 at Rouen in July 2023. Since then, though, Rouen's recent record is built entirely at home, where all 3 of their wins arrived, while Bastia have drawn 3 of their last 5 and taken 1 point from 2 away matches. The model gives Rouen 1.42 expected goals against Bastia's 0.99, and a 1-0 correct score fits an Under 2.5 lean at 56.8%. The evidence supports Rouen win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 10:47 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Rouen 1.42 – 0.99 Bastia · expected total 2.41
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Rouen
Bastia
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Ligue 3
Rouen
Bastia
Rank among 18 Ligue 3 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Rouen at home · Bastia away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Rouen (home)
Bastia (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Bastia 1 win · 0 draws · Rouen 0 wins · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 0 of 1
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2023 | Rouen | 0–2 | Bastia | Friendlies Clubs |
📈 Recent Form
Rouen
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Concarneau | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 17/10 | Gobelins | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 03/10 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 24/09 | Caen | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 19/09 | Aubagne | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Thionville Lusitanos | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 03/09 | Valenciennes | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 29/08 | Villefranche | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 20/08 | Quevilly | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 14/08 | Orleans | Away | 2–1 | W |
Bastia
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Quevilly | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 17/10 | Concarneau | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 01/10 | Orleans | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 26/09 | Gobelins | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 17/09 | Cannes | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 12/09 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Amiens | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 27/08 | Caen | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 20/08 | Versailles | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 14/08 | Aubagne | Away | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Ligue 3
Rouen #2 · 23 pts · Bastia #11 · 15 pts
Rouen
Bastia
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Rouen
Bastia
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Ligue 3 predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws