Predictions → France Ligue 3

Rouen vs Bastia

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 16:45 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Stade Robert Diochon • ⛅ 8.5°C, 7 km/h partly cloudy

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Home Current price not available45.4% —
Double Chance 1X Current price not available74.8% —
BTTS No Current price not available51.1% · Yes 48.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Current price not available56.8% · Over 43.2% —
Correct Score 1-0 Current price not available11.5% —

🧠 Match Preview

Rouen · Home

Rouen have won three of their last five, and all three wins came at home: 2-1 against Concarneau, 2-0 against Bourg-en-bresse 01 and 1-0 against Aubagne. Their two defeats both came on the road, so the venue split is the clearest pattern in their recent record.

Bastia · Away

Bastia have drawn three of their last five and scored just 5 goals in that run, failing to score once. Their only away results in that stretch were a 1-1 draw at Concarneau and a 0-1 defeat at Gobelins.

Rouen's home run meets Bastia's draws

The latest head-to-head is a warning rather than a guide: Bastia won 0-2 at Rouen in July 2023. Since then, though, Rouen's recent record is built entirely at home, where all 3 of their wins arrived, while Bastia have drawn 3 of their last 5 and taken 1 point from 2 away matches. The model gives Rouen 1.42 expected goals against Bastia's 0.99, and a 1-0 correct score fits an Under 2.5 lean at 56.8%. The evidence supports Rouen win.

Published 01 Nov 2026 10:47 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Rouen 1.42 – 0.99 Bastia · expected total 2.41

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Rouen

Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Best league winning streak this season5
Elo strength rating1628

Bastia

Form (last 5)
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Best league winning streak this season1
Elo strength rating1386
RouenBastia
Goals scored (season avg)
1.80
0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.80
1.10
Best league winning streak this season
5
1
Elo strength rating
1628
1386

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Rouen

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored a goal
6/6
No goals conceded
3/6

Bastia

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
0/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Ligue 3

Rouen

2nd best attack (1.80 goals/game, season) 3rd best defence (0.80 conceded/game, season) Best Over 2.5 rate (67%, last 6) Best clean sheets (6, season)

Bastia

2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (0%, last 6)

Rank among 18 Ligue 3 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Rouen at home · Bastia away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Rouen (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–0L
W 4
D 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets4
Failed to score1

Bastia (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–1L
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.40
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Rouen (home)Bastia (away)
W 4
D 2
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played
6
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
0.40
Clean sheets
4
3
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–0
11.48%
2–0
9.02%
2–1
8.95%
3–0
4.25%
3–1
4.22%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Bastia 1 win · 0 draws · Rouen 0 wins · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 0 of 1

1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
22 Jul 2023 Rouen 0–2 Bastia Friendlies Clubs

📈 Recent Form

Rouen

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Concarneau Home 2–1 W
17/10 Gobelins Away 1–3 L
03/10 Bourg-en-bresse 01 Home 2–0 W
24/09 Caen Away 2–3 L
19/09 Aubagne Home 1–0 W
12/09 Thionville Lusitanos Away 4–0 W
03/09 Valenciennes Home 1–1 D
29/08 Villefranche Away 2–0 W
20/08 Quevilly Home 3–0 W
14/08 Orleans Away 2–1 W

Bastia

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Quevilly Home 2–0 W
17/10 Concarneau Away 1–1 D
01/10 Orleans Home 1–1 D
26/09 Gobelins Away 0–1 L
17/09 Cannes Home 1–1 D
12/09 Bourg-en-bresse 01 Away 1–0 W
05/09 Amiens Home 0–3 L
27/08 Caen Away 1–0 W
20/08 Versailles Home 2–3 L
14/08 Aubagne Away 1–0 W

📊 Season Comparison: Ligue 3

Rouen #2 · 23 pts ·  Bastia #11 · 15 pts

Rouen

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–2D–2L
W 7
D 2
L 2
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets6
Failed to score1
Yellow cards20
Red cards1
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

Bastia

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–4L
W 4
D 3
L 4
Played11
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Yellow cards39
Red cards3
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
RouenBastia
W 7
D 2
L 2
W 4
D 3
L 4
Played
11
11
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.10
Clean sheets
6
4
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
20
39
Red cards
1
3
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Rouen

1
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
76-90
6
scored conceded

Bastia

2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Ligue 3 predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws